Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction?

[piramida]

Be realistic, if you just had some of your money stolen from you, will you run to some new kid of the block currency, with some potential, but also with a large risk of losing all? Burnt with a little loss, I think many people would just stash whatever they can salvage from their accounts either in paper or (smarter ones) in gold. Not online, sorry, even though it makes sense to you and me, but not to a scared herd.

[rpietila]

Me to, going to visit my bank when it opens this morning and get rid of any of my European stocks and zero my accounts except what i need to pay my bills.
 

I also go to cash only mode tomorrow morning.

[ArticMine]

They very well can head our way. They can withdraw 100 EUR a day from their bank accounts and buy Bitcoin in an Euro cost averaging way. One can build a decent Bitcoin portfolio by buying 100 EUR worth of Bitcoin a day even with current prices.

They also need to live with that money.

Not with all of by a long shot. In a time of crisis it only makes more sense to cut out needless expenses.

[bubblesort]

Anyone in Cyprus, what's the boots-on-the-ground report?

I wouldn't put too much stock in the news reports on this topic. 

Follow Zeroday's posts in this thread, starting here.

[Cluster2k]

There is speculation that wealthy bank depositors have already withdrawn all their money from Cyprus.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

That leaves people with over 100k euro who potentially want to move their wealth, any any guaranteed deposit holders who are fearful and want to move their funds too.  A much smaller market for bitcoins, but some none the less.

[siulynot]

Many of the big depositors in Cyprus won't be able to get at their money, and the smaller depositors are going to have to deal with withdrawal restrictions and difficult international transfers.  That said, many people are hoping that Cypriots will probably start buying bitcoins as soon as they can, which will hopefully happen on Tuesday.

You contradict yourself in your post...

You accept people will not have access to move their money in big quantities...
Cypriots have been for more than a week without access to their money, and you are saying that the first thing they will do is go a buy a currency that not much people understand yet, and on top of that you say that they will do it as soon as they have their money in their pocket (as of tomorrow??) WTF!

People have bills to pay, they have families to feed, they have mortgages to pay... not everyone has extra money to experiment on this new cryptocurrency... Im sure more than 90% of the people wont get it even if you explain it to them carefully.

STOP THE FUD! You are making a lot of people believe something that is not real... if Cyprus bank issue will have an impact in bitcoin it will be long term... years will pass first before big herds come and use bitcoin as a bank.

[bubblesort]

STOP THE FUD! You are making a lot of people believe something that is not real... if Cyprus bank issue will have an impact in bitcoin it will be long term... years will pass first before big herds come and use bitcoin as a bank.

I didn't mean to spread FUD at all.  I was interested in seeing what the community here thought about what would happen when the Cypriot banks open.  When the Cyprus situation blew up last week, before we knew the banks would be closed for so long, I remember a lot of posts on the bitcoin subreddit saying "it will be interesting to see what happens when the banks reopen," then the price shot up another $20 US or so over the next few days.  Add to that the mainstream press discovering bitcoin and saying that Cyprus is driving the bitcoin boom and well... this seems like it might be a useful conversation to have.

Me, I'm new to this and I'm still wrapping my head around how the market moves.  I can't forecast this at all, but I'm guessing that other people here can.

If anything this thread is removing some FUD.  I don't see a single person here saying that they expect everybody in Cyprus to convert fully to bitcoin and drive the price up over $100 US in a day or two.  That makes sense to me, because I wasn't really buying the whole Cyprus is driving all the gains story either.  Like I said, though, I'm new, so I'm not really in a good position to forecast.

Full disclosure:  I own no bitcoins, bitcoin derivatives or cryptocurrency assets at all right now.  Today I plan to make a Linux partition with TrueCrypt, install the software and buy some BTC in order to buy VPN service with bitcoin because my current VPN provider is not that great, but I don't plan to invest until I've watched the volatility recede and have a deeper understanding of what I'm buying.

[siulynot]

STOP THE FUD! You are making a lot of people believe something that is not real... if Cyprus bank issue will have an impact in bitcoin it will be long term... years will pass first before big herds come and use bitcoin as a bank.

I didn't mean to spread FUD at all.  I was interested in seeing what the community here thought about what would happen when the Cypriot banks open.  When the Cyprus situation blew up last week, before we knew the banks would be closed for so long, I remember a lot of posts on the bitcoin subreddit saying "it will be interesting to see what happens when the banks reopen," then the price shot up another $20 US or so over the next few days.  Add to that the mainstream press discovering bitcoin and saying that Cyprus is driving the bitcoin boom and well... this seems like it might be a useful conversation to have.

Me, I'm new to this and I'm still wrapping my head around how the market moves.  I can't forecast this at all, but I'm guessing that other people here can.

If anything this thread is removing some FUD.  I don't see a single person here saying that they expect everybody in Cyprus to convert fully to bitcoin and drive the price up over $100 US in a day or two.  That makes sense to me, because I wasn't really buying the whole Cyprus is driving all the gains story either.  Like I said, though, I'm new, so I'm not really in a good position to forecast.

Full disclosure:  I own no bitcoins, bitcoin derivatives or cryptocurrency assets at all right now.  Today I plan to make a Linux partition with TrueCrypt, install the software and buy some BTC in order to buy VPN service with bitcoin because my current VPN provider is not that great, but I don't plan to invest until I've watched the volatility recede and have a deeper understanding of what I'm buying.

Very nice that you clarify...

People have tried to make believe that Cyprus have done something to do directly with the btc recent rise and thats not real. Reality is a little bit less optimistic, what in reality happened is that people is speculating that Cyprus WILL HAVE IN THE FUTURE something to do with bitcoin and are desperately buying now thinking that when people in Cyprus begin to buy bitcoins price will explode.

Its called a bubble.

Very good for you to wait for stabilization, very few newbies have that reasoning. Im proud of you.

Every price above $15 has been pure speculation, there is no support on anything above $47, even from $25 to $40 there is no big supports either. Im sure price will eventually be below $20 before continuing to rise, if that doesnt happen, then bitcoin will fail miserably when less people expect it.

[jubalix]

Actually, no. Nobody expects any serious immediate cash flow into Bitcoin from Cypriots.

I guess some expectation of continuing interest from Russians, Canadians, French, British, Italian, Spanish, New Zealanders, Australians and others are not unreasonable.

What is expected is another working week of capital inflows into mtgox and other exchanges.

Cyprus is just like a litmus test that shows true intention of the banking cartel. What happens with that yellow or blue piece of litmus paper after the test is done? That is irrelevant.

This x 100
I can only cocur that cyprus has validated all the tinfoil hats from being conspiracy nuts to potentially credible

The international commuinty now has irrevockable evidence they will come for your bank account

[Littleshop]

Cyprus money will have little effect on bitcoin.  Maybe as the terms become more clear, others in the weaker EU countries may start to think about bitcoin and that will have more of an impact.  Cyprus is a small country and depositors are not going to get easy access to their money even if they wanted to buy bitcoins.  

[Littleshop]

I can only cocur that cyprus has validated all the tinfoil hats from being conspiracy nuts to potentially credible

The international commuinty now has irrevockable evidence they will come for your bank account

Well not really.  It is not THEY who are coming for your bank account.  It is that banks are not always safe due to poor investment choices.

While it has been clearly spelled out in detailed news stories, few people seem to understand what happened in Cyprus.  The money was LOST due to bad PRIVATE bank decisions.  The government is doing a (poor) job of cleaning things up, but the money was already lost.  It has been gone for a while actually. 

[Vladimir]

What is interesting to see is how fungible Euros are. By this I mean what premium black market will dictate for German Euros vs Cypriotic Euros.

[BitPirate]

How many people in Cyprus(from ~800,000), you believe they know bitcoin??

Again, why are people in this thread being so simplistic? It's the same kind of argument that spoils the debate on global warming, or GM crops.

Yes, the Cyprus situation will have a net positive effect on Bitcoin.

But no, that doesn't mean that it is a significant direct effect from people in Cyprus withdrawing their cash and putting it into BTC.

BTC will benefit indirectly from a slight loss in confidence in the Euro. I expect this will initially come from existing BTC adopters, but their enthusiasm will bring on board new adopters too.

So -- it's positive for Bitcoin, but the world isn't as small and simple as people are thinking.

[BTC Books]

What is interesting to see is how fungible Euros are. By this I mean what premium black market will dictate for German Euros vs Cypriotic Euros.

Are there any street numbers available for arbitrage?

[Dargo]

Cypriot banks won't open till Thursday

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyprus-eu-imf-agree-draft-002707985.html

[TraderTimm]

My sneaking suspicion is that those banks won't open at all.

They're only increasing the probability of a run, and they have to know that.

[BTC Books]

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

[nyusternie]

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

yeah, since i heard rumors of a 30% tax on the largest depositors, i have been patiently waiting for this to happen. americans know all too well from our recent wall street fiascoes that the rich NEVER lose. the system is so pathetic. those claiming FUD should realize that this extends way past cyprus, and will almost certainly ripple throughout the eu and beyond. and once this "debt haircut" precedent is set (whatever the outcome may be) there is almost certain to be "real" fear by the citizens of any country in slightest bit of financial troubles.

i really don't believe the recent btc surge is a direct result of any new (or potential) cyprus / russian deposits; but more likely from all the worldwide press coverage that is introducing bitcoin (as a wealth storage mechanism) for the first time to the mainstream population. at this point, any mention of bitcoin (that doesn't reference drugs or gambling) is bound to have positive effect on the price.

[Littleshop]

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

Not really true.  There are limits on withdrawals.  They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit.   You cant pull money out past zero. 

[BTC Books]

Whoa!

It looks possible that the Russians got their money out.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/have-russians-already-quietly-withdrawn-all-their-cash-cyprus

They quote a fresh Reuters article:

While ordinary Cypriots queued at ATM machines to withdraw a few hundred euros as credit card transactions stopped, other depositors used an array of techniques to access their money.

No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.

Amazing, if true.

Not really true.  There are limits on withdrawals.  They 'locked down' at least 10% by reducing the balance on all accounts over the 100k euro limit.   You cant pull money out past zero. 

We'll see, I guess.  I tend toward a bit more cynicism than that.

Russian to banker:  "You want to make a big mistake or a little mistake?"

Banker:  "What's the little mistake?"

Russian:  "You conveniently forget to put any restrictions at all on your branches in London and Russia."

Banker:  "Hmmm.  And the big mistake?"

Russian:  "That's a little more... personal."