My Present Outlook

[Razick]

I never put too much faith in technical analysis (especially the rudimentary form I'll mention), but going by Bitcoin's cycle up to this point of bubbles followed by a V-shaped trough which getss longer in duration each cycle, I feel like we may have just completed another V. At all ranges, Bitcoin's chart is looking remarkably like it did before the 2013 bubble.

Now I'm not saying we'll have a bubble, but given everything that has happened since the 2013 high, the stability we've seen for months, and the now fairly certain bull cycle that we entered a few months ago, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibilities.

I've been overoptimistic at times so I've tried to just take a long-haul position over the past few years, especially after losing my Mt. Gox and Bitfloor holdings when both exchanges shut down. That said, I'm getting exited. The fundamentals have improved tremendously since December 2013's (admittedly irrational) exuberance.

A few years down the line, we're on the cusp of addressing the Blocksize issue, the regulatory and tax environment, while unfriendly, is at least more certain, we have a halving coming up, and Wall Street is showing more and more interest in the blockchain and even the currency itself. Bitcoin has largely proven itself as a versatile, secure solution.

I'm not going to make bold and detailed predictions because neither I nor anyone else really knows what will happen, but I will say this: I'm as bullish now as I've been in years. We could very well see a spectacular rally on the order of 100, 200 or even 400%+. Sure, it's possible that Bitcoin has matured enough that wild swings are behind us, and it may well be the case that the days of "to the moon" are behind us.

In fact, I hope that's true: Slow, long term growth and stability will serve us much better if adoption is our goal. But the reason I'm most bullish is that those two possibilities (slow, long term growth or a bubble) seem much more likely right now than dropping down a few hundred bucks or a slow decline to obscurity.

The bear market is over. No longer is Bitcoin a toxic asset. We don't know how long the good times will last, but Bitcoin right now has opportunity before it that it hasn't had for awhile.

In other words: I'm cautiously optimistic.

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[afbitcoins]

Bear market was over ages ago. But yes I'm cautiously optimistic too. Lets do this.

[Yakamoto]

Cautiously optimistic is definitely the best way to go about this recent increase in the price.

As for your analysis, I liked it. It definitely offered some fresh perspectives as opposed to the technical analysis that you say you don't like.

I would like to see more of these in the future.

[maokoto]

Third Cautiously optimistic here lol. The pattern of going up to the 450$-500$ and then going down has repeated several times. Perhaps this one will go higher if many buy expecting this to be the halving pump, but it is better to be cautious.

[Razick]

Bear market was over ages ago. But yes I'm cautiously optimistic too. Lets do this.

True, by saying the bear market is over, I mean that it's been relatively proven at this point. In other words, it's not a "dead cat bounce" as people are fond of saying.

[Ya-ing]

Hope it goes up more. Meanwhile, perhaps it is time to buy more altcoins.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Hope it goes up more. Meanwhile, perhaps it is time to buy more altcoins.

Gee, where to begin with the shitcoins.  And really, there are hundreds of them and I don't think most offer any sort of advantage over bitcoin. 

I'm cautiously optimistic as well, but I'm very skeptical as well about bitcoin's future.  The community seems to be a pretty toxic one, judging by this forum.  I think the founder of dogecoin got out of crypto for that reason.

[gentlemand]

Well, we'll know Bitcoin's really going places if or when 'the community' slides into backroom obscurity. I'm willing to bet only a small fraction of mobile phone owners have ever frequented an Android or Ios forum or have the slightest clue who's steering the ship.

[Razick]

Hope it goes up more. Meanwhile, perhaps it is time to buy more altcoins.

I just don't see that as a good option unless an alt coin emerges as a serious, *significantly superior* alternative to Bitcoin. I realize some of them have some good ideas, but let's be honest: it's gambling. It's like buying penny stocks. UNLESS, you can find something that is fundamentally better in such a way that it could eventually replace Bitcoin.

All these clone-coins will remain in the shadows unless they can render Bitcoin obsolete. It's like Beta-max vs VHS.

Hope it goes up more. Meanwhile, perhaps it is time to buy more altcoins.

Gee, where to begin with the shitcoins.  And really, there are hundreds of them and I don't think most offer any sort of advantage over bitcoin. 

I'm cautiously optimistic as well, but I'm very skeptical as well about bitcoin's future.  The community seems to be a pretty toxic one, judging by this forum.  I think the founder of dogecoin got out of crypto for that reason.

Well, we'll know Bitcoin's really going places if or when 'the community' slides into backroom obscurity. I'm willing to bet only a small fraction of mobile phone owners have ever frequented an Android or Ios forum or have the slightest clue who's steering the ship.

Just remember very few people today have any idea what the early adopters may have said on chat-rooms and forums (did they have those?) when the internet was still in it's infancy. We don't matter to Bitcoin's long-term success one way or the other. It doesn't belong to us.

I will agree, however, that some of what goes on in this forum contributes to the stereotypes that are holding us back. But those roadblocks are tiny compared to the real obstacles: Government tax policy makes Bitcoin completely impracticable to use, and regulation is holding back innovation. I used to trade Bitcoin constantly and spend it often, but I won't even touch any Bitcoin other than what I already own now because of the nightmare of tax compliance I went through to report about $10 of taxable short term gains. IRS red tape is the enemy here. They are the ones holding us back. Hopefully as Bitcoin grows we can influence legislative reform.

[zimmah]

let's all be cautiously optimistic together.

we can have a cautiously optimistic party.

just make sure to not drink too much.

[r0ach]

I can't wait till everyone sells at like $600 or $800 and it keeps on rising as they watch in horror.

[Razick]

I can't wait till everyone sells at like $600 or $800 and it keeps on rising as they watch in horror.

Yeah. I was originally planning on doing so because for a long time Bitcoin was over-represented in my portfolio, but realistically, I could invest more at this point. I think I'll just hold on for a few years regardless of what happens.

[1Referee]

I can't wait till everyone sells at like $600 or $800 and it keeps on rising as they watch in horror.

That's why one should never sell all his coins at once. If you just sell a small percentage of your coins at a time, then you can benefit from the price that goes up and up. If you sell all your coins, then yes, you'll hate yourself when the price goes up much higher.

[Razick]

^Same goes for buying.

[hayabusa911]

Down $20 since the last time I looked last night. Make up your mind bitcoins!!!

[talks_cheep]

When everyone expected the rally would continue, it dropped from 475 to 455, a mere $20 drop but a drop nonetheless. Bitcoin has a habbit of doing the complete opposite of what you expect it to do. Prolly because the market is rigged by the whales and manipulators.

[Razick]

When everyone expected the rally would continue, it dropped from 475 to 455, a mere $20 drop but a drop nonetheless. Bitcoin has a habbit of doing the complete opposite of what you expect it to do. Prolly because the market is rigged by the whales and manipulators.

Speculators are a scapegoat. They get a bad rap but they actually help to stabilize the market. The reason the market is unpredictable is actually because markets have a long history of being notoriously unpredictable.

The market pricing mechanism depends on human psychology and trial and error. It rarely reflects the true value of something in the short run but tends to do a good job over the long run.

Down $20 since the last time I looked last night. Make up your mind bitcoins!!!

Corrections can be a good thing. They help test the waters and provide a stable foundation for future gains.

[spazzdla]

Down $20 since the last time I looked last night. Make up your mind bitcoins!!!

Corrections can be a good thing. They help test the waters and provide a stable foundation for future gains.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[newcoins1978]

Down $20 since the last time I looked last night. Make up your mind bitcoins!!!

Corrections can be a good thing. They help test the waters and provide a stable foundation for future gains.

Yeah, paying taking profit makes room for people embracing the rise that is happening. Which is good since they are determined to hold longer.
I guess I share this outlook.

[afbitcoins]

I can't wait till everyone sells at like $600 or $800 and it keeps on rising as they watch in horror.

I know what you mean Roach but to be fair it goes both ways too. I hodl'd far too much in the last bear market and watched in horror as further price falls developed. However in this situation I am very bullish and ready to hodl. Cautiously