Fair price of bitcoin after a crash

[Meizirkki]

Permanently frozen bubbles.

[jwzguy]

Fair price, after a crash, is currently ~$47.

[DarkHyudrA]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Bearshit

[Xendrios]

It'll never go that low, why not? I'll be buying way before the price goes that low. I suggest you start living with the fact you missed the train back then and it won't come back. We're not in a bubble atm. Hence why price bounces straight up when it 'crashed' in previous weeks.

[adamstgBit]

We all know what current bitcoin price is artificial. But even a MtGox can't maintain it for a long. Don't know if bitcoin can touch $50 in next several days, but following crash is inevitable.
Because the real value of bitcoin have not changed in the last two years since bubble begun to grow (come on, even a drug-dealers still not use bitcoins), we are going to the same basic level about 0.8$. So, the question is where exactly it will stop to remain still?

Bearshit

after more crashes then i can count, bitcoin is worth 47$, that is the fair value... deal with it.  

[jwzguy]

after more crashes then i can count, bitcoin is worth 47$, that is the fair value... deal with it.  

High five adam. I knew we'd be back on the same page soon!

[BitPirate]

Yes!!!  All these bear threads mystify me.

OH NOES BTC HAS BEEN STABLE AT 47 FOR ALMOST 3 WEEKS

Just buy back in already and remember it as a lesson.

[xavier]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

[solex]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

Like this week? Worst news in 3 years, flaw in protocol (default max db locks was insufficent).

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

= price down $1 after 3 days
Is that interesting enough?

[str4wm4n]

We're talking about Litecoin, right?

[BitPirate]

Just wait for a tiny bit of bad news to come in about bitcoin

- Exchange hack

- Government outlaws bitcoin

- Something related to regulation

- Flaw in the protocol

- Exchange closes down ala bitcoinica

Then we're gonna see something interesting

You're ridiculous. Why all the worry?

When you get this paranoid, it's time to put the bong pipe down and get some fresh air.


In all seriousness, if you have money in the game, then look at the long term and stop stressing out about all the fluctuations.

If you don't have money in the game, then who cares.

[Beauxe]

There is some simple math that drives the whole valuation issue.  I evolves around assumptions of adoption.  Given the current real world obsession with mobile payments, more efficient payment mechanisms, and fiat currency devaluation it is a given that cryptocurrencies are inevitable.  It goes without saying that financial services infrastructure will be built to lever BTC's competitive characteristics with the current payments  system.  Add to that the the 3 major economies of the world are in a runaway financial disaster (USA, EU, and Japan) there is really no other option than devaluation.  Hence, BTC as a usable currency or a valuable investment.

So assuming some type of adoption rate (I believe 10% is a reasonable number) then you can easily factor a valuation of BTC to the USD (assuming world currencies generally remain at their current relative value).  Currently there are approximately $22 Trillion USD in various parts of the money supply.  At a 10% adoption rate of the USD alone (The global fiat currency money supply is north of $100 Trillion), BTC would be worth approximately $100,000.

[DoomDumas]

LOL

We will never ever touch under 20$ !

[adamstgBit]

the crashes are over, BUY BUY BUY 

[odolvlobo]

more people adopts the coin which will drive the value up.

They can't. Nobody can use currency what jump back and forth for 30% in a week for anything useful.

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

Here is a simple scenario. The customer sees the price of an item in BTC and buys that amount of BTC with local currency. Waits 1 hour for confirmations and then buys the item from the merchant with the BTC. Then the merchant waits an hour for confirmations and then sells the BTC for local currency.

The whole transaction takes place over two hours, so it doesn't matter what the price of BTC is or how much it changes in a week in this scenario.

[dmiceman]

By the way, I can predict time of crash with about 60% confidence. It will happen between March 19 and 22. It should not be crash to zero yet, but still a good devastating one.

[Bit_Happy]

Q) Speculation is fun, but what is getting forgotten here?
A) First, spend some time developing the economy, and then speculate on where the price is going.

[dmiceman]

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

And you really want to be one of that merchants or buyers?

By the way, I hear what reddit accept bitcoins. But right now I was unable to see the way to use them. Even if this is (still) possible, that is not easy to do.

[glub0x]

ahah

[BitPirate]

That's not true. In the case where bitcoin is used strictly as a payment system, then volatility has very little effect because the bitcoins at risk for only a very short time.

And you really want to be one of that merchants or buyers?

I do.

When quoting, I suggest Bitcoin as a payment first, PayPal second.

I think the risk of Bitcoin not being a long-term value store is less than the risk of PayPal randomly blocking access to my funds.

Smart CFOs will want it too. It's performed well, and variable costs for accepting payments are less than for credit cards. On average, based on past performance, holding and converting at a later date will be more than enough to completely offset fees. It's a no-brainer.