Mining in 20 years time

[deisik]

no dought mining will be very popular and developed when miners will get the transaction fees but its hard to say that do they will mine the last coins in 20year or not because in middle of it moee inventions can happen too

If mining will be less profitable than it is now (read TX fees don't rise up to a block reward amount as of now), how can it become very popular?

Inventions affect hashrate but not the speed with which coins are mined

I believe the block size should be increased soon as that more transactions can be done in a faster manner.

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

[pedrog]

no dought mining will be very popular and developed when miners will get the transaction fees but its hard to say that do they will mine the last coins in 20year or not because in middle of it moee inventions can happen too

If mining will be less profitable than it is now (read TX fees don't rise up to a block reward amount as of now), how can it become very popular?

Inventions affect hashrate but not the speed with which coins are mined

I believe the block size should be increased soon as that more transactions can be done in a faster manner.

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

[deisik]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

[Umotand]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

If there is no increased capacity, there will be fewer people using the bitcoin. For example, the Ethereum is very fast, so there are more people using it.

[deisik]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

If there is no increased capacity, there will be fewer people using the bitcoin. For example, the Ethereum is very fast, so there are more people using it.

Increased capacity doesn't affect the bitcoin confirmation times, as far as I know (otherwise it would necessarily affect the miners reward). Though I agree that if the times between confirmations decreased, it would be a significant improvement for the whole Bitcoin ecosystem. For example, with Dogecoin you usually get 2-3 confirmations within just a few minutes. But then again this has nothing to do with the block size. And I doubt that more people are using Ether than Bitcoin...

Where did you actually get that?

[lister storm]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

If there is no increased capacity, there will be fewer people using the bitcoin. For example, the Ethereum is very fast, so there are more people using it.

well yeah though ethereum is not that popular any more to be honest, i think bitcoin will always remain the best currency and nothing will change it

[pedrog]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

Well, one thing is sure, if there is no more room for growth usage cannot increase...

[Oralmat]

20 years, it is a long time period, most of the things has been changed, also changes would be happened in bitcoins, May be bitcoin will be top or may be it lost his place or may be a new crypto currency has been introduced and break the bitcoin.  But i am truly user of bitcoin, so i hope bitcoin has a bright future.   

[deisik]

Increasing the block size would evidently decrease fees since there will be less competition between the senders of funds for the inclusion of their transactions in the newly found block, which consists in increasing the fee size (the higher the fee, the faster the TX will be included in one of the new blocks). Miners surely won't like that...

Thereby, the block size is not to be expected to get increased any time soon

You're talking about peanuts.

With increased capacity comes increase in usage and types of usage making the system more valuable.

Do you really believe that increased capacity can somehow lead to an increase in usage? If it were so (simple logic), why had it not been done already (I mean the block size increase) given that miners are interested in "making the system more valuable" as no one else out there? This is not a rocket science or quantum mechanics to get a clue at what's going on...

In short, you are putting the cart before the horse

Well, one thing is sure, if there is no more room for growth usage cannot increase...

Not necessarily. People will just transact less with greater amounts of coins per transaction. Actually, there is a lot of room if we blow off dust from the blocks. In fact, I've seen many charts and graphs in respect to Bitcoin transaction statistics but never met such one. That is, a distribution of transacted amounts per block...

Does anyone know what such a distribution might look like, and how much dust is there?

[Capradina]

20 years, it is a long time period, most of the things has been changed, also changes would be happened in bitcoins, May be bitcoin will be top or may be it lost his place or may be a new crypto currency has been introduced and break the bitcoin.  But i am truly user of bitcoin, so i hope bitcoin has a bright future.   

Yeah, indeed the future is not predictable by us. Sometimes we guess something very good but the time has come when we just get something from a previous expectation of fighting. But I am sure that in the next 10 years bitcoin still has tremendous growth

[safari88]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

[Yadstiker]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

The problems is the block size is quite full at the moment. It cannot support more transactions, so people will not use bitcoin.

[Sontoloyo]

I think in 20 years again, there might be about 75 million people using the bitcoin regularly. It will become a reserve currency and price about $10,000

[leowonderful]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

The problems is the block size is quite full at the moment. It cannot support more transactions, so people will not use bitcoin.

It's not quite that full yet; a normal transaction will usually be processed within one or two blocks, and backups in transactions usually only happen after a hashrate drop or a big gap in blocktime, and those are usually fixed very quickly; it won't drive people away, but transactions are arguably more secure in Bitcoin than most other payment systems.

Of course, there will always be more BIPs that can increase block size or whatever we'll need in the future; either way, what needs fixing will eventually be fixed.

[piloder]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

The problems is the block size is quite full at the moment. It cannot support more transactions, so people will not use bitcoin.

It's not quite that full yet; a normal transaction will usually be processed within one or two blocks, and backups in transactions usually only happen after a hashrate drop or a big gap in blocktime, and those are usually fixed very quickly; it won't drive people away, but transactions are arguably more secure in Bitcoin than most other payment systems.

Of course, there will always be more BIPs that can increase block size or whatever we'll need in the future; either way, what needs fixing will eventually be fixed.

Sometimes if there is a big gap in the block time, there will be a big hold up in the mempool. If the block size is 2MB, the problem will be less severe.

[leowonderful]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

The problems is the block size is quite full at the moment. It cannot support more transactions, so people will not use bitcoin.

It's not quite that full yet; a normal transaction will usually be processed within one or two blocks, and backups in transactions usually only happen after a hashrate drop or a big gap in blocktime, and those are usually fixed very quickly; it won't drive people away, but transactions are arguably more secure in Bitcoin than most other payment systems.

Of course, there will always be more BIPs that can increase block size or whatever we'll need in the future; either way, what needs fixing will eventually be fixed.

Sometimes if there is a big gap in the block time, there will be a big hold up in the mempool. If the block size is 2MB, the problem will be less severe.

It doesn't last forever, and it's usually fixed by a quick succession of blocks after the blockgap. Things like this naturally happen, and blocksize is good where it is now- payments get confirmed relatively quickly. Like I said, improvements will be made when they are actually needed, which will be decided by mining hashpower or bips(AFAIK). The last time we tried to expand blocksize, it didn't work so well.

[Umotand]

transaction costs will be the only source of income for miners. to keep the miners alive throughout the world should use digital currencies as the main medium of exchange, so it is likely that transaction costs will rise due to increased demand for the transaction.

The problems is the block size is quite full at the moment. It cannot support more transactions, so people will not use bitcoin.

It's not quite that full yet; a normal transaction will usually be processed within one or two blocks, and backups in transactions usually only happen after a hashrate drop or a big gap in blocktime, and those are usually fixed very quickly; it won't drive people away, but transactions are arguably more secure in Bitcoin than most other payment systems.

Of course, there will always be more BIPs that can increase block size or whatever we'll need in the future; either way, what needs fixing will eventually be fixed.

Sometimes if there is a big gap in the block time, there will be a big hold up in the mempool. If the block size is 2MB, the problem will be less severe.

It doesn't last forever, and it's usually fixed by a quick succession of blocks after the blockgap. Things like this naturally happen, and blocksize is good where it is now- payments get confirmed relatively quickly. Like I said, improvements will be made when they are actually needed, which will be decided by mining hashpower or bips(AFAIK). The last time we tried to expand blocksize, it didn't work so well.

Most of the time, the mempool size is over 2MB. So you have to pay higher fee to compete to be processed earlier.

[Johnyloco]

I didn't realize this before, but indeed, it makes sense. So we're stuck with small blocks because miners are short sighted focussing on todays income only.
Mining hardware becomes obsolete very fast, caused by an increase in difficulty. This is an extra reason for miners not to think ahead much.
I used to think Satoshi covered all major parts of Bitcoin, but this may be something he didn't anticipate.

[morantis]

well, most people have come to realize over the past year that mining at home is a rare payoff.  it takes pretty decent hardware in the ASIC area to get much of anything at all and it is becoming clear to people more and more.  that should mean fewer and fewer miners over the next few years, ten people give up GPU mining and two people take up ASIC's per se.  eventually the 2016 blocks will shift this generation of mining to the next difficulty and it is very possible that it could be lower next time with the constant shifting of mining power. Plus, it is getting to the point where there enough active coins that many people are more focused on trading and spending those coins. so, fewer wallets mining, lower block reward and fewer new coin TX's, this could be seen as a stabilization trend and move into a bright future

[Johnyloco]

True,

As time going difficulty level of mining blocks for bitcoins is increasing. And as per halving already price of bitcoin mining block reward is set to 12.5 BTC.

But as predefined price of bitcoin will rise more than whatever is current, so mining of bitcoin can be affordable for huge rig owner. Small units will not possible to get good ROI with mining.

And on more important things as maximum blocks will be solved transaction fee for bitcoin will be higher. So that will also advantage to miner for getting reward for verification.