Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

[AnonyMint]

NY bankers are preparing for a total wipeout of private capital:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226033.msg2441785#msg2441785

[AnonyMint]

My original reason for stopping all work on my Proof-of-Hard Disk idea was correct, and all forms of Proof-of-Consensus won't work for that same reason:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2448142#msg2448142

Long live Satoshi's Proof-of-Work.

I am almost ready to abandon any work on cryptocurrencies. They appear to not be a solution to anything:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2129228#msg2129228

Sorry to say. I am awaiting any refutation.

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4944&cpage=1#comment-401419

@Foo:

(f) the incessant bitcoin questions

I seem to have come to the conclusion that cryptocurrencies do not appear to create anarcho-capitalism. The problem is there appears to be no way to design one that can not be controlled by statism, not even by those who wish to disobey the laws and rely on sophisticated anonymity. The inability to inject non-centralized entropy (in any alternative that can't be controlled by a majority of capital) is a fundamental realization, assuming my conclusion is not refuted.

I like to abandon unworkable ideas as soon as possible.

[herzmeister]

so Marx was right after all huh 

[AnonyMint]

Per my prior post, Proof-of-Consensus is a dead-end.

We could still look to improve critical flaws in Bitcoin while employing a Proof-of-Work system:

• Eliminate the 10 min delay by offering the option for spender to place some funds in escrow as a guarantee against double-spend, and escrowed money is forfeited to the ether if there is a double-spend.
• Eliminate Bitcoin's declining debasement schedule so there is funding from minting forever
• Add tx fees to incentivize peers to include more transactions in their TBs
• Consider a Litecoin-like Proof-of-Work that disfavors ASICs
• Improve anonymity as we discussed in this thread

I am liking my domain name autonomoney.com because the greatest thing about decentralized currency is that no centralized authority controls who can become a spender and a merchant and there is instant signup with no approvals needed.

We need minting so any one can go earn some coins with capital while sidestepping anti-money laundering laws. We need that minting to not stop in 2034 when the 78 cycle predicts this current global crisis to bottom.

Any interest?

[AnonyMint]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/11/mailing-cash-is-prohibited-in-usa-france-bars-even-gold/

Is this not enough reason for a decentralized digital currency and especially that everyone can mint on their own to obtain some without going through id checks of the anti-money laundering laws.

See my reply in the other thread about possible improvements we can make to Bitcoin:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2448776#msg2448776

[bitcoinbuddy]

Anonymint is a little paranoid. Many holes and assumptions.
 

[AnonyMint]

Anonymint is a little paranoid. Many holes and assumptions.

Care you sling some detailed instances of "holes and assumptions" to back up your slander? I can't refute content-free personal opinions, thus they are meaningless in the context of debate and search for truth.

Also distinguish between when I presented something as unarguable fact, versus arguments I have offered along with evidence for the reader to consider.

[bitcoinbuddy]

I'm not a counselor or fact checker and I have no interest in listing the things you got wrong/assumed/didn't-take-into-account. The tone of your original post speaks for itself as well as your overreactions to comments on said post. You obviously just want to start a new currency but feel the need to justify it somehow. You're way too late to the game, many others have already done it with varying success but it will probably be litecoin that fares the best of the *ahem* lesser crypto-currencies. Good luck all the same.

[AnonyMint]

I'm not a counselor or fact checker and I have no interest in listing the things you got wrong/assumed/didn't-take-into-account.

You don't check facts, yet you claim I made mistakes. Illogical.

The tone of your original post speaks for itself as well as your overreactions to comments on said post.

So there we have it. Your emotions were offended. Sorry babe. Seems like I had this sort of discussion with a female yesterday about lettings one's emotions take control over your logical mind.

You obviously just want to start a new currency but feel the need to justify it somehow.

Typical assumptions of someone projecting their emotional insecurity.

How it is obvious that I want to start a new currency when I have said that my Proof-of-hard disk idea won't work. Hmmm. Logic is obviously not in play here.

You're way too late to the game,

I have also said the same in numerous posts.

But so was Android and it has come from nothing and way behind to trounce iOS:

http://www.catb.org/~esr/comscore/

many others have already done it with varying success but it will probably be litecoin that fares the best of the *ahem* lesser crypto-currencies.

Litecoin has Scrypt Proof-of-Work which is superior:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189239.msg2455079#msg2455079

But it lacks the most important aspect of leveraging that move level playing field for minting-- greater and perpetually sustained debasement.

Good luck all the same.

Must be a tormenting mental condition to have such convoluted emotions, that you roll your eyes after sending well wishes.

[AnonyMint]

Just sent this out for publishing on the internet. You should find it by searching the title "Asia Rising, West Declining" with Google within a day or so.

Asia Rising, West Declining

Asia will lead out of the coming global economic collapse because the Heritage Foundation data states the government spending as a percentage of the economy is significantly lower than in the West.

http://www.heritage.org/index/explore

Latin America's low government spending population is (sans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Venezuela) only 320 million-- much smaller than Asia's.

Thus despite rampant oligarchy collusion with government (e.g. Chinese SOEs, Korean Chaebols), the Asian population is not addicted to government spending. This is critical because we have to consider the different ways societies can adjust to a debt and misallocation crisis.

Societies which have nearing retirement age bulges in their population pyramids and thus high levels of social spending, are not able to write-down the capital stock and reallocate it to more efficient users. Instead of quickly defaulting on the political owners (the lenders) and the synergistic political majority boomer parasites, such decaying societies must do austerity on the youth (see high youth unemployment in southern Europe) and confiscate (ZIRP and "bail-ins") from the savers. At the bottom, this failed direction rations the retirements. Armstrong's (and my) 78 year cycle model says the West bottoms 2033 which is 26 years after the decline began in 2007, i.e. a lost generation. Japan is the perennial example, with Europe and the U.S.A. following on cue. These vested interests (lenders and boomers) throw support to all draconian measures which can maintain this stasis. Some examples include the G20 starting to call for hunting down wealth globally, France imposing wealth taxes and capital controls, and the NSA saving all communications so as to know where all wealth is being hidden (terrorists know how to use encryption and Tor, most savers don't). Note Japan's lost generation is almost complete and is nearing the final capitulation and bottoming phase.

Whereas, societies which are not burdened by this vested interest addicted to government spending, can "throw the bums out" and default on the lenders, to get capital flowing again to the efficient private sector.

The developing world (sans China) is becoming short the dollar with dollar bond issues and loans flooding fixed capital speculation and misallocation, thus will have a liquidity crisis when the dollar strengthens as the wheels fall off of Europe first and export (goods and services) income caters. China also has huge debts and imbalances as documented by Michael Pettis et al. Yet what remains after this coming chaos, is Asia a place of relative freedom and the West burdened by politics of wealth redistribution and the police states with breakdown of rule of law that accompany such. Private capital and innovation will leave for where it won't be attacked. China censors the internet, yet the NSA saves everything. The former is transparent to the people and readily subverted by them, the latter is hidden from the people and implicitly supported by the politics of wealth redistribution.

[msdrahcir]

There's also the question if it's worth to start mining it in outer space…

Solar powered bitcoin

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged, and I rebutted as follows.

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-23978

I am writing from the perspective of social capital & trajectory, since I am projecting the future.

When the rule of law is itself corrupted by the demands of boomers to maintain what can't be maintained, thus handing control of the government to the bankers who will never write-down the capital stock, then the rule of law is an illusion that is already rotten inside and waiting for the Minsky moment.

Whereas, China's people are becoming increasingly vocal about corruption and their actions are increasingly capitalistic. I was told by a Chinese recently that it is perfectly okay to criticize the government, just don't organize into groups when doing so. The only practical limit is to not challenge the actual authority by organizing. Whereas in the West, it is becoming increasingly politically incorrect to criticize the government. In the USA, there are even laws and Homeland security policies that characterize a person as a terrorist if they belong to certain ideologies.

China is liberalizing their financial door slowly, while the West is closing it, now with capital controls increasing.

Absolutely not, the Chinese criticize socialism and praise capitalism. Whereas, Westerners criticize capitalism (Obama!, ZIRP, bailins, etc) and embrace socialism.

I can't imagine how you could be so blind. Oh wait, yes I can. You are Westerner, so you believe this propaganda you've been fed about your social capital being superior to China.

No you've gotten it backwards. Not having welfare in place, means the free market and private capital is more free to invest and innovate. Two more phenomenal decades of this private enterprise will provide the funding for the social programs China needs 20 years from now.

Chinese readily subvert the censorship on the internet, using varied techniques such as misusing words so their meaning is obscured. A few VPNs of input, can be spread out by forum posts and word-of-mouth.

I didn't say China has better respect for privacy NOW, I said that their control is not opaque and the citizens are not living in a fantasy world believing they have privacy. Thus they've been having a dialogue about it, and are well along the way towards being ready to dismantled it when the Minsky moment comes. Whereas the West is in denial thinking they are good, but actually rotten to the core of their social capital needs. And when the Minsky moment comes, the West is going devolve into what it really is behind the curtain.

How much you want to bet that the USA public eventually forgets the recent NSA infocalypse, and the behind-the-curtain abuses increase? Whereas, the Chinese are not going to forget until they obtain the freedom to capitalize freely.

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged again and rebutted again. See link in prior post for link to discussion.

============

Andao, did you ignore that I specifically said I am looking for evidence not comparing what is NOW, but the trajectory of where we are going in the FUTURE?

My main point of evidence is that in the West we can act as if we are free and most believe they are, but we are being secretly recorded, as proved by the recent infocalypse revealed by Edward Snowden (with numerous others providing similar leaks since 2001).

Whereas in China, the people know very well they are not entirely free, and they know they are being blocked and recorded.

The other evidence I offered is the fact that the West can not have unsocialized debts defaultss without destroying the retirement of the majority of the voters. Whereas, China can. Thus the West can not move away from socialism, China can. Thus the West is lying to itself about moving towards socialism, and China is not lying about moving away from socialism.

The opposing trajectories over the past 3 decades are clear and accelerating. China has opened from 100% totalitarianism to 50+% capitalism. The West has slid from capitalism to socialism and fascism underneath, and only capitalism on the face. Does ZIRP, bail-ins, significant proportion on the population on government support, union control of Europe, etc. not sufficient evidence for you?

I am rushed now, if you want to rebut, I can try to compose a stronger counter argument next time.

[philipkdick]

Re: Can the government shut down BitCoin?

Yes...

I know the standard answer... - the government can't do nothing about BitCoin, it's a peer-2-peer thing, and it shall survive just like bit-torrent survived no matter what, and they will have to shut the internet in order to shut down bitcoin....

You are expecting the less likely threat, because the power elite don't shutdown what is popular, they find a way to own it.

The bigger threat is the government will not shut it down, but rather embrace, help it grow, and control it so they can turn off your ability to eat individually if they don't like you:

Bitcoin: The Digital Kill Switch

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160612.0

Bitcoin is diabolical, but only an expert can see it.

Hi you might want to call me an "expert" and I completely agree with most of the statements in the  topic, but  however I think you  are giving too much credit to government agencies , They can and will be quite efficient ,  but  not generally before the fact , you seem to be inclined to believe that bitcoin , was a "strawman" system , yet there is evidence of the most basic type against that , but then in other ways that " evidence" could be seen as  planted .

But that aside , let's instead look at results .

The result amoung other things of  the "bitcoin" effect is that there seems to be an evolution that has kicked into gear , and also with that , literally the unpredictable affection of run on multidimensional information.

An economy has grown on its own , and disconnected itself from bitcoin.

That is happening every day .

Now remember I said I was an expert ?

You will likely say that all other cryptocurrency is priced back to BTC , so it's now a quasi " reserve" for these other cryptocurrency.

So goes bitcoin so goes cryptocurrency ?  I really  very much doubt that ,  the power that any  " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve  currency that  seems to  have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises  they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

I like the objective of your essay , but you  give too much credibility  to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite "

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay  but it's not a complex  effect , and simple to explain .

[philipkdick]

End of factories (and human-labor for them):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=q9t68cMAPgA

Sorry to say, but i was a bit disappointed by this guy.
He royally underestimates the disruptive power of the technology he describes.
The 'razor and holder' model will be useless for 3D printers. It is already eating itself up as 3D printers are becoming more capable of replicating teir own parts. Even better, these desigs are open open source.
This guy just doesn't see the real potential of 3D printers and the way the world will be changed by them. He clearly does not get the concept that these devices are being designed for the specific purpose of replicating themselfs. Once that is done there will only be a thin layer of opportunity to make money from it and you will be competeing with the biggest open source community ever.

Don't 100 %  agree  but +1

[AnonyMint]

I was challenged again and rebutted again. See link in prior post for link to discussion.

Andao,

I have a moment to compose a hopefully more cogent rebuttal. This will continue on from the rebuttal I submitted a couple of hours ago.

I am wondering if you don't read carefully, or if I don't write coherently. For example, I wrote previously that Chinese are allowed to speak against the government, e.g. making a comment in a social network (if it is not censored) or at home, but they are not allowed to organize or become activists. Let me make it more clear. Chinese are allowed to express their personal opinion, but not allowed to form movements that threaten the power of the Communist Party (which I stated already in my prior comment to which you are replying).

In the West we are allowed to talk and organize politically, but this is pointless as the politics is already determined by the fact that the majority of voters are boomers and they will not tolerate a quick and sharp economic collapse the accompanies the defaults from write-down of the debt. But as Michael explained in an upthread comment about Japan, not writing-down the debt (i.e. not defaulting on the lenders) means a long-drawn out period of economic stagnation and decline (23 years thus far in Japan). Without a write-down, the capital stays locked up in interest payments and centralized amongst those who have proven they don't know how to allocate capital. Thus capital does not move to the most efficient, and thus the economy stagnates and declines.

I hope you understand that ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) causes capital to accumulate in the least risky sovereign bonds (e.g. USA, Germany) for safety, as well to speculation and emerging markets to seek yield. Thus ZIRP drives capital away from productive investment to bubbles. Precisely now we have huge dollar bond issues in developing countries funding a bubble in condos and fixed capital infrastructure. This means the developing world is short the dollar, as a Michael's past blog on globalization predicts, this capital inflow will reverse when the Minsky moment hits the West. In fact, you will see a huge rise in the dollar soon through 2016, as capital flees Europe (since Europe is moving rapidly towards capital controls and bail-in form of confiscation). Armstrong had predicted this and this is why we all (following Armstrong) had the knowledge to sell gold before the recent crash of gold.

This is a dead-cat bounce for the dollar and US real estate, being driven by capital in flows some of which is seeking a safe haven and then speculators seeing the trend and following it to chase yield.

Also potential home buyers in the USA are rushing to buy as interest rates rise (California house prices up +25% in past months), because the Fed sees the bubble forming and is talking about tapering down on QE. Armstrong predicted this too, so I was expecting it.

...this will be continued in the next comment...


...continuing from  prior comment...

Indeed the western media appeases the rage of the citizens with talk, but the action is all increasingly socialism. In my prior reply, I forgot to mention France already imposing capital controls and chasing away business with severe taxes and "do not fire" labor laws & regulations, and in the USA we have Obamacare which is destroying business. I already mention ZIRP which is a socialization of debt instead of a write-down of the lenders.

Whereas, China doesn't allow organization of dissent, and the reason is because the real economy is moving more and more capitalist and so there is no political vested interest that can hold up the Communist Party once the wildfire is lit. Thus they must prevent the spark, but the Minsky moment will provide that spark and then it will be dismantled rapidly. Whereas the West politically and economically can't reform because of the demographics can not allow it. Thus the West will devolve into a horrific outcome of wealth confiscation when the Minsky moment occurs (roughly circa 2016).

The privatization and discovery of information will spread very quickly in China after the Minsky moment because there is nothing stopping it other than the Chinese military. The people are young and will adapt quickly because in reality they are moving more to capitalism and back to their core values of Confucianism every day.

[AnonyMint]

Andao, finally got back to my desktop computer where I can type properly.

You cited the arrest of some activists in China and made the conclusion that this is not a "big improvement". How can you ignore the progress China has made on moving away from the totalitarianism of the cultural revolution, Great Leap forward, and the Tiananmen Square, to the widespread capitalism and freedom today? Of course, there are still some serious obstacles, but to argue there has been no big improvement is absurd.

Also that there exists activists who were emboldened by hope generated by the Premiere's policy statements, and that they were not immediately shot, is another indicator of how far China has come. China appears to be in the mode now of increasing tolerance, while maintaining suppression of a political spark that could send the whole thing spiraling out-of-control. I don't expect the leadership to succeed in a gradual transition from the remnants of communism to more free markets, because this last step (towards greater consumer share of the economy and foreign exchange freedom-of-capital for the middle class) requires removing the power of the 200 families that rule China. So unless there can be found a way for these 200 to continue to concentrate wealth and power, and open the economy more, then eventually there will be a Minsky moment, and another step forward in change similar to Tiananmen Square. Transitions occur in stages, as the economics and demographics overpower the stasis.

I think we need to consider the Asian culture of "face" when separating what the people on the street say when quoted, and what they actually do. Sure they play the "who you know" political favors game, because for now that is one of the primary means to do capitalism and succeed within the system which is still held back by the power of the Communist Party. But underlying this, the thoughts of the people are more Confucianist than Communist, and they want capitalism in their business activities. My perception is they want socialism to the extent that it creates a level playing field for eliminating evils of society. Since socialism does exactly the opposite due to the Olsen effect, then as the next economic crisis hits, they will grow more and more aware of their closer attachment to Confuscianism over a failed communist ideology which serves no purpose in their daily business lives as they strive to maximize wealth and security within their Confucianist core value system.

Their result will be different than the Europe or the USA to the extent their core culture is different (from Christianity, and the western culture of always moving forward man can improve upon nature versus Asian culture of cycles and repeating wisdom with nature in control).

The key point is that when the Minsky moment comes China won't have a majority of the population over 60 and unable to do anything but demand the government sequester wealth to sustain them. China will have a majority of the population in the 20 and 40 age brackets, thus able to roll up their sleeves and refocus energies on new markets after the fixed capital investment bubble has burst. And the rest of Asia is in proximity with the majority of the population in the working age 20s bracket.

Whereas the west is now burdened by the result of massive use of birth control and the bulge in births due to returning soldiers from World War 2, thus now not having sufficient youth to vote out the stasis of sequesting wealth from savers and transferring it to maintaining the increasing debt.

The freedom that westerners have is very fragile, because it only exists to the extent is does not conflict with the need of the boomers to sequester wealth to maintain their quality of life. In southern Europe, we see the youth unemployment is double the adults, as the boomers vote to sustain the debts and minimize effects on themselves.

[AnonyMint]

the power that any  " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

I already wrote the same in No Money Exists Without the Majority:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226033

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve  currency that  seems to  have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises  they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

Indeed there will be a massive confiscation of wealth in the west as I explained in the prior several posts.

Some of that wealth will escape into precious metals and autonomous digital currencies.

If that is significant enough, i.e. if most of the remaining real savings is in autonomous digital currencies, the government will embrace it and co-opt it to the extent they technically can. I am not saying that will necessarily be the case.

I like the objective of your essay , but you  give too much credibility  to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay  but it's not a complex  effect , and simple to explain .

As my prior few posts explained, I give credibility to demographics. Let me quote myself from another blog:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4955&cpage=1#comment-403445

> … the International Plot to take away our Vital Bodily Fluids!

The plot is demographic politics and opaque denial of the impossibility of perpetual motion.

[AnonyMint]

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/06/10/how-much-investment-is-optimal/#comment-24051

illumined,

It is very difficult to make the depositors whole, because this is a highly leveraged fractional reserve system (e.g. I've read the Spanish banks are leveraged 26-to-1), and worse yet there are all these up to a $quadrillion of sovereign bond interest rate derivatives gambling bets effectively used as reserves (since Tier 1 capital are sovereign bonds), thus leveraging the western financial system into the stratosphere.

We have to hit the reset button on the entire western financial system. There are two ways to do this. The slow way which allows increasing the debt and continuing to misallocate capital. Or the fast way of declaring everything 0, and recapitalizing a new system.

So far, Japan and the west have chosen the slow way of continuing interest payments and ZIRP to keep the derivatives whole, with Japan in a 23 year decline.  If the West continues down the slow way, it will be a global contagion. The west must continue down the slow way, because the boomers are too old to gain from a quick reset, they would not be competitive with Asia given a lack of youth in the west.

Asia will break away and do its own quicker reset once this global contagion takes down global exports. Japan is 3 years from the 26 year downturn bottom expected by the repeating 78 year cycle.

[philipkdick]

the power that any  " elite" as you call them hold is in relation to the faith of the system of wealth they hold that in, here is your fundamental flaw in the topic .

I already wrote the same in No Money Exists Without the Majority:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226033

So the pool of the world's " wealth" is caught up in now a reserve  currency that  seems to  have as large or larger credibility issue than bitcoin.

The idea that there will be a " switch" I think is novel funny , and impossible , if/when the USD loses reserve status , the last thing on the governments mind will be bitcoin. ! The governments will be barely functioning , think Russia 90.

And in effect society is seeing a slow motion version of this occur , so it's happening , bitcoin and I believe all other crypto currency of respect will be lifted by this " rising tide " as the wealth of the world realises  they actually have no wealth , or much less than they thought .

This effect is a transfer of wealth., it has happened many times in history , so in summary .

Indeed there will be a massive confiscation of wealth in the west as I explained in the prior several posts.

Some of that wealth will escape into precious metals and autonomous digital currencies.

If that is significant enough, i.e. if most of the remaining real savings is in autonomous digital currencies, the government will embrace it and co-opt it to the extent they technically can. I am not saying that will necessarily be the case.

I like the objective of your essay , but you  give too much credibility  to

- governments
- government agencis
- the "power elite

But to explain exactly why , I'd have to write my own essay  but it's not a complex  effect , and simple to explain .

As my prior few posts explained, I give credibility to demographics. Let me quote myself from another blog:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4955&cpage=1#comment-403445

> … the International Plot to take away our Vital Bodily Fluids!

The plot is demographic politics and opaque denial of the impossibility of perpetual motion.

Then the differences of opinion that you and I have are fairly minor .

You seem to understand economics , congrats , and I mean that , most people can not.

This is mostly due to their information environment.