Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd

[philipma1957]

Okay first off VRobb  was the winner of last contest 50 usd in btc.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15471616#msg15471616
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630301#msg15630301
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1538811.msg15630787#msg15630787




 So  a >>>>>     New game.

PICKS BEGIN AT 1116


When game began about 20 months ago coins were about 200 usd  0.10 btc was about 20 usd. we paid  in .10 btc numbers.  Our first donator to the game  spent over 2.8 coins.  I have been the sole payer for the last 4 months and have paid .9 coins  so 3.7 coins have been awarded for free, nada, nothing  no cost.  I am still able to do this due to my signature fee.  Which I put into payments here.


First rule is I decide all rules since it is a free chance to get some coin.
Second rule is you need to be  a forum member since April 15th of 2016
Third rule is you need to have made 30 posts.  I will read them and decide if you appear to be real.
Fourth rule is if I think you are double dipping your picks won't be allowed
Fifth rule is we open picks at 1116 and end picks at 716   just about 2.5 days to pick.
Sixth rule is  this is for fun so I tend to allow off topic and don't delete very much.
Seventh rule is your pick should look like  -1.2 = philipma1957 or   +1.2 = philipma1957
Eight rule is  if you pick a used pick I will assign a pick to you and you are stuck with the one I assign.
Ninth rule no pick changes
Tenth rule no pre picks via pm's
Eleven rule no late picks.

Anything I missed above feel free to mention.

I self mod due to seriouscoin
I always pick -1.2 due to seriouscoin




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   213,066,572,865 (-0.20%)

Adjust time:   After 1988 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,615,967,409 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   23:20 (2.3 minutes ago)

current numbers above  I notice some graph issues between two websites.
bitcoinwisdom seems to have a false spike

I need to look into the issue.  if we need to change sites for official diff numbers I will

[1714472174]

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[1714472174]

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[1714472174]

1714472174

[alh]

So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run. The price of BTC doesn't seem to be going anywhere for the moment. This current difficulty period is all at 12.5BTC reward. The only unknown for the next 2 weeks is BTC price, and that appears moderately stable.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).

Thanks again for running this, Phil. 

[Cuidler]

So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).

If many people really switching off, you should see increased supply of such mining equipment for sale on ebay, mostly S4, S5 and S7 stuff, the older stuff had to mine on free electricity even before the halving I guess. Some might switch off and just wait if price increase, but there should be enought of those who try to sell on ebay instead thus increasing the supply of older mining equipment on market. I dont see any dramatic reduction on ebays prices so far, which increased supply should make.

About Bitmain replacing S7s for S9s on its own mining farm, it makes most sence to replace and sell the S7s before you even start selling the S9s. So I guess they run S9s only already and the increased difficulty in last months is the new Bitmain S9s mining farm equealing to their own 3x hashrate increase, while the replaced S7s already sold.

[philipma1957]

So, the question in my mind is: How closely will the deployment of the S9's that are for sale match the shutdown of less efficient gear that should fall off the network? The halving must have rendered at least some gear unprofitable to run.

I wonder the extent to which Bitmain has been replacing S7's with equivalent hash (i.e. stable hashrate), and not stable power consumption (2-3x hashrate increase).

If many people really switching off, you should see increased supply of such mining equipment for sale on ebay, mostly S4, S5 and S7 stuff, the older stuff had to mine on free electricity even before the halving I guess. Some might switch off and just wait if price increase, but there should be enought of those who try to sell on ebay instead thus increasing the supply of older mining equipment on market. I dont see any dramatic reduction on ebays prices so far, which increased supply should make.

About Bitmain replacing S7s for S9s on its own mining farm, it makes most sence to replace and sell the S7s before you even start selling the S9s. So I guess they run S9s only already and the increased difficulty in last months is the new Bitmain S9s mining farm equealing to their own 3x hashrate increase, while the replaced S7s already sold.

  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:

no new info for 9 days



the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,022,326,414 (-1.63%)
Adjust time:   After 1932 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,563,972,978 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   11:35 (3.8 minutes ago)







http://nextdifficulty.com/

[alh]

It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.

[notlist3d]

It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.

I'm wondering the same if finally some miners are going offline.  I thought leading up to halving we would see a lot bigger increase which I was happily wrong on. Really it is pretty pretty slow on dropping off on old gear.   I would really like to see drop off how much is home/hobby miners vs big miners.  If you think about it a lot of these bigger mines spent a good amount of money upfront for info structure (cooling, wiring, etc).    So it would make sense they might re-invest.

I am happy with BTC price though it's been pretty steady.   No big drop off on value side has been a great thing for those long term holding. 

[philipma1957]

It may be that we are starting to see an effect of the halving on difficulty. Both bitcoinwisdom (-1.98%) and nextdifficulty (-2.1%) are showing difficulty decreases. We'll have to see how it actually works over the next 12-13 days, but this might actually be "real".

BTC price still at $673.

I'm wondering the same if finally some miners are going offline.  I thought leading up to halving we would see a lot bigger increase which I was happily wrong on. Really it is pretty pretty slow on dropping off on old gear.   I would really like to see drop off how much is home/hobby miners vs big miners.  If you think about it a lot of these bigger mines spent a good amount of money upfront for info structure (cooling, wiring, etc).    So it would make sense they might re-invest.

I am happy with BTC price though it's been pretty steady.   No big drop off on value side has been a great thing for those long term holding. 

well  +1 %  0% -2%  all work for those that purchased s-9's early.

remember  1200ph of the network is old gear.

 400PH older then s-7 
 800ph s-7+ avalon 6 
 400 ph s-9

all approximate but not far off.

So  you had cheap power 5.646 cents cents  and 20ph in s-5's

before the ½ ing your farm would be earning  14912 usd a day
after the ½ ing your farm would be earning        3.40 usd per day

you figure I will mine for a bit as I am not losing  so you mine 10 days.

and you now decide I will swap out s-5's slowly for s-9's

why slowly you are not losing money so why rush.

As for why aren't you listing the 20,000 s-5's on ebay  simple you are a chinese farm  and you don't list on ebay

[alh]

Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

[leowonderful]

Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

Probably nearly no discount at all. They'll just yawn like it happens every day and offer you 3.1% discount. A substantial amount of the network is used gear, and not all of it will turn off; Most people with S7s and Avalon 6s must have pretty cheap electricity, since difficulty hasn't really moved much at all. Difficulty will almost certainly drop, but we don't know how much at this point. It could go from 1% to 10%, as this is a pretty uncertain point. Even the network hashrate shows this as hashpower has been in flux for a few days now.

[philipma1957]

Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

and lets say   this pretend farm does 5 s-9's a week  in a week  he gains 60th but he can take 50 s-5's off line.

losing 57.5 th

 net hash rate gain = 2.5 th

power savings 7000 watts  for the near gear adds on but 30,000 watts drops

So that is 23 kwatts saved which is 552 kwatts per day and 3864 kwatts saved in a week.  that is 220 usd in power savings with a gain in 2.5th hash rate.

So this 20ph s-5 farm should simply add 5 s-9s a week for now since price is high.
If and when price drops he can speed up his conversion.



now that is the s-5 guy with cheap power.

if you are 20ph in s-7's  with 6 cent power  just mine and hold your coins

[Mikestang]

  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:


the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes?  Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate?  I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.

[philipma1957]

  As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:


the gray line  on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes?  Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate?  I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.

I checked  back at random since nov.  all seem good before the ½ing but a lot of graph data after ½ ing is wrong.

It is a big undertaking to fully analyze it.  But fast checks seem to show issues started after ½ing.  I think that all sites have not fully updated their soft ware

[TheYankeesWin!]

Then Phil please do a real world or real time difficulty %.

[philipma1957]

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

421642 (Main Chain)   2016-07-21 02:40:53

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42


299 blocks made.


2 days 3 hours 20 min

288
  18
    2

308 = 0%

so 299/308-1 = -2.92%
but a long way to go.



look below at this trend


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s



So May 12 to July 20    1,390,530,167    to     1,483,613,935  in hash rate  not so bad

[VRobb]

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations?  If you don't update the block reward then that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc?  If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem? 

smh 

[philipma1957]

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations?  If you don't update the block reward than that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc?  If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem?  

smh  

I am not sure and I don't want to put on a tinfoil hat, but  it is  the spec thread  so  how about it is deliberate to deceive  newer investors?

Now that is the true tinfoil hat/ conspiracy spec.


Not saying that.

this is still out of date


so it can not be checked against here.



this one below seems to be the best graph

[d57heinz]

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

[Mikestang]

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations? 

Do we know how these sites calculate (estimate would be a more accurate word) network hash rate?  If we know their method we might be able to figure out why.

[philipma1957]

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

  IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing  but nothing major.

 

@ Mikestang  you have a good question as  when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites. 

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.


   pretty simple  144 blocks per day is  0%  so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

  Example  say 3 days  so 3 x 144 = 432 

so 420 made
    432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1  = -0.0277777   x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 % 
so if last diff was


 Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s



just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to  1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates  :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot  they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.

[d57heinz]

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe.  finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:)  tough team on us last few series.  got a quick question.  s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f.  humidity if off the charts.  im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less.  running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while.  Also same with 625.  what is min i should go with and not have issues?  Thanks


on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken.  Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

  IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing  but nothing major.

 

@ Mikestang  you have a good question as  when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites. 

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.


   pretty simple  144 blocks per day is  0%  so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

  Example  say 3 days  so 3 x 144 = 432 

so 420 made
    432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1  = -0.0277777   x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 % 
so if last diff was


 Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s



just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to  1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates  :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot  they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.

thanks so much.. will give the 650 a shot till the weather breaks.  Finally got my s9's today.. 54.88$ for customs fees.  Which i expected>  just glad they made it. 

best Regards
d57heinz