Does the next halving really matter that much?

[bearex]

Okay, will the next halving really matter? All i see is people talking about it and waiting to happen, "the price will rise", "to the moon". But what will really happen after the halving?

Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.

My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase after halving
2. Price increase doesnt happen
3. PANIC
4. ...




So this is just my opinion. Please post yours in the replys. What do you expect after halving and why?

[pitham1]

Even if points 1 and 2 come true, I don't think there will be panic at point 3.
I expect disappointment and people gradually exiting, rather than a sudden dump.

[longbob72]

Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.

Just because of that? You're not factoring mining costs and the rate of adoption (bitcoin users is not that many at the moment)?

The price might stay as it is even after the halving, yes. But it is likely to increase because less bitcoins is going to be sold in the market and because more people are going to want their share of bitcoins.

[Belligerent Fool]

I think the Bitcoin Markets are riding the hype train especially with the whole Chinese Yuan situation and whatever comes next for some uplifting news.

Anything to do with the Chinese and investments, the sheep will follow...

I personally think that everyone is:

1. Waiting for the Halving and hyping it up.
2. Halving happens and price doesn't explode or the price gets a mediocre high like the whole $1000 mark a few years back then has the gradual decline with people blatantly trying to keep the price up.
3. People realise this and sell their BTC while it is above its usual peak & wait for a steady floor in the months to come.

This will be what ? The 2nd time the Bitcoin Reward will be halving, the first time nothing spectacular happened except for the above 3 points... Will history repeat itself again ?

Also note Bitcoin didn't really pick up with a captivating price & global headlines until late 2012 and it was released at the start of 2009.

There was a lot more trading of Bitcoin for things instead of money when nobody knew about it & not many exchanges existed, now its all about cashing out and getting rich so the whole Bicoin Industry trying to get Bitcoin out there for the everyday joe & use is it for everyday life is a bit outrageous when the price always affects its value.

Volatility in the price is the maker and breaker of Bitcoin.

[wuvdoll]

Well I'm pretty much sure that it's going to matter THAT much.
As you can see, the value has quite increased by $50 in over two days and it was quite a fuzz already. What more on the halving? This is going to be a fun ride.

[Maslate]

Well I'm pretty much sure that it's going to matter THAT much.
As you can see, the value has quite increased by $50 in over two days and it was quite a fuzz already. What more on the halving? This is going to be a fun ride.

I agree, its going to be fun in riding the success of bitcoins for this month, and hopefully it will continue to rise to maximize our profit in our earnings and of course for our valuable investment.

[yayayo]

I agree with the skeptics of a halving-mania. The event is widely known, so it's very likely priced in already. People predicting a buying spree at the halving have exactly one data point that could be interpreted in their favor: The price movement after the previous halving. However that data is purely correlational. It could as well be pure coincidence, caused by totally unrelated factors.

Maybe the halving will trigger some additional media reporting that might increase Bitcoin awareness. Apart from that I do not really believe in the various theories regarding the hedging behavior of miners and the like.

For me the halving is primarily a great day to celebrate the birth of Bitcoin. It shows that the algorithm behind this huge network is being executed according to plan...

ya.ya.yo!

[Corenin]

This is my first halving in bitcoin and it really matters to me, as I am expecting to earn some good profits from it and it and make me rich for sure.

[AndySt]

This is my first halving in bitcoin and it really matters to me, as I am expecting to earn some good profits from it and it and make me rich for sure.

Wealth comes to the stubborn and successful people the most important thing is not to miss a good time

[Amph]

yeah because without the miner taking their profit, you have nothing besides an insecure network that can fall apart at any given time

price need to increase no matter what other think, it's how this entire thing was designed, the halving just happear to be the right catalyst for this

[erwin45hacked]

yeah because without the miner taking their profit, you have nothing besides an insecure network that can fall apart at any given time

price need to increase no matter what other think, it's how this entire thing was designed, the halving just happear to be the right catalyst for this

The entire thing was designed to be a currency not something that based itself solely on hype. The reason that the price increase was because there are alot stupid people that believe the price will increase after haling a d the truth was they were the one causing it to increase by buying it

[alyssa85]

It matters from the point of view of those who trade bitcoins. Speculators like to coincide pumps with news, that way noob investors believe that the price move is down to the news, and buy. A pump in the absence of news just looks like a pump.

In the old days there would be a pump on every altcoin when it got listed on Mintpal or Cryptsy - that event was the "news" and the gullible usually bought as a result.

During the lead-up to the Litecoin halvening, there was also a pump, though the pump fizzled out a few weeks before the halvening (the price had risen so rapidly that many long-term holders couldn't resist selling).

[aranachristianjay]

yeah because without the miner taking their profit, you have nothing besides an insecure network that can fall apart at any given time

price need to increase no matter what other think, it's how this entire thing was designed, the halving just happear to be the right catalyst for this

The entire thing was designed to be a currency not something that based itself solely on hype. The reason that the price increase was because there are alot stupid people that believe the price will increase after haling a d the truth was they were the one causing it to increase by buying it

yeah but this sudden increase will fall down again after the those people realized after halving that the price didn't actually affected by the said halving ,as there are still a lot to mined and another reason is that demands for this BTC can always be matched by the sales, because this is a currency and it is not consumed so price of this coin are actually not affected even though the supply from miners gone low as those 25 million will always be on the network. and will not fade. as there are Buyers; there are sellers and vice versa.

[Chrismeister]

Well I'm pretty much sure that it's going to matter THAT much.
As you can see, the value has quite increased by $50 in over two days and it was quite a fuzz already. What more on the halving? This is going to be a fun ride.

I matters to some people and some people do not even care that much. People that want to buy coins again this is really important because they then can buy more coins for a cheaper price.

[AlgoSwan]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

[aranachristianjay]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

So what you are trying to say is that BTC price will increase due to scarcity because of the upcoming halving?,

Well for me I can only say that the price for now will rise because of the people speculations that the halving might have an effect to BTC price due to scarcity of the said coin.

But it is just the speculations that makes people buy and buy more BTC thus making it's price higher and it is not the effect of the halving in the end, because even though 25 million of BTC had been in circulation in future there are no BTC that will loss from that circulation and it will continue to be trade even there is no mining anymore, let's keep in mind that even BTC are not consume or loss when use in market but it is only traded.

[AlgoSwan]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

So what you are trying to say is that BTC price will increase due to scarcity because of the upcoming halving?,

Well for me I can only say that the price for now will rise because of the people speculations that the halving might have an effect to BTC price due to scarcity of the said coin.

But it is just the speculations that makes people buy and buy more BTC thus making it's price higher and it is not the effect of the halving in the end, because even though 25 million of BTC had been in circulation in future there are no BTC that will loss from that circulation and it will continue to be trade even there is no mining anymore, let's keep in mind that even BTC are not consume or loss when use in market but it is only traded.

Good point about speculation. But still supply and demand is the king. And we all know supply is very limited to BTC. And when the scarcity phase enters (I think it will happen in next few years), prices on any currency, commodity starts to behave parabolic rise. But still I think military backed paper currency issuers won't allow this to happen. But I don't really know how will they do this? Any idea?

[aranachristianjay]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

So what you are trying to say is that BTC price will increase due to scarcity because of the upcoming halving?,

Well for me I can only say that the price for now will rise because of the people speculations that the halving might have an effect to BTC price due to scarcity of the said coin.

But it is just the speculations that makes people buy and buy more BTC thus making it's price higher and it is not the effect of the halving in the end, because even though 25 million of BTC had been in circulation in future there are no BTC that will loss from that circulation and it will continue to be trade even there is no mining anymore, let's keep in mind that even BTC are not consume or loss when use in market but it is only traded.

Good point about speculation. But still supply and demand is the king. And we all know supply is very limited to BTC. And when the scarcity phase enters (I think it will happen in next few years), prices on any currency, commodity starts to behave parabolic rise. But still I think military backed paper currency issuers won't allow this to happen. But I don't really know how will they do this? Any idea?

Actually I don't have the idea at the time regarding on their plan, but as what I observed if the 25 million had been in circulation the price will still be stable as long as the large bag holders out there didn't sell that much at lower price or higher price, when that time comes they have the control over the BTC prices.

And actually we can't compare BTC to commodities since commodities are used and loss thus making it's price higher when there is less to produced that can't match the supplies needed for the demands that we can say that it is the scarcity phase of the said commodities happened.

[23dzmaz]

I think the price of bitcoin will increase when the halving is come and it will go down when the halving is done and all people selling their bitcoin together.

[senyorito123]

Last halving time: November 28, 2012 (Price: $12.1) Total 10M coins in circulation
After the halving, prices exploded more than 15 times in just 4 months.

Now: 15M coins in circulation

50 to 25 still seems ample, whereas 12.5 begins to feel like a small number suggesting scarcity.

So what you are trying to say is that BTC price will increase due to scarcity because of the upcoming halving?,

Well for me I can only say that the price for now will rise because of the people speculations that the halving might have an effect to BTC price due to scarcity of the said coin.

But it is just the speculations that makes people buy and buy more BTC thus making it's price higher and it is not the effect of the halving in the end, because even though 25 million of BTC had been in circulation in future there are no BTC that will loss from that circulation and it will continue to be trade even there is no mining anymore, let's keep in mind that even BTC are not consume or loss when use in market but it is only traded.

Good point about speculation. But still supply and demand is the king. And we all know supply is very limited to BTC. And when the scarcity phase enters (I think it will happen in next few years), prices on any currency, commodity starts to behave parabolic rise. But still I think military backed paper currency issuers won't allow this to happen. But I don't really know how will they do this? Any idea?

Actually I don't have the idea at the time regarding on their plan, but as what I observed if the 25 million had been in circulation the price will still be stable as long as the large bag holders out there didn't sell that much at lower price or higher price, when that time comes they have the control over the BTC prices.

And actually we can't compare BTC to commodities since commodities are used and loss thus making it's price higher when there is less to produced that can't match the supplies needed for the demands that we can say that it is the scarcity phase of the said commodities happened.

But i think bitcoin can be could also as comodity as you can see there men bitcoin is base on supply and demands just what like for comodity and the bigger the market with it the more its good and the more people hoard the more price higher just what like happen to products but in the case of bitcoin it is good, because we can earn more if price really high