How to gamble the right way

[xuan87]

lol , it is a very complicated programing like calaculation and i don't think there can be a better way to gamble with these type of stretgy or calaculation . best way is that keep away himself from lossable gambling .

well it is true its very complicated, but if you are serious about gambling, then you need to understand the probability and the calculation, the tips that OP provide actually its very useful, but its a bit complicated for starter, and as for myself i only play or fun, i dont really want to bother with the complicated calculation, i just want to enjoy the activity

[newcripto]

When you convince yourself that there is some right way,smart way or safer way to gamble this is first wrong step in my opinion. I have been in gambling for over 10 years and can say on based of my experience gambling is taking risk straight where you can win or loose in any type of gambling. Sports betting is not safer or smart way either as you may loose on any strong team.

[Rostadom]

There's no written agreement or any standards about gambling in the "right" way. Thinking that you're gambling in the right way just because you're doing "safe" betting, low multipliers, low bet amount, is just all an illusion. An illusion that you're doing it the right way, a way for you to convince yourself that you're somewhat different from other gamblers. At the end of the day, you'll still be losing money from gambling.

[Bardman]

It seems very hard to find two different bitcoin websites that will give you high enough odds to make that work. I didn't really understand the second part and your formulas are really not clean, you could have made it much simpler.

For fiat money websites, you do have comparison tools which show you sure bet opportunities like http://www.bmbets.com/sure-bets/ (not my site fyi).
For bitcoin betting sites, there might be similar tools but none that I am aware of.

In order to find such opportunities, your best chance is to hover websites which have low overround (i.e. margin) like https://predimarket.net (this is my site fyi) and make a little spreadsheet with predefined formulas computing the overround.

And what is the second part you refer to?

The part with the bookie and their odds. So you are basically calculating the profit based on what the bookie expectations or odds are but how can you take advantage of that?

I assume you are talking about "value betting" not "sure betting".

A value bet is a betting opportunity where you think one outcome (e.g. the victory of whatever team or player) is more likely to occur than the odds of the bookmaker actually suggest. If you check the calculations in the original post, I am showing how to compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker towards the game. Using the formula I gave, you can calculate the probability of victory of team A according to the bookmaker and see what he actually thinks is going to happen in the end.
I also gave a formula to compute the margin that the bookie takes, to give you a better idea of how "greedy" he is.
The opinion (i.e. probabilities) and margin are simple metrics that can help you decide if the bet is worth something or not.

As per how to take advantage of that, you need to first "decide" what your own probabilities are and then compare them to the odds of the bookmaker (see OP).

An example of that:

A plays against B and you can bet on either A or B.
Assume that you compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker and find that he thinks that A has 60% chance to win and B has 40% chance to win.
You also compute the margin and find 5% (that makes an overround of 1.05).
(All of this combined means the odds for A and B are respectively 1.587 and 2.380)

Now you need to "decide" what is your opinion of the game A vs B, in terms of probabilities: is it 65% for A and 35% for B, or maybe 70% | 30% or even 60% | 30% like the bookmaker. These values are yours to decide, they are up to your knowledge and expertise of the game.

If you think A has 65% chance of winning, then you compare this value to the inverse of the odds for A i.e. 1/1.587 which is equal to 0.630 roughly: you can see that it is smaller than 65% (=0.65). In these conditions, betting on A is an opportunity from your point of view and you should bet on A.
On the contrary, if you think A has no more than 60% chance of winning, then you should not bet on A (at this bookie at least) given that 0.60 < 0.630.

Of course, there's a thin line between assessing the chances of winning at 60% or 65% but this is what can give you an edge. And more realistically, you should only bet when you notice a significant difference between your probability and the bookmaker's, just to give you room for estimation errors.

Ok but in that case couldn't you profit just from copying the bookies predictions? Always betting on the team he thinks has better odds, obviously the profit won't be much but as you said they are pretty accurate, not 100% so you might as well just copy them no? After all when you bet on a team you always bet on it because you think its gonna win no matter what the bookie says, have you tried your "strategy" long term?

[J Gambler]

the right way to gamble is either not gamble at all and stay away from all gambling related places if you love your money or instead you can choose to only gamble with free money these gambling sites give you like the faucet or promotional giveaways they have.

You're buddy the right way to not lose money or bitcoin from gambling is stay away from all gambling site where you could lose your money in a second and you could not turn it back for me it is better not to gambling and instead of gambling do trading so that you can know more about cryptop

[raphma]

the right way to gamble is either not gamble at all and stay away from all gambling related places if you love your money or instead you can choose to only gamble with free money these gambling sites give you like the faucet or promotional giveaways they have.

You're buddy the right way to not lose money or bitcoin from gambling is stay away from all gambling site where you could lose your money in a second and you could not turn it back for me it is better not to gambling and instead of gambling do trading so that you can know more about cryptop

it's not like that... you just cant see gambling as an investment. but still fun to play as long as you do it with little amounts. trading is a investment and most of the time is boring, so gambling can break the monotony.
again, different things and gambling will never be a investment... you will lose more than you win.

[20kevin20]

The right way? Well, the only 'right' way existing is the control. Manage your money, keep your savings safe somewhere and only play with affordable amounts. You can play with more than you can afford too, but then don't ask again what you can do and stop whining about losing. I've gambled with more than I afforded to just once, I regret it and I never did it again ever since. Take care!

[shanem]

The right way? Well, the only 'right' way existing is the control. Manage your money, keep your savings safe somewhere and only play with affordable amounts. You can play with more than you can afford too, but then don't ask again what you can do and stop whining about losing. I've gambled with more than I afforded to just once, I regret it and I never did it again ever since. Take care!

The only 'right' way is money management and your self control when gambling. Other than that, there is no 'right' way. You need to depend on your luck during your game. This is all I can say about what you can do to try to prevent your loss of capital.

[doomistake]

There's no such thing like that in gambling. Because in the first place gambling is not right for us to do to earn a living and to get a profit from it, if the word itself "gambling" is not right from the very start, how come that there is a right way in gambling? I think this is ridiculous just for my opinion. You can never do gambling in the right because everything in gambling is illegal and against from the God's word. And if what you're saying is the right way in gambling for you to win is also the same thing like what I've said earlier, there's no such thing like that in gambling because you're only winning because the house have already planned it for you to be more addicted to it because you're thinking that you're good at it and you will never get lose.

[deadlyunknown]

Self control is one way to balance your activity in gambling. If you focus mainly on profit, then sports betting or poket is the best method for you.

[Denker]

That does not exist.
Some prefer to take lots of risk, others not. Some may use or prefer high odds and one single bet, and again others prefer to take lower odds and diverce with several bets.
Some care about money and how much they may loose, others don't give a damn.
There's no guide in the world of gambling to tell or teach you what is right and what is wrong.
Find your own way, and when it is successful, then stick to it and don't listen to what others would change if they were you.

[sana54210]

The right way? Well, the only 'right' way existing is the control. Manage your money, keep your savings safe somewhere and only play with affordable amounts. You can play with more than you can afford too, but then don't ask again what you can do and stop whining about losing. I've gambled with more than I afforded to just once, I regret it and I never did it again ever since. Take care!

The only 'right' way is money management and your self control when gambling. Other than that, there is no 'right' way. You need to depend on your luck during your game. This is all I can say about what you can do to try to prevent your loss of capital.

Money management might get you stop gambling at right time but will not guarantee for the right way of gambling.

Self control is the thing it is not at all possible for any gamblers regardless of their experience as gambling will be playing against your smartness to lose your self control.

Luck may be the perfect factor for the right way of gambling. But no one will be able to control his lack, so that right way of gambling might be an impossible way.

[futurebit640]

Sports betting is the safe betting in gambling. Here choose your fav game and check the players and team previous performance. Place your bet on low odds like @1.10 or @1.20. if you are looking for small profit then place small amount. if you have big bankroll they place high amount. these odds are almost 90% winning odds. SO try this once and share your experience.

[Superbitzz]

if you really want to gambling in right way you need to play gambling in a limit with some strategy, if you will limit your gambling it mean that you will minimize your huge risk of loosing money, and that is also the only way of safe gambling.

[harizen]

Sports betting is the safe betting in gambling. Here choose your fav game and check the players and team previous performance. Place your bet on low odds like @1.10 or @1.20. if you are looking for small profit then place small amount. if you have big bankroll they place high amount. these odds are almost 90% winning odds. SO try this once and share your experience.

Odds like 1.10 or 1.20 is not worth it. It's like playing in the faucet. Better improve it to 1.8 above so that we are not wasting opportunities.

No worries about the loss since by using the classic martingale people can get back the loss*. If in a case, people really suffers, let' say 10 consecutive lost, then better stop gambling as it's really unusual for a sports bettor to get lost in that number of streaks. What a bad luck they have.

[PrediMarket]

When you convince yourself that there is some right way,smart way or safer way to gamble this is first wrong step in my opinion. I have been in gambling for over 10 years and can say on based of my experience gambling is taking risk straight where you can win or loose in any type of gambling. Sports betting is not safer or smart way either as you may loose on any strong team.

Two centuries ago, people would never fly in machines made of metal for their whole life and would have told you that it is impossible to do so.

There are techniques that can help you play better at sportsbetting. It gets mathematical quite quickly but if you stick to the basic principles (like the ones I exposed), it is not that difficult and could make a difference in your winnings: you might not be able to be profitable, but you will surely lose less money.

[crairezx20]

if you really want to gambling in right way you need to play gambling in a limit with some strategy, if you will limit your gambling it mean that you will minimize your huge risk of loosing money, and that is also the only way of safe gambling.

Yeah you have the point just limit and dont be greedy if you are not satisfied what you had you will lose a lot.. so be wise if you made already a profit better to withdraw it and secure you profit..
Try sports betting is more chance to win there unlike other dice game or slots..

[PrediMarket]

It seems very hard to find two different bitcoin websites that will give you high enough odds to make that work. I didn't really understand the second part and your formulas are really not clean, you could have made it much simpler.

For fiat money websites, you do have comparison tools which show you sure bet opportunities like http://www.bmbets.com/sure-bets/ (not my site fyi).
For bitcoin betting sites, there might be similar tools but none that I am aware of.

In order to find such opportunities, your best chance is to hover websites which have low overround (i.e. margin) like https://predimarket.net (this is my site fyi) and make a little spreadsheet with predefined formulas computing the overround.

And what is the second part you refer to?

The part with the bookie and their odds. So you are basically calculating the profit based on what the bookie expectations or odds are but how can you take advantage of that?

I assume you are talking about "value betting" not "sure betting".

A value bet is a betting opportunity where you think one outcome (e.g. the victory of whatever team or player) is more likely to occur than the odds of the bookmaker actually suggest. If you check the calculations in the original post, I am showing how to compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker towards the game. Using the formula I gave, you can calculate the probability of victory of team A according to the bookmaker and see what he actually thinks is going to happen in the end.
I also gave a formula to compute the margin that the bookie takes, to give you a better idea of how "greedy" he is.
The opinion (i.e. probabilities) and margin are simple metrics that can help you decide if the bet is worth something or not.

As per how to take advantage of that, you need to first "decide" what your own probabilities are and then compare them to the odds of the bookmaker (see OP).

An example of that:

A plays against B and you can bet on either A or B.
Assume that you compute the "opinion" of the bookmaker and find that he thinks that A has 60% chance to win and B has 40% chance to win.
You also compute the margin and find 5% (that makes an overround of 1.05).
(All of this combined means the odds for A and B are respectively 1.587 and 2.380)

Now you need to "decide" what is your opinion of the game A vs B, in terms of probabilities: is it 65% for A and 35% for B, or maybe 70% | 30% or even 60% | 30% like the bookmaker. These values are yours to decide, they are up to your knowledge and expertise of the game.

If you think A has 65% chance of winning, then you compare this value to the inverse of the odds for A i.e. 1/1.587 which is equal to 0.630 roughly: you can see that it is smaller than 65% (=0.65). In these conditions, betting on A is an opportunity from your point of view and you should bet on A.
On the contrary, if you think A has no more than 60% chance of winning, then you should not bet on A (at this bookie at least) given that 0.60 < 0.630.

Of course, there's a thin line between assessing the chances of winning at 60% or 65% but this is what can give you an edge. And more realistically, you should only bet when you notice a significant difference between your probability and the bookmaker's, just to give you room for estimation errors.

Ok but in that case couldn't you profit just from copying the bookies predictions? Always betting on the team he thinks has better odds, obviously the profit won't be much but as you said they are pretty accurate, not 100% so you might as well just copy them no? After all when you bet on a team you always bet on it because you think its gonna win no matter what the bookie says, have you tried your "strategy" long term?

If you share exactly the same opinion as the bookmaker, then making the bet with this bookmaker is always a bad idea.

Take my last example: if you think A has also 60% chance of winning, then you compare 60% (=0.6) to 1/1.587 (i.e one divided by the odds of A) which is equal to 0.630 roughly.
Given that 0.6 is smaller than 0.630, then betting on this game is a bad idea (at this bookie at least).

It is actually important to consider the differences between your opinion and the one of the bookmaker. Because then, you can apply this rule (if you choose to go for value betting) and in the long run (after a significant number of bets), that kind of betting discipline will be fruitful.

About your question regarding myself using those strategies, the answer is no and here's why.

Firstly, I wanted to make my own sportsbook (PrediMarket) because I have been developing a whole range of pricing techniques for bookmakers that I wanted to put into practice.

Then, sportsbetting being a very competitive field, I thought I could also turn myself as well into a gambler, to increase my revenue but I would only do that if I could automate a betting strategy because it is the accumulation of bets that can yield a relatively sure profit.

However, for the two basic strategies I described, there are significant obstacles that I cannot overcome for now:

• sure betting strategy: you need at least 2 bitcoin bookies which provide an API but currently, there's only one that I know of (BETBTC)
• value betting strategy: I would need to create an algorithm to produce probabilities for each game, based on historical data. While I have already done that for simple cases (like intra-league games), it gets more complicated when you are dealing with games involving from different leagues like UEFA Champion's League which might have never played against each other.

Although, it is difficult to automate such strategies, you can still apply them at a human level and they will prove useful.
If I tell you I hold a PhD in Applied Mathematics in Economy, would that convince you a bit more?

[PrediMarket]

For those who only talk about luck, check this out:

https://sports.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-life-of-a-professional-gambler

Unless it's a fake, there might be more than luck in gambling...

EDIT: quoted from the article:

I developed a programme myself that works completely off of mathematics. My bets have nothing to do with luck. I never leave anything up to a gut feeling, it's all about my calculations.

[raaajlucky]

For those who only talk about luck, check this out:

https://sports.vice.com/en_uk/article/the-life-of-a-professional-gambler

Unless it's a fake, there might be more than luck in gambling...

Nice article, But it is true? According to his way the gambling is not based on luck, It's fully based on mathematics calculations. I don't know how maths will work in gambling. I think he will play only skill base games. So he is saying that he develop a program for betting, and he will make every week 10k euros. Is this possible in gambling?