Warning to bears: Big players in China

[jl2012]

As some of you may not know, btcchina.com is now trading at 193.85CNY, or 31.1USD, while MtGox is trading at 29.7USD. It is 4.7% higher, and this phenomenon has lasted for at least 2 weeks. In December and January, it was always trading lower than MtGox.

Please also look at the weekly volume chart of btcchina:



Five weeks ago, weekly trading volume in CNY suddenly doubled from 0.63M to 1.32M, making an all-time-high. More importantly, it stays at this level since then. Last week it doubled again, from 1.59M to 3.14M.

Bitcoin has big potential in China:

• 1. Hedging for serious inflation. The official figure is about 5%pa, and no one would believe that;
• 2. Money laundering for corrupt officials: China is one of the most corrupt country in the world;
• 3. Circumventing taxation: China ranks the second on Forbes Tax Misery Index
• 4. Circumventing foreign exchange control: It's difficult to move money in/out the country and obtain foreign currency. That may also explain why people pay more CNY to buy bitcoin because it's difficult to send money to Gox;
• 5. Gambling: Chinese are very obsessive in gambling. In 2011, Macau collected US$33.5 billion from gamblers, comparing with only US$4.5 billion in Vegas;
• 6. Big internet population, still with huge room of growth: There are 538M internet users in China, accounting for only 40% of the total population. In US, there are only 245M, and that's 79% of the total population (i.e. nearly saturated)
• 7. Bitcoin has very low popularity in China: The volume in btcchina is only 4% of Gox. It sounds bad, but that also means the growth could be more dramatic.

If Chinese big players try to get on the train, the momentum could be really tremendous. Don't bet on the wrong size.

[ElectricMucus]

Newsflash! New exchanges increase in volume.

cool story bro tell it again.

[jl2012]

Newsflash! New exchanges increase in volume.

cool story bro tell it again.

It's not new. It has been running since July 2011

[adamstgBit]

lol

bulls grasping at straws,  cool

[arepo]

the present rally is reflecting an increasing demand all over, not just china. the chinese market is but a part and could just as easily drive a sell-off if the 'big player' starts to see prices drop on other exchanges.

in other words, increasing demand is obvious. why else should the price increase 600% in 12 months? this says nothing about whether or not we're at the market equilibrium or are overbought or oversold. this may even be a bubble symptom -- is this 'smart money' or panic buying? how does the saying go? when your mom starts trading with leverage, it's time to get out.

sorry for the bearish sentiment, just trying to provide another perspective.

[oakpacific]

Newsflash! New exchanges increase in volume.

cool story bro tell it again.

It's not new. It has been running since July 2011

You can't wake up someone who pretends to be asleep, even when it's an earthquake.

[notig]

From what I've read... I think macao is a huge potential for bitcoin. Why? Because they have issues with getting money back and forth across the chinese border. I read that they basically have to get paid once they are back in china since they can't bring money across the border or something.

[oakpacific]

Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":

[niko]

Add to the list that the so far only two groups to successfully deploy mining ASICs are both based in China.

[Cluster2k]

For Chinese citizens going to Macau to gamble, bringing enough money with them presents a problem.

http://emergingmoney.com/china/macau-casino-pawn-shop-lvs-mpel/

"Because of capital controls imposed by the Chinese government, Mainland citizens coming to the Macao Special Administrative Region are only allowed to bring in 20,000 RMB, or a little over $3,000. "

"Pawn shops in Macau allow Chinese residents to use debit cards to purchase high-end merchandise such as rolexes, then immediately re-sell the good back to the pawn shop for cash. The pawn shop takes a nominal fee and the gambler has managed to acquire the cash necessary for gambling."

[ElectricMucus]

Add to the list that the so far only two groups to successfully deploy mining ASICs are both based in China.

They are probably responsible for the exchange volume during the current bubble.

[jl2012]

Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":

You need to look at Baidu trend since google is blocked by the Chinese government.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

The Baidu trend is still at about 60% of the 2011 bubble. However, it has increased by 4-time since 2013, with the peak during Avalon shipping.

[jl2012]

Add to the list that the so far only two groups to successfully deploy mining ASICs are both based in China.

They are probably responsible for the exchange volume during the current bubble.

If the selling pressure in China is high, the rate at btcchina should be lower than gox. However, it's 4% over gox, which means buying pressure is even higher.

[ElectricMucus]

Add to the list that the so far only two groups to successfully deploy mining ASICs are both based in China.

They are probably responsible for the exchange volume during the current bubble.

If the selling pressure in China is high, the rate at btcchina should be lower than gox. However, it's 4% over gox, which means buying pressure is even higher.

They received USD which probably got converted in yuan when pitpay issued them a IBAN transfer so yeah..
If they want to get BTC they'd have to buy in yuan.

[dree12]

Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":

You need to look at Baidu trend since google is blocked by the Chinese government.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

The Baidu trend is still at about 60% of the 2011 bubble. However, it has increased by 4-time since 2013, with the peak during Avalon shipping.

While looking at this I learned that red means "up" in China. Interesting.

[oakpacific]

Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":

You need to look at Baidu trend since google is blocked by the Chinese government.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

The Baidu trend is still at about 60% of the 2011 bubble. However, it has increased by 4-time since 2013, with the peak during Avalon shipping.

While looking at this I learned that red means "up" in China. Interesting.

That's true.

[Nemesis]

From what I've read... I think macao is a huge potential for bitcoin. Why? Because they have issues with getting money back and forth across the chinese border. I read that they basically have to get paid once they are back in china since they can't bring money across the border or something.

If anything Hongkong should be the next largest exchange.

Bringing money from and to mainland is never a problem in HK. And HK has the best banking network with the Western. If BTC needs to grow in China, HK is the hub for it.

[SomeWhere]

On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

[molecular]

lol

bulls grasping at straws,  cool

I bet you're having a good time with all that renewed hope and your bet looking good. Enjoy!

[molecular]

On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

Yep. Do you recall when it changed? It was trading only marginally higher last year.

Is the rally driven by non-US people mainly?