My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;))

[olcaytu2005]

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

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[sandiman]

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

Market makers have nothing to do with pumper, otherwise we'll have a conflict of interest

[tokeweed]

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months.  It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

XRP is probably one of the best looking TA chart in Polo :



We broke an important resistance in mid september but could not hold above 1450 ish, now the most important resistance.

the old resistance at 1100 ish became support, and we consolidate here in a trading range after the break out. Once we got fuel back, market tried to break again 1450 ish but could not hold above it. We may be forming a trading range between the old resistance which became support and 1450 ish.

Ps: notice the sign of accumulation since june that are very bullish (nonetheless, one could argue last pump attempt saw a bit of distribution, which could go with the hypothesis that we could be forming a new trading range).

Thanks for sharing your chart and analysis.  I made a small buy in XRP after seeing it and I made other lower bids in case I could get in cheaper. 

Keep the charts and analysis coming.  It would be nice to have more people post their thought process so that we could learn from each other.

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

Market makers have nothing to do with pumper, otherwise we'll have a conflict of interest

Yup the market makers don't really care at what direction the market goes as they can make some profit either way.  The whales, the pumpers and the insiders are the ones to look out for but the problem is how.

[owaisted]

Great initiative. As for someone new, can you share greater light on your technical analysis. And if possible, send the noob in direction towards better TA. What I am asking is how can I learn TA for my self. I have tried youtube but the information is so scattered.

[tokeweed]

Great initiative. As for someone new, can you share greater light on your technical analysis. And if possible, send the noob in direction towards better TA. What I am asking is how can I learn TA for my self. I have tried youtube but the information is so scattered.

My advice would be to dive in and actually trade with real money and in a live setting.  Since you have already watched videos and I assume have read some books then the next step is to learn through experience.  Why not start from a small amount and start trading with that.  You'll soon find out that actual trading is different from looking at the markets.

Now onward to Factom...

FCT/BTC:  A Dead Cat Bounce?



So I just read the news on Coindesk that Factom got 4.2 million USD in series A funding that was lead by none other than Tim Draper:  http://www.coindesk.com/factom-blockchain-series-a-4-2-million/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CoinDesk+%28CoinDesk+-+The+Voice+of+Digital+Currency%29

So the FCT market got crazy and there's buying everywhere giving the shorts a little cringe on why this is happening now.  But the real question is, "Is this a dead cat bounce or is it the start of a reversal?"  In my experience this usually means a DCB.  These movements are normal in trading markets and nothing ever traded in an exchange goes down or up in a straight line.  FCT still is ok for now if you are shorting it but always keep in mind to protect yourself and set a stop loss and be ready to cover you shorts.

[olcaytu2005]

It also felt like a dead cat bounce to me. It got overhyped in trollbox and people fomo bought a lot. Factom is a good investment long term nonetheless however in short term I think it might go back to sub 400. More than half of the buys are grouped up under 370 and minus the fake walls all it takes a little bit of dump to start the dumpfest. I think it would go back to 330-360 range for further accumulation for the next real pump.

[olcaytu2005]

So glad I shorted over 460, I closed my position at 425 as we might see some spikes that can be taken advantage of. I'm also sad that I closed my short on ripple too early, I have had several shorts between 1550 - 1350, guess I just need some more btc to spread my positions.

I'm also watching xmr to short for a week know, I was almost certain that a short would be awesome over 130 before the REP addition, but had open positions on ripple so I was pennyless. Will xmr going to touch sub 0.007? What do you guys think?

[Shiroslullaby]

Will xmr going to touch sub 0.007? What do you guys think?

I really hope not.
I feel like the market for the coin is really fragile right now.
People were expecting it to do big things, and now that things are getting stale, everyone is in panic mode.
A slight drop might lead to a huge panic selloff which may be hard to recover from.
If it drops to 0.01 it probably will drop to 0.007 unfortunately.

[olcaytu2005]

Meh. Factom started to bullish now, since the spikes are getting higher low resistances I'm kinda urged to open a long position. There seems to be accumulation going on with the it. What do you guys think? Maybe it was not just a pump.

[ArticMine]

...

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

While having over 60% of the Dash money supply tied up in the masternodes can over the short term support the price of Dash it can also be a double edged sword and lead to a sharp fall in price of Dash if the market were to perceive that the fall in price is going to be greater than the masternode yield.

A sharp drop in price is of course a opportunity for a day trader playing the short side of the market. Having said this day trading any crypto currency can be an incredibly risky business. I seriously doubt that any particular crypto currecny is actually more suited for day trading than others.

[olcaytu2005]

...

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

While having over 60% of the Dash money supply tied up in the masternodes can over the short term support the price of Dash it can also be a double edged sword and lead to a sharp fall in price of Dash if the market were to perceive that the fall in price is going to be greater than the masternode yield.

A sharp drop in price is of course a opportunity for a day trader playing the short side of the market. Having said this day trading any crypto currency can be an incredibly risky business. I seriously doubt that any particular crypto currecny is actually more suited for day trading than others.

While the numbers are not exact, at least %60 of 4000ish masternodes were created with cheap coins. Since the price was a joke at those times, it was very easy to get 1000 darkcoin and many people rather locked them up in masternodes as the single month profit is probably greater than the amount they paid to get 1000 coins. Either way, having coins locked up in masternodes does indeed create a scarcity and pushes up the price.

[tokeweed]

ETH/BTC:  Short now?  But where's the volume?



If you read my more newer posts about ETH/BTC, you'll see that I suggested that it be short sold maybe a month or a couple months ago.  I think I said this about 2 times only for it to either stay flat or go up.  It hit my stoploss on my second attempt and I got of tired waiting for it to move in my first attempt so I covered.

This time around there's another signal but I'm reluctant to make a move on it because the volume isn't there.  Maybe this recent sell down is made by one anxious whale and it'll be over soon.  Another guess is that there may be some small ETH holders who want to switch to BTC due to BTC showing some strength lately.  Whatever it is, I'll continue to watch but I'm sitting on my hands on this one for now... 

[Shiroslullaby]

  Another guess is that there may be some small ETH holders who want to switch to BTC due to BTC showing some strength lately. 

I actually think this may be the case for a lot of altcoins.
If people are expecting BTC to go up they may pull out of other investments and sit on their coins until we hit the $650-700 mark some people are predicting.

[tokeweed]

True.  BTC has found its footing and it looks like it's being accumulated again.  The exchanges to look out for are the Chinese exchanges.  The last couple of pumps were done by them and it seems like they own Bitcoin in a way.  Those who control the mining farms indirectly controls the network.

Oh and some good news.  ETC is now available for margin trading on Kraken.  I hope REP follows soon.

[sandiman]

That bullish concensus on BTC looks more and more appropriate for a short pull back and a long squeeze.

[tokeweed]

Not unless China steps in and pumps the hell out of this.  And the current movement looks the same as the one on 2015 when BTC was around 200 - 230 USD.  Check out the chart from August 25, 2015 to October 10, 2015.  That was just before China stepped in and pumped it above 400 USD.  If you're waiting for a pull back it might not come anymore.  It's better to start nibbling at it small and slowly than regret not holding some for the big rise.

[tokeweed]

DASH/BTC:  Is it Time to Go Short?  ... No really, is it?



Here's another signal to go short that I'm sitting my hands on.  I have made two moves on this that resulted in two small losses.  So I guess the better option for now is to wait for a couple of weeks more and see if the trend down is real by confirming it through the price movement.  And keep in mind that the scenario is changing in the markets as BTC might be on its way up as mentioned from my post above this.  So altcoin shorters be ready.

[sandiman]

DASH/BTC:  Is it Time to Go Short?  ... No really, is it?



Here's another signal to go short that I'm sitting my hands on.  I have made two moves on this that resulted in two small losses.  So I guess the better option for now is to wait for a couple of weeks more and see if the trend down is real by confirming it through the price movement.  And keep in mind that the scenario is changing in the markets as BTC might be on its way up as mentioned from my post above this.  So altcoin shorters be ready.

If your strategy doesn't work I deeply advice you to reconsider it 

[tokeweed]

The strategy is fine.  I'm willing to take small losses as the wins make up for them giving me a decent margin to gain some profit.  While whipsaws are part of the way I trade, sometimes it gets really frustrating especially when markets go flat.

Edit:  ETC is a short as well.  You can do it on Kraken.

[Dinki]

I've been waiting for the price of Factom to rise higher for a while now. Guess I can't keep tying down my funds, I'll short and try my luck with some other coin.