Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon?

[Bit_Happy]

Edit:
Have you 'thanked' a skeptic today?
A market with some signs of balance is much healthier than a situation with clearly excessive exuberance (i.e. Early June 2011)
</Edit >


The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

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[Gatekeeper]

if your entire analysis is based on "look what happened last time" then i think it's you that has no common sense.

[Bit_Happy]

if your entire analysis is based on "look what happened last time"...

I did say ".. or very soon."

• "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana
• Plus other factors, like Irrational Exuberance in the community*

*Some of which is very fun and I have participated in.

[bitcon]

my chart analysis spreadsheet tells me that at current hashrate, and news that TV star Bob Saget is soon investing in a large amount of coins; BTC is undervalued by at least $15.

[Luno]

Don't base you trading strategy on what you think will happen. You will be wrong more often than not.

[Gatekeeper]

if your entire analysis is based on "look what happened last time"...

I did say ".. or very soon."

• "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" ~George Santayana
• Plus other factors, like Irrational Exuberance in the community*

*Some of which is very fun and I have participated in.

It doesn't matter, your entire argument is "look what happened last time" which is totally ridiculous.

[goxed]

Sold my BTC Thanks for the heads-up. 

[Bit_Happy]

• Please post any chart from ANY financial market in modern or ancient history that shows a massive, dramatic upward spike without a sharp correction.

Good luck finding one.

[Stephen Gornick]

Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.

That was then.  This is now.

• Plus other factors, like Irrational Exuberance in the community*

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent [betting against it].

Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.

One thing is certain -- without there being plenty of convenient and secure methods to "go short" bitcoin, the longer the exchange rate goes up at this pace the sharper the selloff when one comes.   The total valuation (which some refer to using the misnomer "market cap") of $300+ million exceeds by a wide margin the amount actually needed to support the level of BTC transactions that are seen on the blockchain today.  

And looking at the exchange trading volume, the current levels are triple what they were in 4Q 2012.  If that isn't sustained, there could easily be a sharp pullback.

 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Or this is the new normal and there's more upside to come.  Who knows?

[Melbustus]

I'm a long-term bull. I started buying in 2011 and have continued to buy throughout, including this month.

I acknowledge the possibility of a crash/correction of up to 50% when this rally stops. But I'm still buying.

What bears must acknowledge is that Bitcoin 2013 is not Bitcoin 2011. Implying that the current spike is going to lead to a similar 90%+ lasting crash simply due to chart patterns represents some pretty surface level thinking.

Bitcoin has made great strides in the last year and a half, including:

1) More security (hashrate), and about to get 10x+ more secure due to ASIC deployment.
2) Far more professionalism in the ecosystem in general, and in 3rd party services in particular.
3) Development and understanding of best-practices with respect to how to handle bitcoin, in terms of online wallets, offline wallets, cold storage, etc.
4) Far more merchant adoption (just ask BitPay).
5) Traditional venture capital is now dipping their feet in the water.
6) More professionals and technologists from other industries are now focusing on bitcoin. Observe the bitcoin2013 speaker/panalist list.
7) Services such as SatoshiDice show a use-case that isn't possible without bitcoin, and gambling looks set to become bitcoin's first high-volume general use-case.
8.) Bitcoin acceptance announcements from top sites including Wordpress.com, Reddit.com, and Mega
9) More startups and serious entrepreneurs investing their time, energy, and creativity into bitcoin.
10) Huge improvement in the quality of the mainstream media attention given to bitcoin.
11) Another 18 months of successfully processing transactions without any fundamental protocol failure.


Don't forget that the fall from $32 in 2011 was triggered by a hack at Gox, which was followed by a nasty series of hacks and scams that was able to happen due to widespread ignorance and naivety in the bitcoin ecosystem in general. Bitcoin has grown up to a large degree since then, and I posit that we're over the era of easy hacks and scams that killed confidence for a year. During that time, the core ecosystem was quietly gaining the strength and professionalism that's finally being acknowledged today.

[Nesetalis]

"up to 50%" I think you are being irrational here. I can expect a crash of up to 95%.
We went from $31 to $2 before, another crash like that could happen again, it could be even more drastic.. Will it? I don't know, but pretending that 50% is the floor is foolish.

[Melbustus]

"up to 50%" I think you are being irrational here. I can expect a crash of up to 95%.
We went from $31 to $2 before, another crash like that could happen again, it could be even more drastic.. Will it? I don't know, but pretending that 50% is the floor is foolish.

I think I was fairly explicit about the differences between 2011 and 2013 which lead me to the conclusion that a crash wouldn't be nearly as bad.

[Nesetalis]

You made your case, and I think its foolish. Simple as that.
It took us 2 months to climb from ~10 to ~30 it could easily drop back to ~10 in a moment.. or it might continue upward.

Any currency can crash drastically and the trading pool isn't so deep as to protect bitcoin from this fact.

[Melbustus]

You made your case, and I think its foolish. Simple as that.

Fair enough.

[zby]

The chart below shows the current total value of all BTC that have been produced (sometimes called "market capitalization")
Please look closely at what happened last time the value shot up so fast.
Common sense tells us the current rally is over, sorry.



Please sell your BTC at the nearest exchange and wait for a much lower price.  

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. 

[Technomage]

Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times.

Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical.

[phatsphere]

The last time "this happened" was the ramp up before the $15 spike in Sept/Oct (?) 2012 ... starting at Jul'12. Hence, what you tell us is that it will top out, retrace roughly 25%, and build an upper triangle and breakout again. From that, I can't follow your "sell now" logic.

[KTE]

"up to 50%" I think you are being irrational here. I can expect a crash of up to 95%.

You're being just as irrational. Why not 99%? 100%? 97%? You guys are just throwing in numbers out of your head with relation to any data. If you're saying that the last crash was the absolute maximum, you should have a reason why.

You guys should just stick to saying that a crash is possible and not try to be any more exact since you can't, credibly.

[piramida]

You're being just as irrational. Why not 99%? 100%? 97%? You guys are just throwing in numbers out of your head with relation to any data. If you're saying that the last crash was the absolute maximum, you should have a reason why.

You guys should just stick to saying that a crash is possible and not try to be any more exact since you can't, credibly.

KTE but he has a solid understanding of fundamentals don't you know   Quoting from another thread:

c'mon price.. drop back down to maybe 10 or 20$... I wanna buy some more cheaply!

[Rothgar]