BitBet "BFL Will Deliver" bet resolving soon, how did you bet?

[Logik]

BFL will deliver ASIC devices before March 1st

How much did you bet, and what will you do with your winnings? 

[DiCE1904]

bet 10BTC....and will not use my winnings to buy BFL uhhhh anything   ?

[ElectricMucus]

When looking at this bet you have to keep in mind that anybody who thought BFL would deliver more likely gave their money to them rather than to take part in this bet.
So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...

[crazyates]

When looking at this bet you have to keep in mind that anybody who thought BFL would deliver more likely gave their money to them rather than to take part in this bet.
So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...

This.

[Logik]

more easy money, http://bitbet.us/bet/265/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-april-1st/

Tempting... so tempting.

[hotdealdave]

This is me:

03-02-13 04:15    No    39`341    2.02100000    1EiN3    /    1KZvH

And I'm a BFL customer. I was just sure by then that their timeline was too optimistic. Now by the end of March? That's a more interesting bet. Right now I would say yes, around mid-March. If there are issues with the chips then it's anyone's guess though.

[turboNOMAD]

I bet 10 BTC.
Regrets to Josh or whoever that was to bet 500 BTC for "Yes" side.

[dust]

more easy money, http://bitbet.us/bet/265/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-april-1st/

Devices must be in scope of +-10% of advertised performance in order to be accepted as valid.

What is "performance", Gh/J?  Or the devices have to be within +-10% for both Gh/s and power requirements?

Either way, 10% isn't a huge margin and people betting in favor of BFL can lose even if the devices exceed specifications.

[Frizz23]

Thank you BFL for some month with easy money  
I used betsofbitco.in and bitbet.us so far to bet against BFL.

As for April: Not so sure. I think BFL will ship their products in late April (well, if their design is not completely borked).

But this bet is so ambiguous ("Devices must be in scope of +-10% of advertised performance in order to be accepted as valid.") that it's suicide to place money on "yes".

[bonker]

more easy money, http://bitbet.us/bet/265/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-april-1st/

Tempting... so tempting.

I think that bet was my suggestion... I'm sure others did too though.

[creativex]

Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.

[mrb]

Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.

May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)

[Bogart]

Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.

May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)

That bet runs until June 30.  This one will pay sooner:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701

Betting closes in 4 days.

[Atruk]

Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.

May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)

That bet runs until June 30.  This one will pay sooner:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701

Betting closes in 4 days.

How long does it take those assholes to pay out though?

[CrazyGuy]

Wow, a few people are about to make some serious coin! Mr 350, may I suggest you spend a fraction of your winnings on a nice Harley sportster 48?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142257

Or maybe step it up to the next level and get yourself in a Porsche?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143722.0

[Frizz23]

I just noticed that people lost money - even when betting on the right side!
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/

Have a look:




E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):

21-02-13 15:50    No    710    50.00000000    146mo    49.93600046    1FRBb

But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!

Is bitbet.us buggy?

[greyhawk]

Bets placed to late and paid back minus a handling fee?

[Frizz23]

Bets placed to late and paid back minus a handling fee?

No. Bet closed 22-02-2013. Those bets were in time.

[hotdealdave]

I just noticed that people lost money - even when betting on the right side!
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/

Have a look:




E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):

21-02-13 15:50    No    710    50.00000000    146mo    49.93600046    1FRBb

But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!

Is bitbet.us buggy?

It looks like the bets are really heavily weighted. In other words, the first people to enter their winning bets get a lot more than the last, for the same bet. It does seem rather unfair that the last few winning bets actually lost money. Maybe Milk could tweak the weighting formula in the future to prevent that from happening with relatively even bets like this.

[Dalkore]

Absolutely.  People who bet way back when should be rewarded because of the extra risk they took.  Look at the dates of the ones that lost a little,  they are quite close to the resolve date so they had more information to go on.   Some people made out like a bandit,  BTC510 = yummy