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Author Topic: ASICMINER AUCTION 2000 sahres.  (Read 15963 times)
Deprived
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February 18, 2013, 01:18:28 AM
 #41

Right, I understand that...but that's surely not the only aspect going into this evaluation?

At 12TH/s (their starting projection before ramping up to 50TH/s or more), it's 30MH/s per share (400,000 shares). These 2000 shares up for offer are worth 60GH/s...in August 2012 (at IPO price of .1BTC), it was worth 200BTC, or $2,000 (at roughly $10 per BTC back then).

So now you're telling me that 6 months of risk (and BTC rallying) has resulted in $2,000 in shares suddenly becoming worth $20,500? [2000 shares x .38BTC minimum valuation x $27 USD/BTC]
Even at 50TH/s, it's only 125MH/s per share...2000 of which would result in 250GH/s. In my mind, I simply can't justify how that could be worth a minimum of 760 Bitcoins, even when factoring in risk...

Clearly there's something I'm missing...or maybe people bidding for these shares haven't done their math yet?

You're missing a whole bunch of things.  Here's the most obvious:

People aren't investing for the 12 TH/s they have now.  That would be like me claiming people investing in your mining company are investing for the ZERO TH/s you have now.

The investment is for the long-term value.  Where I disagree with you (and I KNOW we disagree - as you wouldn't have started your company if you agreed) is that I believe in the medium to long-term only companies with a significant edge of some kind will be able to make a profit from BTC mining.   That's because the barrier to entry to mining is so low that all the time it's profitable to do, more people will keep getting in.  And even when it becomes unprofitable more will STILL come in - those doing it for fun, those with an inability to do math and those running mining companies who take a cut of revenue and pass the losses on to investors.

Manufacturing your own ASICs is about the biggest such edge possible - when hardware costs 10% of what it costs competitors you have a massive advantage.  Add to that Chinese power/labour costs and you have a company that there's just no way the likes of you can compete against - they can mine profitably long after you're making a loss.

Not only do investors get that mining - but also a share of profits from sales to the mathematically challenged who mine or who run mining companies selling investment to those with even less ability in math.

That's what's being sold.

Oh - and if you DO want to look at just the first 12 GH/s, do remember that the 200k BitFountain get nothing until the other shares (the type being sold here) have got back their initial 0.1 BTC.  That adds just over .05 BTC to the value alone.
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February 18, 2013, 01:55:58 AM
 #42

People aren't investing for the 12 TH/s they have now.  That would be like me claiming people investing in your mining company are investing for the ZERO TH/s you have now.

Ha, touché Wink

The investment is for the long-term value.  Where I disagree with you (and I KNOW we disagree - as you wouldn't have started your company if you agreed) is that I believe in the medium to long-term only companies with a significant edge of some kind will be able to make a profit from BTC mining.   That's because the barrier to entry to mining is so low that all the time it's profitable to do, more people will keep getting in.  And even when it becomes unprofitable more will STILL come in - those doing it for fun, those with an inability to do math and those running mining companies who take a cut of revenue and pass the losses on to investors.

Manufacturing your own ASICs is about the biggest such edge possible - when hardware costs 10% of what it costs competitors you have a massive advantage.  Add to that Chinese power/labour costs and you have a company that there's just no way the likes of you can compete against - they can mine profitably long after you're making a loss.

I think the majority of the valuation comes from the fact that profits (and dividends along with it) are going to enormous until both Avalon and BFL kick it into gear, combined with the long term prospects (assuming ASICMiner continues to develop more advanced hardware as the years go on).

That said, I still agree with you on pretty much all the points made..and I, personally, value long term investments quite a bit more. But I do know most Bitcoin investors tend to have a short attention span, which is why I kept my company's mining fund more on the medium term Cheesy ..the security that starts after the bond holders are paid back is the long term part of my company Wink

Anyway, I digressed. TL;DR - I see the points made, and although I agree that they add value I am still wary about the price tag for such a valuation.

Thanks for laying it out there, Deprived Smiley

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February 18, 2013, 03:22:37 AM
 #43

Thanks for doing this while I was sleeping.  Smiley

NameNumber of sharespps
PM1250.45
TradeFortress1000.41
mb300sd4000.40
Sal002250.39
wachtwoord250.39
Sukrim750.39
TradeFortress5000.39
ahdinosaur1250.38
BlackLilac 2000.38
ghostshirt 750.38
Vezunchik 2500.38
PM2 2000.38
-------OUTBID------------------------
Name           Number of sharespps
PM2 2000.38
keystroke 2500.38
Vezunchik 1500.38


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February 18, 2013, 03:59:52 AM
 #44

25@0.5
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February 18, 2013, 07:46:31 AM
 #45

Someone mess up here?

500 @ 0.4

Thanks for doing this while I was sleeping.  Smiley

NameNumber of sharespps
PM1250.45
TradeFortress1000.41
mb300sd4000.40
Sal002250.39
wachtwoord250.39
Sukrim750.39
TradeFortress5000.39
ahdinosaur1250.38
BlackLilac 2000.38
ghostshirt 750.38
Vezunchik 2500.38
PM2 2000.38
-------OUTBID------------------------
Name           Number of sharespps
PM2 2000.38
keystroke 2500.38
Vezunchik 1500.38


1D7FJWRzeKa4SLmTznd3JpeNU13L1ErEco
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February 18, 2013, 08:33:37 AM
 #46


NameNumber of sharespps
xiangfu250.5
PM1250.45
TradeFortress1000.41
mb300sd5000.40
Sal002250.39
wachtwoord250.39
Sukrim750.39
TradeFortress5000.39
ahdinosaur1250.38
BlackLilac 2000.38
ghostshirt 750.38
Vezunchik 2500.38
PM2 750.38
-------OUTBID------------------------
Name           Number of sharespps
PM2 3250.38
keystroke 2500.38
Vezunchik 1500.38


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February 18, 2013, 08:46:52 AM
 #47

Thanks for doing this while I was sleeping.  Smiley

No problem.


That was me, sorry. But I see it's fixed already.
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February 18, 2013, 09:05:26 AM
 #48

I'm starting to wonder if BFL never ships and Avlon never ships how many BTC will ASICMiner have in a year?

Avalon clearly is having issues with it's first batch (like only a prototype) and BFL is always 4 to 6 weeks (no prototype)?

Hmm...

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February 18, 2013, 11:55:47 AM
 #49

75 @ 0.39
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February 18, 2013, 02:05:21 PM
 #50

PM 3

"Sory, I must have read over that.

PLS make it 50 for 0,45 each."

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February 18, 2013, 02:07:52 PM
 #51

Update from PM2

"Hey Chaang Noi

I would like to raise my bid to 400 @ 0.39"

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February 18, 2013, 02:47:50 PM
 #52

200 @ 0.39
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February 18, 2013, 02:49:13 PM
 #53

225 @ 0.41
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February 18, 2013, 02:51:52 PM
 #54

225 @ 0.41

All old bids are now void?

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February 18, 2013, 03:46:36 PM
 #55

Can we get an updated list please?

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February 18, 2013, 03:52:05 PM
 #56

75 @ 0.40 (update)

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February 18, 2013, 05:12:20 PM
 #57

Well...
May be you think anybody can bid 2К for 1 BTC per share (or more realistic 0.6-0.7) and at the last moment say "All old bids are now void"?
Of course no!
But if you want...
250 @ 0.38 # 14
150 @ 0.38 # 28
225 @ 0.41 # 53
And do not forget that 14 and 28 were outbid when I was making 53.


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February 18, 2013, 05:19:34 PM
 #58

Please, do not do it next time. You have changed post numbers which define bids priority order. It is very easy to restore order, but anyone (me Smiley ) can make mistake after such changes.

This is a  Auctions thread. You can't edit posts. And moderators can't do it too, I think...
Oh..oops, sorry for all the posts. Meant to edit my first one, but it appears the "edit" button is missing...  Undecided

Mods, feel free to delete this post and the one before it with just the quote.

Ha, yeah so I noticed Undecided


Well anyway, back to the original question: Goat, why are you offering them at .38 when they were originally purchased at .1? What makes these 2000 shares so special that they require a 380% markup?
Yes, mods can still delete posts in this section. Please use the 'report to moderators' option next time to inform us.
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February 18, 2013, 05:26:27 PM
 #59

Please, do not do it next time. You have changed post numbers which define bids priority order. It is very easy to restore order, but anyone (me Smiley ) can make mistake after such changes.

This is a  Auctions thread. You can't edit posts. And moderators can't do it too, I think...
Oh..oops, sorry for all the posts. Meant to edit my first one, but it appears the "edit" button is missing...  Undecided

Mods, feel free to delete this post and the one before it with just the quote.

Ha, yeah so I noticed Undecided


Well anyway, back to the original question: Goat, why are you offering them at .38 when they were originally purchased at .1? What makes these 2000 shares so special that they require a 380% markup?
Yes, mods can still delete posts in this section. Please use the 'report to moderators' option next time to inform us.
The next posts will just move up, and not affecting the order at all. The original posts deleted were posts of duplicate content.

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February 18, 2013, 05:29:09 PM
 #60

And as I said - deleting messages here is a bad ides - my bid 200 @ 0.39 # 52 was sorted out by my script...
So full bid is
250 @ 0.38 # 14
150 @ 0.38 # 28
200 @ 0.39 # 52
225 @ 0.41 # 53

Well...
May be you think anybody can bid 2К for 1 BTC per share (or more realistic 0.6-0.7) and at the last moment say "All old bids are now void"?
Of course no!
But if you want...
250 @ 0.38 # 14
150 @ 0.38 # 28
225 @ 0.41 # 53
And do not forget that 14 and 28 were outbid when I was making 53.



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