It's over for the shills and bears - BTC market cap about to explode

[jaredboice]

It's amazing how people are still trying to convince everyone that just because something is known to happen that it's already priced in. We have also known since 2010 that there were only going to be 21 million bitcoins. So why did it take several years to surpass a meager five billion dollar market cap? Why didn't everyone pile in way back then? Why isn't the halving 4 years from now priced in? We already know it's going to happen lol

You know that's why I'm starting to think that guy is a troll cuz it's too easy to dismantle the dookie he is spewing

In 2010 and 2011, there was much more uncertainty and far less awareness. That is the reason why every coin wasn't bought up and hoarded like my precious. There was also only a few 10 thousands of us here and not everyone was so sure Bitcoin would even survive the 2011 bear market, let alone put every Dollar they owned into some ultra high risk investment. I mined back then on a handful of pc's and was bringing in ~10BTC/day. Difficulty was 100k. There was little confidence of the longevity compared to today. Hell, there was only 6 million coins in existence. You think they should have been worth $1000 back then? Add the 2013 rally's and would you pay ~$45k today? Bitcoin is not worth that yet. In fact, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay, and by the looks of it, no one seems to want to pay anywhere near $500 without some confirmation.

It was also known that it takes 130 years to mine every bit of the 21M Bitcoins.

The speculative aspect of halving may not be priced in, but the true current utility value likely is (Otherwise, price would be rising consistently if demand was high enough to outpace supply). Depending on how long the speculative hype of halving lasts determines where the resulting pull back lands. That number is an unknown until it happens. The longer it takes, the potentially higher it could be since more users may come aboard and that raises demand.
The next halving is too far away to be of any significance on price right now. I'm no proponent to efficient market hypothesis, but it isn't exactly lagging either. Front runners (especially those who were around for the first halving) cause the rally to happen earlier and unless new money comes in to support, there will be nothing to propel the price higher once they all buy. So you end up with a pre halving rally, and post halving dumps. Speculation is then over and the equilibrium will take time to achieve.

So many fallacies. Where to start. How about your claim that since there were only 6 million coins in existence, the future peak of $1100+ couldn't have been priced in. But we have known since the beginning of Bitcoin that there would be a hard limit of 21 million. Yet when it comes to the supply halving you speak about that as already being priced in. Can't have it both ways whether you call it speculatively driven or something else. Preexisting knowledge does not mean the market has already priced something in, and most certainly not in totality

[r0ach]

what exactly is your problem with ETH? I get that you say its manipulated but that shouldn't be a problem as all crypto's are manipulated. I don't know a lot about ETH but my favourite guy to listen to about crypto is Andreas Antonopoulos, who likes and owns ETH, and that guy is very smart and very honest.

I'm not thinking about buying ETH but I'm interested in your reasoning (in laymans turms please)

ta

Besides Eth's other issues, just wrote a post on that subject that's relevant to all proof of stake systems:

Why proof of stake has no value:

Since Satoshi did not solve the Byzantine generals problem, this means confirmations are completely arbitrary.  So why are two confirmations more useful in Bitcoin (PoW) than one?  Because it's an open entropy system where over a period of time, it's either unlikely or statistically impossible for someone to maintain a monopoly on block validation when there is no upper limit to confirmations.

Recursive systems like proof of stake tend to permanently monopolize block validation by design, with no real fault or state recovery to fix it once it goes off the rails.  This makes a proof of stake confirmation essentially worthless due to being a bounded entropy system.

On top of being worthless, proof of stake is also a permissioned ledger.  The purpose of mining in Bitcoin is to create a permanent decentralized exchange peg, which thus results in a permissionless system.

[freshman777]

r0ach, you take on the habit of Anonymint to repost your "wisdoms" all over the forum

[SomaliRebel]

r0ach, you take on the habit of Anonymint to repost your "wisdoms" all over the forum

You're looking at this all wrong. R0ach posting on the internet is like a bear riding a bicycle: it ain't how well he does it, it's that he manages to do it at all.

[r0ach]

Which then leads into vomit inducing pump

May you all go broke, and burn in hell...

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, you can use data that is 3 years old to justify your opinion, but when Matt or I do it, "Bitcoin is not the same as it was back then"? Double standard much?

[r0ach]

So, you can use data that is 3 years old to justify your opinion, but when Matt or I do it, "Bitcoin is not the same as it was back then"? Double standard much?

Mat doesn't even do TA.  He draws completely arbitrary lines at random while ignoring things like the marginal costs of all mining participants averaged together having a relation to price floors.  There is a supply and demand dynamic on the other side of that equation, but 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, the rest takes a long time to mine, and post halving inflation is 4%.  The market has already absorbed most of the supply.  

Everybody knows what happens after a market has a long bear period (the decline from $1200 and then the $200-420 level of long protracted sideways movement).  People always attempt to corner the market then explode the price upwards after.  Going from $230 to $420 is not what I consider a big movement for such a long, drawn out accumulation period.  We all know the big, post-bear market move is yet to come.  You can easily have a +10x shooting star coming out of those bear market lows.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, you can use data that is 3 years old to justify your opinion, but when Matt or I do it, "Bitcoin is not the same as it was back then"? Double standard much?

Mat doesn't even do TA.  He draws completely arbitrary lines at random while ignoring things like the marginal costs of all mining participants averaged together having a relation to price floors.  There is a supply and demand dynamic on the other side of that equation, but 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, the rest takes a long time to mine, and post halving inflation is 4%.  The market has already absorbed most of the supply.  

Everybody knows what happens after a market has a long bear period (the decline from $1200 and then the $200-420 level of long protracted sideways movement).  People always attempt to corner the market then explode the price upwards after.  Going from $230 to $420 is not what I consider a big movement for such a long, drawn out accumulation period.  We all know the big, post-bear market move is yet to come.  You can easily have a +10x shooting star coming out of those bear market lows.

+10x like $4k?
If that is what you meant, I seriously doubt someone is going to just buy like that. That would be a worse move than a 5% dump at market. For the dumping side, it is arguable that if you have a shitton of coins, that 3-5k dump is just a small portion of their coins and the slippage is not much in relation. But to buy out the order book in one go? I just don't see that kind of thing happening, ever.

[r0ach]

So, you can use data that is 3 years old to justify your opinion, but when Matt or I do it, "Bitcoin is not the same as it was back then"? Double standard much?

Mat doesn't even do TA.  He draws completely arbitrary lines at random while ignoring things like the marginal costs of all mining participants averaged together having a relation to price floors.  There is a supply and demand dynamic on the other side of that equation, but 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, the rest takes a long time to mine, and post halving inflation is 4%.  The market has already absorbed most of the supply.  

Everybody knows what happens after a market has a long bear period (the decline from $1200 and then the $200-420 level of long protracted sideways movement).  People always attempt to corner the market then explode the price upwards after.  Going from $230 to $420 is not what I consider a big movement for such a long, drawn out accumulation period.  We all know the big, post-bear market move is yet to come. You can easily have a +10x shooting star coming out of those bear market lows.

+10x like $4k?
If that is what you meant, I seriously doubt someone is going to just buy like that. That would be a worse move than a 5% dump at market. For the dumping side, it is arguable that if you have a shitton of coins, that 3-5k dump is just a small portion of their coins and the slippage is not much in relation. But to buy out the order book in one go? I just don't see that kind of thing happening, ever.

Man, come on.  Shooting stars have build up periods.  I didn't mean straight from $450 to $4000.  Of course, the max people can take it to might be something like $2000 since that's a 10x off the bear market accumulation period.  So, maybe you dump at $2k and it turns out well and you rebuy at $1600 or something, or maybe it keeps going higher while you watch and smash your keyboard over your head.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So, you can use data that is 3 years old to justify your opinion, but when Matt or I do it, "Bitcoin is not the same as it was back then"? Double standard much?

Mat doesn't even do TA.  He draws completely arbitrary lines at random while ignoring things like the marginal costs of all mining participants averaged together having a relation to price floors.  There is a supply and demand dynamic on the other side of that equation, but 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, the rest takes a long time to mine, and post halving inflation is 4%.  The market has already absorbed most of the supply.  

Everybody knows what happens after a market has a long bear period (the decline from $1200 and then the $200-420 level of long protracted sideways movement).  People always attempt to corner the market then explode the price upwards after.  Going from $230 to $420 is not what I consider a big movement for such a long, drawn out accumulation period.  We all know the big, post-bear market move is yet to come. You can easily have a +10x shooting star coming out of those bear market lows.

+10x like $4k?
If that is what you meant, I seriously doubt someone is going to just buy like that. That would be a worse move than a 5% dump at market. For the dumping side, it is arguable that if you have a shitton of coins, that 3-5k dump is just a small portion of their coins and the slippage is not much in relation. But to buy out the order book in one go? I just don't see that kind of thing happening, ever.

Man, come on.  Shooting stars have build up periods.  I didn't mean straight from $450 to $4000.  Of course, the max people can take it to might be something like $2000 since that's a 10x off the bear market accumulation period.  So, maybe you dump at $2k and it turns out well and you rebuy at $1600 or something, or maybe it keeps going higher while you watch and smash your keyboard over your head.

Ok, that's all I wanted clarified. Thank you

[zimmah]

It's amazing how people are still trying to convince everyone that just because something is known to happen that it's already priced in. We have also known since 2010 that there were only going to be 21 million bitcoins. So why did it take several years to surpass a meager five billion dollar market cap? Why didn't everyone pile in way back then? Why isn't the halving 4 years from now priced in? We already know it's going to happen lol

You know that's why I'm starting to think that guy is a troll cuz it's too easy to dismantle the dookie he is spewing

In 2010 and 2011, there was much more uncertainty and far less awareness. That is the reason why every coin wasn't bought up and hoarded like my precious. There was also only a few 10 thousands of us here and not everyone was so sure Bitcoin would even survive the 2011 bear market, let alone put every Dollar they owned into some ultra high risk investment. I mined back then on a handful of pc's and was bringing in ~10BTC/day. Difficulty was 100k. There was little confidence of the longevity compared to today. Hell, there was only 6 million coins in existence. You think they should have been worth $1000 back then? Add the 2013 rally's and would you pay ~$45k today? Bitcoin is not worth that yet. In fact, it's only worth what someone is willing to pay, and by the looks of it, no one seems to want to pay anywhere near $500 without some confirmation.

It was also known that it takes 130 years to mine every bit of the 21M Bitcoins.

The speculative aspect of halving may not be priced in, but the true current utility value likely is (Otherwise, price would be rising consistently if demand was high enough to outpace supply). Depending on how long the speculative hype of halving lasts determines where the resulting pull back lands. That number is an unknown until it happens. The longer it takes, the potentially higher it could be since more users may come aboard and that raises demand.
The next halving is too far away to be of any significance on price right now. I'm no proponent to efficient market hypothesis, but it isn't exactly lagging either. Front runners (especially those who were around for the first halving) cause the rally to happen earlier and unless new money comes in to support, there will be nothing to propel the price higher once they all buy. So you end up with a pre halving rally, and post halving dumps. Speculation is then over and the equilibrium will take time to achieve.

yes but the new equilibrium can only truly be found after the halving

and it won't be minutes after the halving either, it's more likely a few weeks or even months after the halving.

[r0ach]

Ok, that's all I wanted clarified. Thank you

There was my original, probabilistic halving forecast:

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ok, that's all I wanted clarified. Thank you

There was my original, probabilistic halving forecast:

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

I can agree with all that. That is how bubbles form. Will it be from halving? I doubt it. Cool if it does because I could use some new toys, but I have my doubts that this will come within the next 9-12 months.

[talks_cheep]

"I can agree with all that. That is how bubbles form. Will it be from halving? I doubt it. Cool if it does because I could use some new toys, but I have my doubts that this will come within the next 9-12 months."

I doubt that this will happen in the next 9-12 YEARS. I don't think it will happen in our life time either. Because of China. China has the most amount of bitcoins, they have most amount of hashrate, they control the production of the means to sustain bitcoins, they control the trades of bitcoins, they practically own it. It's in their interest to milk the whole game, to mitigate the risk and to maximize the profit, they will incrementally increase and decrease the bitcoin price.

[RyNinDaCleM]

"I can agree with all that. That is how bubbles form. Will it be from halving? I doubt it. Cool if it does because I could use some new toys, but I have my doubts that this will come within the next 9-12 months."

I doubt that this will happen in the next 9-12 YEARS. I don't think it will happen in our life time either. Because of China. China has the most amount of bitcoins, they have most amount of hashrate, they control the production of the means to sustain bitcoins, they control the trades of bitcoins, they practically own it. It's in their interest to milk the whole game, to mitigate the risk and to maximize the profit, they will incrementally increase and decrease the bitcoin price.

This isn't the $10k thread. I think a $1600 price tag is realistic eventually, though I don't think it will be soon.

[r0ach]

blah blah blah

You are a paid shill account.  Everyone knows it.  Stop being a moron and pretending like you fool anyone.  All it takes is anyone clicking your post history to instantly discover it.  You were even shilling saying Bitcoin would crash when it was $200 and up to $500 it goes the next day.

This isn't the $10k thread. I think a $1600 price tag is realistic eventually, though I don't think it will be soon.

It's obvious Bitcoin will be used for more high value transactions in the future whether it be for things like houses, yachts, million dollar art auctions, settlement purposes, or just people using it as a counterparty risk free version of a bank.  $10k is hardly a high estimate.  The only option I see is that Bitcoin will hit $600 billion or higher market cap at the very least in the future or it won't exist.

[korila]

blah blah blah

You are a paid shill account.  Everyone knows it.  Stop being a moron and pretending like you fool anyone.  All it takes is anyone clicking your post history to instantly discover it.  You were even shilling saying Bitcoin would crash when it was $200 and up to $500 it goes the next day.

This isn't the $10k thread. I think a $1600 price tag is realistic eventually, though I don't think it will be soon.

It's obvious Bitcoin will be used for more high value transactions in the future whether it be for things like houses, yachts, million dollar art auctions, settlement purposes, or just people using it as a counterparty risk free version of a bank.  $10k is hardly a high estimate.  The only options I see is Bitcoin will hit $600 billion or higher market cap at the very least in the future or it won't exist.

If I have to pick BTC hitting $600 billion or become obsolete.
I would choose the latter lol..

[r0ach]

If I have to pick BTC hitting $600 billion or become obsolete.
I would choose the latter lol..

Looks like you picked wrong.

[korila]

If I have to pick BTC hitting $600 billion or become obsolete.
I would choose the latter lol..

Looks like you picked wrong.

Although my keyboard typing hand was wrong, my brain was right
over 30btc profit...finally...

[Naughtid]

Ok, that's all I wanted clarified. Thank you

There was my original, probabilistic halving forecast:

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

I think the short squeeze will push the price much higher than the last $1200 peak. But the price has to rise to $1200 first.