Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

[1714632238]

1714632238

[1714632238]

1714632238

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days


Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

[alh]

Looks like you are right. The electric bills have arrived, and numerous machines have been turned off. The nextdifficulty site is projecting a -4% adjustment, with a possibility of -8%. Nothing particularly exciting on the BTC price front at $655/BTC.

[mwizard]

There may be a short term small drop over the next few weeks as any high electricity cost systems turn off.

But over the next 12 months I would expect to see a large increase in difficulty.  The hash rate should double or triple over the next year as the S9s and similar 14/16 nm systems come on line.

The S9 currently has a variable cost break even of 30 cents per kWh.  They would still be profitable to run for large miners even if the network hash rate was 4 times higher.  

Over the long term electricity cost and Bitcoin value are the two factors driving the hash rate.  They determine when miners are turned off.  Anyone paying under say 5 cents per kWh can expect their S9 to have a very long life.

So expect a small fall in hash rate now, and a climbing hash rate over the next few months even if the Bitcoin value stays unchanged.  

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days


Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   205,231,862,280 (-3.87%)
Adjust time:   After 1327 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,382,169,496 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


Still slowing down.



Difficulty History

Date                  Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


If you look at May 12 to Aug 15th  which is ninety two  days

Diff will be  very good.
We may hit the aug 2 with a diff at 200  and that would stay until about aug 15th.

a 92 day stretch of   1% diff jumps.   maybe 

Another reason for drop is USA is smoking hot temps in most of the usa.  so some down clocks are happening.

I would love to see btc drop  to 500-565 price.

This would really cause a strong drop in hash rate.

[TheYankeesWin!]

Phil I see we keep going lower on bitcoinwisdom.
Are we going to go  under 200 Diff?


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,394,973,862 (-4.26%)
Adjust time:   After 1275 Blocks, About 9.3 days

[philipma1957]

Some fast numbers:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,273,155,599 (-4.32%) <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be 204...
Adjust time:   After 1239 Blocks, About 9.1 days  >> picks will start at  1116
Hashrate(?):   1,382,033,094 GH/s


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be  201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247


https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   422121
Total BTC   15.777M
 
Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   206563080941 in 1239 blks <<<<<<<<<<<<<new diff to be 206
 
Network total   1375352.598 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.40 / 667 s   <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 5.40 should be 6.00 this is down 10%

all of the above are most likely reflecting the turning off of .5 watt efficient  or worse gear

  and of course summer heat as most hashrate is north of the Equator.

 I am hoping for this to continue for this jump and all of August.

I would love to hit Sept at  a diff of 185 to 190.

After that it will be  upwards.


422123 (Main Chain)   2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721%  real time.

while -7.3721%  seems good  it is early.

but if we do that we will get under a diff of 200

[alh]

We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.

Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.

[topiOleg]

http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be  201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247


422123 (Main Chain)   2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721%  real time.

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

[philipma1957]

We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.

Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.

Bitmaintech should raise the price a hair but offer a coupon for later use.

So next batch comes out say Aug 1 at 1999 plus shipping but a 300 usd coupon for sept 1 or later.

Logic would be   no one is selling anything and if Avalon does drop a miner in very late August or early sept  that 300 dollar coupon off another s-9 would be a good way to hurt avalon.

But frankly avalon always stays back a bit away from fighting or competing with bitmaintech.

Well right now we are really low

 http://nextdifficulty.com    Conservative: -5% -5.9% Continous: -8.6 % Next Difficulty Value:200824047042

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Estimated Next Difficulty:   203,100,322,696 (-4.87%)

https://bitcoincharts.com   206554900317   -3.2%

https://mining-profit.com   198548026029   -7%

[skuser]

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty

[in2tactics]

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty

I have always appreciated the simple layout of your site. Are you planning to update the halving clock?

[philipma1957]

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

Actually the leftmost conservative number is 'realtime' based on last 1500 blocks mined (regardless of to which diff period they belong to) so it tries to grab some recent trend. I saw no reason adding shorter term calulations because they just add confusion to people who don't understand variance and other statistical stuff behind difficulty.

After block 1500 it becomes the realtime diff estimate as you would call it because it starts to include all mined blocks in current difficulty

So nextdifficulty.com is your site?

Seems nice I need to look at it more.

We are 1146  blocks to go we start picks at:
1116

[VRobb]

Looks like it's game on:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    202,826,305,189 (-5.00%)
Adjust time:    After 1115 Blocks, About 8.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,370,532,443 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    10:20 (1.5 minutes ago)

Let's get a nice drop in diff this round!

VRobb = -6.5

Good luck all, and once again big ups to philip for giving us stat junkies a fun time!

[gt_addict]

gt_addict = -4.7

[wpt1wpt1]

wpt1wpt1 = -5.8

please

[GreatNorthData]

GreatNorthData = -3%

Please and thank you!

[philipma1957]

My pick is -1.2 and as usual if I win I will roll it over.

[Goms]

My pick is -1.5

[Mikestang]

Wow, I was out of town away from a computer all weekend and look at that drop off!  Definitely gear being shut off around the globe.  Whether it's temporary because of summer heat and electricity bills, or a sign of things to come I'm not complaining.  Let's go big!  Big negative.