The latest Avalon announcement in China(Translated). Batch #3, price and more.

[Newscastix]

wow...five fucking grand? no....

5.5 grand.... we just hit nearly $64 

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[Gomeler]

Well shit. There goes that plan. Back to playing the waiting game to see if BFL delivers or if another vender releases a competitive product.

[davecoin]

Well shit. There goes that plan. Back to playing the waiting game to see if BFL delivers or if another vender releases a competitive product.

  Right there with ya.

[Dalkore]

Thoughts:   Glad for the update.  

Batch #3:  I do think the price is a little steep, I was expecting in the $3-4,000 range.  Yes they could of maintained the price but they do deserve a profit for the hard work they provided.   I do think that at current exchanges rates for USD, they are trying to limit single large orders.  They also could raise the price because they are now developing Generation 2 Avalon on a more efficient chip and upfront costs are even more capital intensive (this is what I think).

I likely will be participating in Batch #3 as well, I want Avalon to continue development so its worth the price if they continue to develop.  Yifu is correct that Batch #1 customer are the real heroes by putting their money where there mouth was when BFL was showing the Big Guns.   Heck, I am going to start learning Mandarin tonight (Rosetta doesn't offer Cantonese   ).  


Dalkore

[FreedomCoin]

How do we know that they wont take this large amount of BTC per order and just bail?

guess no one knows till it happens.

[iCEBREAKER]

It turned out selling ASIC pre-orders (*cough* Ponzi *cough*) is a better business model than actually shipping a product?

Oh God, this is glorious!   

TYVM Avalon, for falling so far behind schedule. 

That keeps my GPU mining profitable and helps my ASICMINER shares to continue paying absolutely outstanding dividends.

It's also nice to see the arrogant "we're not going to ever be tardy like foolish BFL" attitude get smacked down.  Talk about having to eat your words...!

Please Team Avalon, consider extending your well-deserved vacation into a nice long sabbatical or even early retirement.

You have worked so hard and totally deserve to run off to Bora Bora with all those suckers' (oops I mean customers') pre-order money.

Stay there for the entire summer, and winter too.  You don't need the stress of working in a hot factory, or responding to the mean girls at BTCtalk.

If you run low on cash, simply double your prices again and offer a Batch 4.

Real soon now?  No tech support?  Shut up and take my Bitcoins!

Greetings from the Four Seasons, Team Avalon's tropical new HQ.

[Minor Miner]

Icebreaker;
There is no need for sarcasm.  As to FS Bora Bora, I was just there, great place nice mahogany boat picks you up at the landing strip and takes you over.   On my way back (sucks having to leave), I met two great guys named Josh and Sonny from MO.   Funny guys, they were laughing about getting some serious debugging done in the next month while they stayed there.

[hope2907]

higher risk higher return
if you buy now and BFL delay untill july or scamed =)) then you make big money but if they shipped while batch being done, then you gonna blablabla, use you imagination =))

[m3whiteknight]

wow 88 coins for one, five grand ? their batch 2 is not even ship yet, heck even some of their batch 1 customer still have not receive their unit.  If we order now, we will not get it until 3 months later or more . By that time  Asicminer put up their 100 terahash and Avalon unit will make 0.5 coin a days, killing all ROI. 


If Avalon say they has one in stock ready to ship RIGHT NOW  , then it may be worth it. But we all know that WILL NOT happen

3 or MORE months to get one , totally not worth it

[Soros Shorts]

I guess this answers the question: "Why sell ASICs when you can just use them to mine for yourselves?"

Because if you you can deliver a more or less timely product that works you can set the price to whatever you want.

[kaerf]

FYI...i paid BTC114++ for a batch 1 unit and 75+ for a batch 2 unit. just to put it in perspective.

At BTC88, it's probably going to take somewhere around 4-6 month (if not more) to make back the initial investment. that's still pretty good, but 6 months is a long time in the bitcoin world....who knows what will happen. by july we're supposedly going to see the addition of ASICMiner 50TH, 28nm ASICS, 100TH and BFL (if they ever deliver). BTC88 at this point in time is certainly a big risk. i will probably avoid batch 3 and risk the alternatives. i'm all about the cheapest $/GH now

[Aseras]

wow 88 coins for one, five grand ? their batch 2 is not even ship yet, heck even some of their batch 1 customer still have not receive their unit.  If we order now, we will not get it until 3 months later or more . By that time  Asicminer put up their 100 terahash and Avalon unit will make 0.5 coin a days, killing all ROI. 


If Avalon say they has one in stock ready to ship RIGHT NOW  , then it may be worth it. But we all know that WILL NOT happen

3 or MORE months to get one , totally not worth it

I have a batch one and batch 2 order. Still haven't received my batch one, and I was in the first wave. I did get an email from yifu letting me know my batch one order was shipped.

I agree with you. If they were ready to ship right now, it may be worth the 80+btc. But with an unknown wait time, and having to harass and plead to get any answers, and still not a tracking number for my batch one, no way.

I just cant justify the risk, and the cost of batch 3. Which sucks because I was heavily considering going "all in" and buying 10+ units.

[kaerf]

I agree with you. If they were ready to ship right now, it may be worth the 80+btc. But with an unknown wait time, and having to harass and plead to get any answers, and still not a tracking number for my batch one, no way.

I just cant justify the risk, and the cost of batch 3. Which sucks because I was heavily considering going "all in" and buying 10+ units.

ah yes. i forgot to mention that too. this is a great point. no customer service makes this an unpleasant buying experience too.

[m3whiteknight]

you are right, time fly in bitcoin world and 6-8 months is too long. Especially Avalon is still not even ship their batch 2 yet. Asicminer is adding speed to their hashing power by the day. by the time Avalon batch 3 come , it may be too late( for five grand price tag )

[FreedomCoin]

if these prices are real why havnt they updated the site with the info? maybe it looks bad to go from batch 1 at 1299 batch 2 at 1499 and batch three at 5500.. lol

[relm9]

At the current BTC value the price can be justified but I'm not so sure 3-4 months down the line. Good luck to those who buy, I'll be sitting this one out.

[m3whiteknight]

At the current BTC value the price can be justified but I'm not so sure 3-4 months down the line. Good luck to those who buy, I'll be sitting this one out.

that is another good point. BTC price may go down and reduce ROI futher. If I have to spend US dollar to BTC to buy avalon and btc went down half  then I already lost half my investment even before I see my unit.

[Minor Miner]

Maybe someone on here could model the vol of BTC and what that means to the risk of paying an investment made TODAY off with a stock at that vol when you will not start receiving those "shares" for at least 7-8 weeks in the future?
I imagine when it is quantified the risk adjusted return on capital is far greater than people who just "assume" they are mining and receiving a nice steady stream of BTC that are stable at $60

[CrazyGuy]

...
Asking for a price in btc, ok. Thats the idea of btc. Asking for a huge amount basing it on expected ROI is absurd. Bitcoin value could crash tomorrow.

Actually, asking for 88 BTC doesn't change the fact that you would make your 88 BTC back in a few months, given that there is no consumer based competition with a working product. If BTC price crashes, then the 88 BTC you mined with the device is just worth less.  

Now here's the real question, if BTC value goes down to $10 two days after they start accepting batch 3 preorders, are they going to honor the 88 BTC price, or have a sudden change of heart and start charging $1500 again? At some point, merchants are going to need to list their products in static BTC prices to stabilize the currency. I don't think that time is now, but you can't blame them for trying. A high static BTC price at this point is going to devalue BTC and possibly start driving the exchange rate down.

I still think they are going to sell out though, barring some really good news from BFL this week.

[Minor Miner]

...
Asking for a price in btc, ok. Thats the idea of btc. Asking for a huge amount basing it on expected ROI is absurd. Bitcoin value could crash tomorrow.

Actually, asking for 88 BTC doesn't change the fact that you would make your 88 BTC back in a few months, given that there is no consumer based competition with a working product. If BTC price crashes, then the 88 BTC you mined with the device is just worth less.  

Now here's the real question, if BTC value goes down to $10 two days after they start accepting batch 3 preorders, are they going to honor the 88 BTC price, or have a sudden change of heart and start charging $1500 again? At some point, merchants are going to need to list their products in static BTC prices to stabilize the currency. I don't think that time is now, but you can't blame them for trying. A high static BTC price at this point is going to devalue BTC and possibly start driving the exchange rate down.

I still think they are going to sell out though, barring some really good news from BFL this week.

The only problem with your analysis is that for it to apply to me (or anyone else), you must have the 88 BTC.  If you use EU or USD to buy the 88 BTC, then the vol really does matter to the people and they have FX risk.