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Author Topic: Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch  (Read 55239 times)
AnonyMint (OP)
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May 13, 2013, 05:17:20 PM
Last edit: May 14, 2013, 06:05:54 AM by AnonyMint
 #241

THE LINK TO THE EVIDENCE OF 78 YEAR CYCLE IS AT THE END OF THIS POST. STUDY IT. YOU WILL BE SHOCKED AT YOUR IGNORANCE.

You have no clue what statism means and the economics of the collective. Read the comments at the links at the bottom of this page.
I don't agree with this in the sense that you only look at half the story (It makes me think you have no clue as to the function statism has in any society).
I think you are only talking about when statism goes out of control.
I fully agree that statism out of control is a bad thing. But no statism at all is also a bad thing.
The only solution is to make sure there is a healthy balance.
Megadeath will happen on both extremes.
Too much statism is megadeath.
Too little statism is also megadeath (because people cannot voluntarily peacefully co-exist when resources are scarse).

Please read this rebuttal (including the comments below the linked one):

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-401360

you hang around on bitcointalk talking about the bilderbergs?

For perhaps 10 days of my entire life, and just stated that I am leaving because I am stopping all work on cryptocurrencies.

LOL at how much fail is in that proposition.
You have no chance of not being part of the 1st world system, wherever you happen to live.

Except for the fact that I created coolpage.com back in 1998 from a Nipa Hut and was essentially the world's first social network with 1 million confirmed users at that time when the internet was tiny (had 1% of the internet building their websites with my product), and was earning a significant amount of money given I was the only employee.

And not to mention that precursor to friendster came around to buy me out, but only got a non-exclusive license because I didn't want stock options right before what I knew was a coming dot.com crash.

Should I mention I created one of world's first WYSIWYG commercial word processors back in 1986.

Or that I worked on what is now Corel Painter.

Your whole thought pattern is prove of that. You concern yourself with luxury problems of our society with no regard to the actual problems (and solutions to those problems) of third world countries. You show absolutely no insight in the actual dynamics that drive world economy. You put all blame in one thing (and that happens to be the subject of rich westerners conspiracy fantasies) and then see everything from that point of view.

Diarrhea.

To use bitcoin they need computers and fast internet to be ubiquitous.
But in a 3rd world country these are exactly the kinds of things that are missing.

To use bitcoin (not mine it), requires rudimentary smartphone with a client and rudimentary internet connection.

Both are ubiquitous in the Philippines where I am, which has higher penetration of cell phones than in the USA (most people own more than one), and there is an internet cafe on every street corner (if not 2 or 3).

Bitcoin is so terribly expensive in use that it is pretty much meaningless for people in the 3rd world.

Yes it is useless for transactions now. It is only a gambling casino right now (or speculation).

BTW, I can buy Bitcoin in the Philippines, do a damn Google search before you foam at the mouth.

I think those people are much more worried about their food and water supplies than about the possibility to sell their luxury products to some overseas fat white guy.

Nearly all income comes from exporting their products and people to service developed countries.

And they are fanatical about getting an education and about finding opportunities to generate income from abroad.

Usually these countries have very low industrialisation so WTF are they going to sell on the internet and in enough quantities to maintain their bitcoin ecosystem?

Native products, including bamboo furniture, artwork, carvings, but more importantly now they sell their time to do business process outsourcing, for example compiling corporate records, or medical records and zillion other things at 1/20th the cost of a westerner doing the same job.

There are even freelancers doing marketing surveys, writing blog posts to get share of advertising revenue, teaching english to other nationalities over Skype, and a zillion other things.

I personally know people doing all the things I mentioned above. I have been to their houses and see them doing it. Dumb ass!


If you don't have food then you can't invest in the kind of technology that is needed for bitcoin.

Come over here and see all the fat people. And girls with big breasts. Dumb ass!

Maybe you are thinking more of Africa, but I know someone in Ethiopia and they highly censor the internet, but the floodgate will open there, and the people are eating a lot more these days than you think. She recently added me to a social network I'd never heard of. People are much more aware and connected than you think. The change is happening so fast, that talking about last year's conditions is silly.

Bitcoin cannot ever help severely underdeveloped countries to get on top of their problems.
In some cases bitcoin could help but it can't change basic things like infrastructure or climate or political regime.

Who ever asserted that Bitcoin would solve every problem in the third world?

I was more interested in Bitcoin as a way other than gold for rich people to hide their capital from the statism failure that is going to confiscate everything in the next few years.

The idea that 3rd world people will become enslaved by bitcoin isrealy stupidly crazy. There is just not even the slightest posibility bitcoin will be meaningfull to these people.

If it would happen then it would be fascism, but it's just not very likely to go that way.

The entire world is going to be enslaved by the economic failure of statism and the confiscations are going to worsen the failure. The developing nations are short the dollar via massive dollar loans as the Fed has been flooding the world with dollars. Thus the more severe the confiscations (the less can be hidden), the worse the developing world is going to be hit with implosion and chaos.

Read an expert who called the decline in gold before it happened:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/


Yes, and fascism will be there with or without bitcoin. Welcome to the world, it has not been different since known history.

The hope was another place to store capital to prevent the fascists from confiscating it (via their control over government).

 
The solution is not in bitcoin, the sollution is in reducing the power of these bankers. Trusting in some technology to solve your problems for you is tremendously stupid.
And so trusting in bitcoin to solve all your problems is also tremendously stupid.
In the end all change starts with people, not with technology.
That is because the actual problem is people, not technology.

The failure is guaranteed by the economics of statism. You still haven't read the links I sent you. Google this "Some Iron Laws of Political Economics".

There is no solution to avoid the failure. The only hope is to save yourself.

And yes to help as many people as possible to learn how to do hitech, so they won't be unemployed. ANd this is all about technology.

But that won't stop the coming failure and confiscations.


These people would first need to have food, housing and work before bitcoin would start taking on a meaning.

They can't have that unless they know how to do hitech, because other skills are going into the dustbin of robotic and automation pre-history.

Everything hinges on technology. For example, online education, which I am creating:

http://copute.com/edu/

I don't know this Children's International. It seems it's a US organisation. Funny that you know about them when you live in a 3rd world country when i don't know about them and i live in a 1st world country.
I think you're bullshitting and have never in your life visited a 3rd world coutry.

I was born in the USA. I emigrated in my mid-30s (48 now), but not permanently except perhaps since 2006.

If they own your ass then bitcoin never had a chance anyway. Your whole paranoia about a weakness in bitcoin is fantasy because they can control the societal dynamics despite it.

Indeed, except if there was a technological alternative that can't be dominated by societal dynamics. And it turns out that there apparently isn't such a possibility, for the reason that non-centralized entropy can't be injected into an alternative that does not otherwise have a 51% attack. As I detailed in a link up thread.

You realy need to let go of bitcoin as a magical technology that will free you from the tyrany of society.

Indeed I have.

What would actually help is to stop consuming all the products pushed on to you by the tyranny. Stop using bitcoins, stop using the internet, stop using computers, stop using cars, stop using supermarkets, grow your own food, don't visit doctors or hospitals, dig your own water pit, and have enough land to do it all without taking away from others.

Nonsense. None of that would stop the guaranteed failure of statism over and over in history.

But clearly you have it too good in the current situation to do all these things that are required to live a 'free' life.

That all comes from technology, which the statism fights against, by propping up the old paradigms with debt. Thus leading the repeating 78 year failure as technology advances and people don't

The two world wars were due to cottage industry disrupted by mass production and thus massive unemployment.

The current one is about the personal computer disrupting western employment. First the jobs went the China to compete against automation, now the jobs are leaving china as the automation has gotten more efficient as wages have risen in China.

The prior ones on the 1700 and 1800s were soil technology revolutions that increased yields and displaced agricultural workers. There was also the first industrial revolution and the railroad bubble.

It's funny to see people pretend to be revolutionaries that then use the tools provided to them by the system they oppose to prove the system is wrong. Their support of the system is contradictionary to their statements.

You are twisted. I never argued against using technology. I am one of the biggest proponents of technology you will find.

If you want real change then the first thing to do is switch off the computer.
The next thing to do is figure out how you can get all these nice things without any statism.

As if the computer depends on statism  Roll Eyes What an idiot. You conflate orthogonal things.

LOL.,
Again with the brain twisting.
We have had technology to wipe out the whole world population for over a hundred years now.
There are chemicals that, once injected into the atmosphere, would kill almost all people.
So this could have been done even before the first world war, if that was the goal.

No dimwit. There are real people with real hearts (majors, corporals, etc) between those buttons and the world annihilation.

Also the statism can't overtly kill everyone and have any support. It must pretend to have good versus bad, so the people fall into their trap of wanting everything they want irrespective of cost.

Also nuclear winter won't kill everyone. The likely survivors would include many hard-core anti-government folk.

The thought that statism doesnt kill everyone because of inefficiency is truely bizar.

Learn to spell, bizarre.

The efficiency has to operate within conventional war, where the excuse (illusion) of good vs. bad can be maintained.

The megadeaths occur where the population is disarmed and the government has been given the arms.


What i can make of it is that you trust that some un-subvertable technologies will save your ass.

That was the proposition. Research revealed it isn't possible.

If you would indeed be an experienced programmer like you claim you are you would know by heart that there is no such thing as a system that cannot be subverted.

There are varying degrees of subversion. If all technology was fully subvertable, nothing would function. This is stupid generalization. We look at the specifics and come to a conclusion based on the facts, as I did.

It is a stupid proposition to hope that technology will save your ass.

It is the only thing that has saved mankind's ass, starting since at least the invention of tools and fire.

There is no 78 year technological disruption cycle.
If there are any cycles than they must be accelerating.

WRONG!

Read all comments above and below the linked chart:

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/#comment-21690

(wait for the page to load the specific comment down the page, which has an unformatted textual table of dates and technology disruptions and the wars caused by the unemployment due to technology disruptions)

If the comment doesn't scroll into view after clicking the above link, then search down the page for "armstrong" then look for the comment with the table.

Note that linked site is sometimes down due to overloaded server. Keep trying it. I will also try to find another copy of the information and provide a link in future post.

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AnonyMint (OP)
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May 13, 2013, 05:42:58 PM
Last edit: May 14, 2013, 06:06:44 AM by AnonyMint
 #242

The link in the prior post to the table of the 78 year cycle is superior because it has links to much background information, but that server is not loading right now (it will load at other times, keep trying).

Here is a synopsis version:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4824&cpage=1#comment-395999 (scroll to the end of the linked comment)

Some other links on this point:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Housing%20Recovery%20Illusion.html
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4867&cpage=1#comment-397370
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4927&cpage=1#comment-400320

You might be interested in this:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Shelby_H_Moore.html

Check out the accurate predictions on silver Oct 2010 and gold on March 4. Yeah that is me.

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May 13, 2013, 05:52:33 PM
Last edit: May 14, 2013, 06:09:31 AM by AnonyMint
 #243

Someone asking me if I was bailing out on investing in Bitcoin. Here was my reply.

I can't give advice because each person's situation is unique and because I can be wrong. I don't want to be responsible for the outcomes of others.

I don't think the flaws that I revealed in Bitcoin are going to affect the near-term outlook for speculators who are buying Bitcoin. Thus no impact on the near-term investment returns.

I will share with you what I am thinking for myself. First, I trust the following blog as having a good (not perfect) track record of understanding:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/

Second, although Bitcoin will probably be a positive returning investment, no one can say for sure when it is overvalued short-term, and there is much risk from not only volatility but also from unexpected government rulings which could be positive or negative.

Also much capital is shifting into Bitcoin because there is so much capital floating around looking for a positive return. When the next liquidity squeeze comes (anytime between 2014 and 2017), then risk assets may be the first to selloff. I would be selling into the Bitcoin rallies and using proceeds to buy the gold dips.

Core savings that can not afford to be lost should be in gold. Period. And probably waiting for a further dip in the gold price to bottom either in 2013 or to extend the decline out to 2015. Armstrong is watching for a close below $1310 for 2013 as a sign of potential decline through 2015. If not, we may have seen the bottom in 2013, probably another 10 - 25% (perhaps even 30% as a small risk) lower from current price.

Given gold is going to double, triple or more by the end game, buying it at any time for long-term hold is fine.

Short-term speculation rarely works out. You buy Bitcoin for a long-term hold if you really believe in it, then maybe sell a portion on every 50% - 100% increase in the price. But realize it is no where near as sure to not destroy your savings as gold is. Allocate accordingly.

Having said that, I am not allocating anything to Bitcoin, because it is too much of a hassle and stress and I don't expect my big gains in life to come from speculations, rather I expect them to come from my programming projects. I don't want to cause a risk to my savings that prevents me from being able to work on the projects that I want to work on, that have the best chance of generating outsized returns.

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May 13, 2013, 10:19:57 PM
 #244

THE LINK TO THE EVIDENCE OF 78 YEAR CYCLE IS AT THE END OF THIS POST. STUDY IT. YOU WILL BE SHOCKED AT YOUR IGNORANCE.


I've read it and it's selective mumbo jumbo.

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May 14, 2013, 12:16:30 AM
 #245

lol
a lot of fancy words
if the "cartel" wants to delay your tx ,   others will not and accept the tx    hardly a digital kill switch
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May 14, 2013, 03:18:53 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2013, 04:48:41 AM by AnonyMint
 #246

THE LINK TO THE EVIDENCE OF 78 YEAR CYCLE IS AT THE END OF THIS POST. STUDY IT. YOU WILL BE SHOCKED AT YOUR IGNORANCE.


I've read it and it's selective mumbo jumbo.



If you deny that the economic problems of Europe at turn of last century were caused by the unemployment due to loss of cottage industry to mass production, then go on in your fantasy world. The Case-Schiller housing price chart (for the USA) clearly shows that housing was abnormally cratered for a few decades due to this.

And this is repeating, this time it is due to the computer causing massive unemployment.

Note the more fundamental cause of Europe's problems have always been statism, as it funds (by stealing from production with taxes and sovereign debt) people to delay their adjustment to technological shift. The mathematical model here:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934&cpage=1#comment-401368

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AnonyMint (OP)
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May 14, 2013, 03:22:03 AM
 #247

lol
a lot of fancy words
if the "cartel" wants to delay your tx ,   others will not and accept the tx    hardly a digital kill switch

Nonsense from someone who doesn't have a grasp of the technical issues.

Without the concensus block being respected, there is no guarantee against double-spends.

Dude I have thought about these issues deeply. My IQ is well into the near genius range. Please stop wasting my time.

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May 14, 2013, 06:31:58 AM
 #248

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/13/gold-2015-75/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/13/welcome-to-the-new-international-currency-the-dollar/

What he is saying is that gold bulls are fighting the idea that the dollar is going to rise (dollar rise because Europe and Japan will crater first over next 2 years or so), thus the low in gold is protacted until the bulls finally capitulate.

He doesn't see the low pushing out past 2015.

To me, looks like we might get a low this summer, then a rally, then another capitulation later perhaps 2014, for a final low. Then start moving back up.

He reasons in the second link above, that gold won't blast off like a crazy rocket to all time highs until the dollar rally has ceased, which is after 2015.

There simply isn't any reason to be in a rush to buy now. The dollar must go up first or gold bugs have to anticipate it early and capitulate.

The break of support at $25 for silver, can't be over yet. There is always at least a deadcat bounce and a move lower.

Any way, I am not really trying to make money on my savings in PMs now. Just trying to manage my savings sanely, so I have cash when I need it, and I minimize chances of needing to sell at the bottom.

The goal is not to make money, but preserve capital.

Let's hope capital gain taxes are only 28% on gold by the time we well (for those in USA without retirement plan deferral protection). By the way, get everything out the retirement plan-- it is all going to be nationalized and confiscated.

Stop thinking about not reporting unless you are dealing entirely in cash with a broker who doesn't record your identity. Too risky. See if there are cameras. I don't advocate breaking the law.

I am thinking it is best to pay taxes. The best is to work and generate income.

Money is a hassle. Keeping life simple is best, use what you really need. Work on what is really interesting and doesn't consume your entire life. If it generates enough to sustain your simple life and all is contented. Well that is the hope, but not always easy to implement.

Disclaimer: I am not giving advice, consult your own professional. I am sharing some thoughts about my thinking only! Don't hold me responsible for anything you do!

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May 14, 2013, 07:22:05 AM
 #249

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2140631#msg2140631

But if we continue in theory, the attack is irrelevant because it can be identified long before the attackers would be able to hurt the honest SHs. If Walmart's cartel was controlling a large portion of consensus, everyone would know that Kmart's transaction verification is very slow. Kmart would not be wise to keep something hurting its business a secret.

I am more fearful of the coming world government (or the regional blocks under an umbrella of cooperation) providing a single currency and taking action only against individuals which refuse to provide their identity on all transactions. Most people agree with this. I don't think there will be consensus to stop it.

Let's stand back and assume that we can't stop the above outcome, rather we must embrace it. So how would we design a better Bitcoin that would be more popular (and more profitable for us) that people would accept more.

If we don't have to assume the government (or the fascist combo with corporations) is going to do evil we don't want, then our attack vulnerability is much decreased.

I now think it is entirely impossible (and undesirable) to create money that is not socialized. For the technical reasons upthread, but also for fundamental theoretical reasons that stored monetary (fungible) capital is the antithesis of knowledge production:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4946&cpage=1#comment-401510
http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.html

Society needs an efficient fungible digital currency that the world government can adopt. What is the best design?

If it doesn't have the capacity to be debased by society, it will be destroyed or replaced. Period. Human nature and statism won't change (not since 3000 years).

We protect ourselves individually by innovating knowledge production. Money is not the solution, just as statism is not the solution. They are the aspects of human nature we have to route around with our knowledge production.

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May 14, 2013, 07:34:46 AM
 #250

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2140843#msg2140843

What stops someone with fiat from buying Decrits and then buying shares (SHs)?

You can't know when a transaction was in exchange for fiat.

The mining design can't protect you from fiat.

This design is jumping through complex hoops to try to stop that which is natural-- the socialization of money.

The energy efficiency is the key magnificent feature of this design. No need to buy hardware, simply buy some shares and earn a profit. This would be popular.

Bad money drives good money out-of-circulation. Money is supposed to be bad. It is human nature.

You could radically simplify this design and make it popular, if stop trying to end human nature and socialization of money.

Just try to make it as attack proof as Bitcoin, but with advantages. Make it easier to implement.

Then we make it, get rich, and enjoy our lives.

We are not going to fix society-- leave that to a god.

We can continue to innovate knowledge, to uplift mankind. But money ain't it.

Well an efficient digital money will help a lot of people, just don't expect to fix all the ills of money with it.

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May 14, 2013, 12:11:23 PM
 #251

And this is repeating, this time it is due to the computer causing massive unemployment.

In my experience computers have generated more work than any industry ever.
Workers that use computers don't work less hours, they simply do more in a given time period.
Moreover, computers created completely new industries. People designing websites, people working as engineers, etc, etc, etc.
The jobs of CGI artist, programmer, website designer, system administrator, computer guru, security specialist, network engineer/administrator, electronics manufacturer, dance music producer, industrial designer, video editor, etc etc etc etc.

I think you forget about the fact that computers created lots and lots of jobs.
So to me it is much more a shift of employment.
Sure, a lot of jobs became useless. But at the same time lots of new possibilities for employment came into existance.

In fact, please provide figures that make it clear that the computer revolution (lets take the first intel cpu as a starting point, around 1970) reduced jobs and caused unemployment. Please make it so that it is clear that unemployment was caused by computers and not by other factors.
Maybe you can start by comparing unemployment rate with PC penetration, see what you get.

 Roll Eyes
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May 14, 2013, 12:20:57 PM
 #252

Dude I have thought about these issues deeply. My IQ is well into the near genius range. Please stop wasting my time.

People that need to tell others that they are smart usually try to hide the fact that they are not smart enough in their eyes...
Seing what you have writen on these forums makes me think that maybe you are smart, but not even close to being genius.
So stop sniffing your own farts. Your brain will be more healthy that way.
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May 14, 2013, 12:22:46 PM
 #253

I belive 500$ Is going to be the max over this 10 year period.

Why are you just staring at this? Just send it! 1MHZjADM41ttjbPUiTPYWGYGm45XLf8ZeS
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May 14, 2013, 12:23:08 PM
 #254

Nice bender
And this is repeating, this time it is due to the computer causing massive unemployment.

In my experience computers have generated more work than any industry ever.
Workers that use computers don't work less hours, they simply do more in a given time period.
Moreover, computers created completely new industries. People designing websites, people working as engineers, etc, etc, etc.
The jobs of CGI artist, programmer, website designer, system administrator, computer guru, security specialist, network engineer/administrator, electronics manufacturer, dance music producer, industrial designer, video editor, etc etc etc etc.

I think you forget about the fact that computers created lots and lots of jobs.
So to me it is much more a shift of employment.
Sure, a lot of jobs became useless. But at the same time lots of new possibilities for employment came into existance.

In fact, please provide figures that make it clear that the computer revolution (lets take the first intel cpu as a starting point, around 1970) reduced jobs and caused unemployment. Please make it so that it is clear that unemployment was caused by computers and not by other factors.
Maybe you can start by comparing unemployment rate with PC penetration, see what you get.

 Roll Eyes

Why are you just staring at this? Just send it! 1MHZjADM41ttjbPUiTPYWGYGm45XLf8ZeS
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May 14, 2013, 01:02:58 PM
 #255

I AM NOT BEING PAID TO CONVINCE YOU, AND I REALLY DON'T CARE. I WILL NOT PUT MORE EFFORT INTO CONVINCING YOU. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT.

And this is repeating, this time it is due to the computer causing massive unemployment.
So to me it is much more a shift of employment.
Sure, a lot of jobs became useless. But at the same time lots of new possibilities for employment came into existance.

And I already stated that upthread:

P.S. If you read more carefully, I never said humans are obsolete. I said the statism helps many of them delay adjustment and education. The Singularity is hogwash, the humans will always do the creative work.



In fact, please provide figures that make it clear that the computer revolution (lets take the first intel cpu as a starting point, around 1970) reduced jobs and caused unemployment. Please make it so that it is clear that unemployment was caused by computers and not by other factors.
Maybe you can start by comparing unemployment rate with PC penetration, see what you get.

Are you denying that mass production destroyed cottage industry and caused massive unemployment during the first 1/3 of the 1900s?

If not, then please realize that didn't happen until the network effects kicked in from the 1st and 2nd industrial revolutions.

The network effects from the computer revolution are accelerating now.

Examples, 3D printing, completely automated distribution warehouses, voice recognition customer support bots, open source, the internet, Etc..

The unemployed in the USA were in manufacturing, paperwork, customer support, real estate related, etc.. The real estate bubble was the statist delay of adjustment (and expanding government with Fannie and Ginnie Mae, etc), by lowering interest rates to keep the economy growing while the other listed jobs were being lost.

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May 14, 2013, 01:19:38 PM
 #256

Some links on the technology disruption going on now:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/the-mystery-of-the-incredible-shrinking-american-worker/273033/
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50138922n
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/fed-cannot-win-fight-against-robots
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4817&cpage=1#comment-395423
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/02/3d-printed-car/
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/we-are-witnessing-the-slow-tortuous-death-of-the-american-worker
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/148220-ibm-makes-watson-the-size-of-a-pizza-box-starts-offering-cloud-access-to-doctors
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/07/the-jobless-recovery/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39495.html

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mobodick
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May 14, 2013, 02:35:02 PM
 #257


OMG so many scary stories.
You must be a GENIUS!

You link to whiners that whine about workers disappearing in the US.
Well guess what! The Chinese have your work now! Cheap chinese labor is the real disruptive force. China as an economic power is a disruptive force (as has been predicted for decenia).
Funny how you didn't notice this but instead blame computers for it. Thu tukkin mu jub!
Whine some more and maybe the chinese will employ you... if you are willing to work as hard as they do for the same wage.

Most of the US labour that disappeared in recent years is now in chinese hands.
China owns the US. It has nothing to do with computers taking over.
US sold its ass and now it has nothing to sit with.
If anything then technology and computers are the only thing preventing the complete downfall of the US.
Remove hollywood, silicon valley and some other key technology players and the US becomes a husk hollowed out by years of canibalism.
Aineko
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May 14, 2013, 06:37:40 PM
 #258

lol
a lot of fancy words
if the "cartel" wants to delay your tx ,   others will not and accept the tx    hardly a digital kill switch

Nonsense from someone who doesn't have a grasp of the technical issues.

Without the concensus block being respected, there is no guarantee against double-spends.

Dude I have thought about these issues deeply. My IQ is well into the near genius range. Please stop wasting my time.


Ok, explain the technical issue then.  I'm very interested, especially the concensus block.
I don't question your intellectual capabilities.  Your IQ can be up there, your ego clearly is.

mobodick
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May 14, 2013, 07:40:05 PM
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In fact, please provide figures that make it clear that the computer revolution (lets take the first intel cpu as a starting point, around 1970) reduced jobs and caused unemployment. Please make it so that it is clear that unemployment was caused by computers and not by other factors.
Maybe you can start by comparing unemployment rate with PC penetration, see what you get.

Are you denying that mass production destroyed cottage industry and caused massive unemployment during the first 1/3 of the 1900s?


No, but mass production created incredible amounts of opportunities for people.
The automobile was not produced by cottage industry.
Note how much the world advanced due to automobiles.

Still no figures? Thought so.

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May 14, 2013, 08:39:13 PM
 #260

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

by Shelby H. Moore III

March 29, 2013

Bitcoin is the first peer-to-peer (P2P) digital currency and payment system to gain significant interest. This month its marketcap surpassed $1 billion.

P2P currencies promise some differences from credit cards, such as increased privacy, no control by authorities, instant signup, lower fees for the merchant, and no chargebacks (buyer at the mercy of the merchant to issue refund if dispute).

Unlike a credit card which allows the merchant to see your details, making unauthorized charges to your P2P account is impossible, unless you allow someone to get your private key. Note credit cards are adding for example Verified By Visa to provide a similar degree of security.

The government control increased on March 13, when FinCEN ruled that transactions for goods and services paying with P2P currency are not regulated, yet exchange to other currencies is regulated and can't be anonymous. Since most users need to exchange from legal tender to and from P2P currencies, some of the purported privacy has already been lost. Also instant signup has been effectively eliminated for many, as now many new users must "practically give a DNA sample" to become verified by exchange providers— however this tsuris may not exist in all jurisdictions.

The anonymity of payments for goods and services is given by the fact that each sender and receiver of a payment is just a number without any other identifying information attached. New numbers can be generated by users at-will. However, the authorities regularly collect information from the internet about usage activity using various means of tracking such as man-in-the-middle routers, spyware, and requests for information from sites that collect information via cookies such as Google's ads and Facebook's Like that appear on many pages of the internet.

So what are the compelling advantages of P2P currencies, since most of the differences from credit cards are being diluted?

For merchants it is the elimination of the 2 - 5% fees charged by credit card companies, the elimination of the ability of the buyer to issue a chargeback, and accessing a new market of highly motivated buyers. In some cases however, the buyer will not like this "no chargeback" provision and prefer to use a credit card.

For the buyer or payer, there appear to be no remaining significant advantages. Even most merchants don't accept P2P currencies yet. The non-merchant has one significant reason to buy digital coins— the expectation of appreciation.

Valuation

The supporters of Bitcoin are projecting very high valuations ranging from $1000 to $1 billion per coin in the future, based on a limit of 21 million coins to ever be created, and a projection of percentage share of global transaction processing.

Notably 50% of Bitcoin's future money supply was issued to the founders and early adopters in first 4 years ended 2012, and by 2016, 75% of the 21 million coins will have been created. By 2020, 87.5%. By 2024, 93.75%. By 2028, 97%.

This accelerated phaseout in the creation of new coins is creating a mad "gold rush" to get in before it is too late. Even though at least 59% (but most likely 75 - 95% since that is only a lower bound that can be measured reliably) are holding long-term and not spending, the skyhigh valuations are based on the hope for adoption by merchants and then increased spending on goods and services in the future.

The 21 million Bitcoins are replacement goods with low barriers to entry and thus can be debased by market share. If competing P2P currencies issue many more coins, then the total finite demand for P2P coins has to be spread between the coins in all P2P currency competitors. However, this spread of market share is not uniform. Today, Bitcoins traded at $75 - $95 with 10.8 million coins issued and Litecoins traded at $0.58 - $0.68 with 2.5 million coins issued. Given real-time exchange between P2P currencies, there is nearly no barrier-to-entry, since merchants will want to accept as many no chargeback currencies as they can if value is rising or stable. Also Gresham's Law dictates that coins will higher issuance will drive coins with less issuance out-of-circulation towards a higher store-of-value. Valuations are also crucially based on market share of transaction processing to be captured in the future, which requires circulation of the currency. So it is quite naive to think that the 21 million coins of Bitcoins are immune to debasement by competitors, unless all competitors suck and have no desirable differences.

Much of the fervor is further amplified with a false sense of altruism under the delusion of being part of a momentus and historic creation of what supporters expect to be the first meritocratic money system— one which can't be debased by the power elite who control the strings on banks in the fiat fractional reserve systems society uses now.

Scaling

For Bitcoin to meet the expectation of investors in its digital coins, the transactions for goods and services has to scale up.

And here is where the hidden diabolical quality of Bitcoin (and Litecoin too) becomes too obvious when the technical details of the design are closely scruntinized by an expert programmer such as myself.

The processing of transactions in P2P currencies is provided by "mining" peers, who provide some Proof-of-Work to insure that double-spends can not exist in the single correct copy of the distributed database. These peers are computers connected to the internet and interacting in a protocol with the other "mining" peers.

To incentivize the "mining" peers to offer their hardware and electricity to this task, they are given the new digital coins created with each new block of transactions. Also they may be offered an optional transaction fee by some payers.

However, the rate of creation of new coins is halving every 4 years, and will eventually stop. Given the fervor the supporters have over non-debasement for meritocratic money system, the end of the creation of new coins is "non-negotiable".

If an attacker can muster 51% of the Proof-of-Work capacity of a P2P system, the attacker can take over the system. There are differences of opinion as to the degree of malicious behavior an attacker could do. However, one unarguable mathematical conclusion is that an attacker that had for example 60 to 90% of the Proof-of-Work capacity could process 60 to 90% of the transactions. If this attacker did not do any thing noticably malicious and did not charge a transaction fee, then virtually all customers would not find it necessary to offer a transaction fee, because over just 3 blocks of waiting time the 60 to 90% becomes 94 to 99.9% of all transactions.* If this was sustained for sufficient months or years when the production of new coins had ended (or declined significantly), then all the other miners would go bankrupt because their costs are not subsidized. Such attacker would then control virtually 100% of all transactions processed. Note this 60 - 90% could be built up over time, because offering free transactions to a percent of the market (when no new coins are being minted), drives some percent of the other miners bankrupt thus increasing the percent the attacker has— it is a snowball effect.

This was explained to some of the developers of Bitcoin who hang out at bitcoin.stackexchange.com, but they claimed it is only an opinion and not a fact. How can math be an opinion?

*First block, 60 to 90% + second block 60 x (100 - 60) to 90 x (100 - 90)% + third block 60 x (100 - 84) to 90 x (100 - 99).

Digital Kill Switch

There is an expectation that large retailers such as WalMart, Amazon, etc., will want to provide the "mining" peers at no transaction fee cost to the buyers, so as to gain a competitive advantage over other retailers.

But we see from the prior section that the incentive is very great to create a cartel that has control over all transactions. Once you have that cartel, you can eliminate those outside the cartel by delaying their transactions or charging transaction fees only to your competitors (billing the competitor, not deducting from the payer in the system). So this is just the credit card fees we have now all over again, except then they will also have a public global record of all transactions in the world (total end of privacy).

Then the government could easily collude with these cartels to turn off the transactions of political dissidents, free speech advocates, gun rights advocates, Ron Paul supporters, and any other classification of terrorist. With control over the processing and the merchants who depend on it, they can easily force an upgrade to the protocol which requires a SSN or other government tax ID to be attached to each transaction.

This is not a stretch at all. The design of Bitcoin and Litecoin encourages it— I go so far as to say they were designed for it given there are alternative designs (I proposed one) that don't have this diabolical possibility.

Having numerous competing P2P currencies does not escape from this diabolical threat, if all of them have the same diabolical design. A non-diabolical design would either have debasement that never ends and/or a minimum transaction fee.

I doubt one can create a non-diabolical P2P currency at any time in future, because the first-mover advantage will apply inspite of low barriers to entry. Because if the users already have Bitcoin and Litecoin, they may not see any compelling reason to add another, in spite of the diabolical quality which does not affect them directly (as a member of the majorty and not a dissidant or other threatened class).

Not Gold

The P2P currency fervor was further stoked by the illusion that they are somewhat like gold. Gold is a private hedge against government malfeasance, it can be traded privately with no public record. P2P currency ownership and transactions are stored in one public database that is never erased forever!

Gold's money supply is always increasing forever (we can mine it in outer space if we run out on earth) and the rate of nominal increase every year is also increasing. Bitcoin and Litecoin are geometrically decreasing the rate of increase of the money supply and will terminate production of new coins at 21 and 84 million respectively. Some people think this makes them even better than gold and silver.

Many people have the illusion these days that inflation is bad and deflation is good. Sorry to bust their bubble, but both transfer wealth to the power elite. The power elite have more savings relative to their expenses, thus they can switch their savings between investments which increase during both inflation and deflation. Whereas, the middle-class are hurt by inflation since they must spend more their income, and they are hurt by deflation, because their wages decline.

If distributed to the middle-class, some minimal debasement is beneficial to offset the guaranteed (government backed stopped) usury interest income the wealthy earn during deflation. I am not a socialist and I love free markets, but the fact is that money is a social collective institution and this is the reality of the math. Either you redistribute algorithmically with debasement and mining of new coins, or you redistribute with taxes and politics. I would much prefer the former.

It is possible to make a P2P currency that more closely emulates gold's money supply. And has the advantage that no one controls its rate of debasement and thus can't manipulate it to create false business cycles.
Very interesting, thanks a lot.
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