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Author Topic: How to gamble the right way  (Read 3832 times)
roadbits
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October 29, 2016, 02:30:51 PM
 #121

It's easy to gamble the right way. Don't go all in on your bets if you are not ready to lose it all, have a self control and don't easily get rage when you lose your bet, because i already experienced it and it make me busted.
Well that is really not going to be an effective way if you are going to do YOLOing because if you are going to do that. It is just like you are going to risk all of your money with one just bet. But if you are really a risk taker then you are going to do this but for me the right way to gamble is just you are going to gamble with low amount.
All in is always dangerous thing don't do this. You will lose your all money in a single bet. But according to me the right way to gamble means playing with little amount is not a safe method. You should choose the right odds, yes if your odds is low then your winning chance is high. If your odds is high, your winning chance is low. So choose low odds and place high amount, try this you may make some profit in this method.
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October 29, 2016, 02:48:24 PM
 #122

Hi guys,

After seeing a lots of threads where people asked about the best gambling strategy, I thought I could share a bit of my knowledge on these questions in order to hopefully bring some insights to those who are not aware of it yet.

Please bear in my mind that the comments I will make are not my personal point of view on the topic of gambling, which is simply a form of financial investment, but only a recap of what is generally admitted among researchers in economics and by extension in the financial industry.

Also note that I will only talk about betting on real events like sport games (typically sports betting or trading on prediction markets).

Are there some martingale techniques that allow a gambler or an investor to make money at a single bookie?

As you probably know, there is none, simply because the bookmaker sets the rules for its bets in order to favor its own profit over its players' profit. This is generally achieved by setting a margin (overround).

All right, so that means there's no way I can make a profit in gambling?

Well, not really. You can actually make a profit out of gambling but you have to rely on other things than a simple technical procedure like a martingale.

Basically, there are two key aspects to take into account:
  • Information (e.g. teams' relative strengths)
  • Bankroll management (i.e. What percentage of your betting budget is it reasonable to bet)

I'll come back with details on these two aspects later on.

I said there is no martingale that guarantees you a profit at a single bookie but there is actually one that can do it if you bet at several bookies.
Most of you probably know it: it's called sure betting or simply arbitrage in financial terms.

The idea behind sure betting is the same as the one behind arbitrage. When you want to make an arbitrage on a financial market, you need to find two markets where the price of the same stock or whatever financial product is different. In such a case, you buy the stock on the cheaper market and you sell it on the more expensive one, thus ensuring a sure profit (the price difference).

Sure betting works similarly: you need to find at least two different bookies that will give odds high enough to ensure a sure profit. To be more specific, suppose you want to bet on a two-way game opposing A vs B. If odds_A denotes the (decimal) odds in favor of A and odds_B denotes the (decimal) odds in favor of B, then you need to find those odds such that: 1/odds_A + 1/odds_B < 1.

For example, if odds_A = 2 and odds_B = 2.1 then 1/2 + 1/2.1 = 0.976... < 1. Then, to make a sure bet, you just wage w*1/odds_A on A and w*1/odds_B on B where w is any number you want (the higher w, the higher your sure profit). When the game is decided:
  • if A wins: you get odds_A*(w*1/odds_A) - w*1/odds_A - w*1/odds_B = w*(1 - 1/odds_A - 1/odds_B) > 0
  • if B wins: you get odds_B*(w*1/odds_B) - w*1/odds_A - w*1/odds_B = w*(1 - 1/odds_A - 1/odds_B) > 0

In fact, when you bet money on the victory of A, it's like you "buy A" and when you bet money on the victory of B, it's like you "sell A" since it is the opposite of supporting the victory of A. Thus, you buy and sell the same product on two different bookies but at a different price, hence the profit.

Information

Information is just a general way of saying that you need to know the teams, players and games you are betting on.
While everybody knows that, it is often a good idea to push the concept a bit further and analyze the odds to see whether there is a betting opportunity (also referred to as value betting by gamblers).
When you see the set of odds offered by a bookie on a market (assuming that it did not receive any bets yet), it actually tells you what the bookie thinks about what is likely to happen in the game. Taking the same example as before with A and B, odds_A and odds_B can be break down into this:
  • odds_A = 1/(overround * p_A)
  • odds_B = 1/(overround * p_B)

where p_A and p_B are the respective implicit probabilities of A winning and B winning and overround is the margin of the bookie (>1) and can be calculated by:
overround = 1/odds_A + 1/odds_B. Putting, those formulas together, you have an easy way of calculating the implicit probabilities of the game, according to the bookmaker:
  • p_A = (1/odds_A) / (1/odds_A + 1/odds_B)
  • p_B = (1/odds_B) / (1/odds_A + 1/odds_B)

For example, if odds_A = 1.35 and odds_B = 3.05, then p_A = (1/1.35)/(1/1.35 + 1/3.05) = 69.3% and p_B = (1/3.05)/(1/1.35 + 1/3.05) = 30.7%.

Hence, if you have the same opinion, in other words the same probabilities, as the bookie for this game, the average net profit you would get out of this game by betting on A would be:
p_A * odds_A*w + p_B * 0 - w = w*(1/overround - 1) < 0 (and similarly for a bet on B)

which shows that in these conditions, it's not rationally a good idea to bet. Of course, you could still bet if you are "sure" that A or B is going to win but that's not a rational argument but I am leaving it aside for the sake of the discussion.

However, you can hold a different view on what's going to happen in the game, i.e. have a different opinion. Bookies are not error-proof as several university studies showed it over the years. Thus, if you think A has a chance of winning of q_A and B has a chance of winning of q_B, then your average net profit betting on A would be:
q_A * odds_A*w + q_B * 0 - w = w*(q_A/(p_A*overround) - 1) (and similarly for a bet on B)

In such a case, if q_A is high enough, i.e. you think A has much more chance of winning than what the bookie actually suggests, then you could achieve a profit (in average).
To be more specific, this will be the case if q_A/(p_A*overround) - 1 > 0 i.e q_A > p_A*overround = 1/odds_A. Of course, the more the overround is low (low margin), the more likely you are to find such opportunities at a bookie.

Bankroll management

Bankroll management is a much more complicated topic. The most well-known method of managing your betting amounts is the Kelly criterion.
It basically tells you how much you should bet on a particular outcome given the probabilities of the game and your betting budget as well. It aims at getting you the maximal possible increase of your bankroll over the time.
Another pro for using a bankroll management technique is that it forces you to avoid betting unreasonable amounts that could bankrupt you. Because if you are in that case, it is much more difficult to recover from your losses as you are dead broke and you do need money to bet.

I could elaborate more on the technical aspects of the Kelly criterion but I don't know if you guys are interested or not.

So, on top of my head, these are the most important facts to know when betting in order to avoid major fails.
If you have any questions or possibly don't agree (Smiley), let me know!

According to me There is no Right Way to Gamble Because Gambling is Just a Game Of Losing Money and Here If you are Lucky then You can Win Otherwise You Always Lose Your Money....
So My Suggestion Is that Stay Away From Gambling and I Don't Think that There is Any Way Of Doing Gambling the Right Way............

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October 29, 2016, 02:51:02 PM
 #123

It's easy to gamble the right way. Don't go all in on your bets if you are not ready to lose it all, have a self control and don't easily get rage when you lose your bet, because i already experienced it and it make me busted.
Well that is really not going to be an effective way if you are going to do YOLOing because if you are going to do that. It is just like you are going to risk all of your money with one just bet. But if you are really a risk taker then you are going to do this but for me the right way to gamble is just you are going to gamble with low amount.
All in is always dangerous thing don't do this. You will lose your all money in a single bet. But according to me the right way to gamble means playing with little amount is not a safe method. You should choose the right odds, yes if your odds is low then your winning chance is high. If your odds is high, your winning chance is low. So choose low odds and place high amount, try this you may make some profit in this method.

YOLO or all in is something we can do if we are a lazy gambler and actually if you are playing in a game that has a house  edge it will give you a good chance to win as when you are playing longer your chances to win slowly diminish but doing all in will give you win if you have a lucky roll.
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October 29, 2016, 03:14:25 PM
 #124

It's easy to gamble the right way. Don't go all in on your bets if you are not ready to lose it all, have a self control and don't easily get rage when you lose your bet, because i already experienced it and it make me busted.
Well that is really not going to be an effective way if you are going to do YOLOing because if you are going to do that. It is just like you are going to risk all of your money with one just bet. But if you are really a risk taker then you are going to do this but for me the right way to gamble is just you are going to gamble with low amount.
All in is always dangerous thing don't do this. You will lose your all money in a single bet. But according to me the right way to gamble means playing with little amount is not a safe method. You should choose the right odds, yes if your odds is low then your winning chance is high. If your odds is high, your winning chance is low. So choose low odds and place high amount, try this you may make some profit in this method.

YOLO or all in is something we can do if we are a lazy gambler and actually if you are playing in a game that has a house  edge it will give you a good chance to win as when you are playing longer your chances to win slowly diminish but doing all in will give you win if you have a lucky roll.

Yeah this is not a right way to gamble unless you are lucky. Start on making some low bets would atleast be necessary to gamble so that you can control your money and not to lose it all in just one roll. Try to play in sports betting which can give you a higher chance of winning rather than playing in dice games and slot machines.

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carlerha
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October 29, 2016, 03:57:25 PM
 #125

i think it is not such a difficult job, to me if you play gambling in a limit then surely you are playing gambling in a right way and through this way you will never lose your all investment in a single day and will get even more chances to recover your lost any time.
The problem is that for a significant amount of people the only limit they know is the table limit, unless you are referring to a limit specified in a game like Limit Texas Holdem.

Well, they dont even have limit in their gambling. They may hit the limit but they will carry on gambling for more hands and even if they run out of money, they will find ways to borrow and gamble for debt.
yes and that is the reason that every says that gambling is not profitable. i think if a person play gambling in a strategy and having a limit for gambling then one can make good money in gambling.
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October 29, 2016, 04:18:44 PM
 #126

Firstly, you have to control your temper,don't be too greedy.Never expect earning much from gambling.And always bet small which you can afford to lose.Lastly, if you wanna earn decent amount with taking risk I will suggest to try sports betting.
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October 29, 2016, 05:20:19 PM
 #127

There is no right way to gamble, The odds are always against the player to the same extent whether you use a martingale strategy or any other strategy, There are always a house edge against the player unless you are cheating or something like arbitrary in sportbetting.
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November 07, 2016, 04:54:54 AM
 #128

There are lots of ways to gamble the right way. First you need to set a limit of your bet(bankroll). Stick to the budget and never fake it. Accept that you lose more than winning so bet on what you can afford to lose. It means if you lose a certain amount, it is easy for you to earn that amount in a shortest possible time. Never borrow money to gamble because you will double lose it, this will be beginning of your addiction. If you lose accept it with whole heart, if you don't want to lose anymore don't play again. 
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November 07, 2016, 05:00:08 AM
 #129

There is no "right way" to gambling. Gambling is gambling. There are risks and you must realise that before you start gambling. Don't treat it as a way to earn money. Gambling is a way to lose money in the long run.

However, that doesn't mean that you shouldn't gamble for fun. Gambling is enjoyable for some.
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November 07, 2016, 06:59:33 AM
 #130

There is no right way to gamble, The odds are always against the player to the same extent whether you use a martingale strategy or any other strategy, There are always a house edge against the player unless you are cheating or something like arbitrary in sportbetting.

The only right way is just gambling for fun with a small amount which you can afford to lose once in awhile. Don't ever try to gamble to win big money from gambling because that will make you greedy and end up lose a lot of money in gambling. Whether it is sports betting or online games just remember to gamble only for fun and entertainment purpose.
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December 13, 2016, 08:11:36 AM
 #131

Hi guys,

After seeing a lots of threads where people asked about the best gambling strategy, I thought I could share a bit of my knowledge on these questions in order to hopefully bring some insights to those who are not aware of it yet.

Please bear in my mind that the comments I will make are not my personal point of view on the topic of gambling, which is simply a form of financial investment, but only a recap of what is generally admitted among researchers in economics and by extension in the financial industry.

Also note that I will only talk about betting on real events like sport games (typically sports betting or trading on prediction markets).

Are there some martingale techniques that allow a gambler or an investor to make money at a single bookie?

As you probably know, there is none, simply because the bookmaker sets the rules for its bets in order to favor its own profit over its players' profit. This is generally achieved by setting a margin (overround).

All right, so that means there's no way I can make a profit in gambling?

Well, not really. You can actually make a profit out of gambling but you have to rely on other things than a simple technical procedure like a martingale.

Basically, there are two key aspects to take into account:
  • Information (e.g. teams' relative strengths)
  • Bankroll management (i.e. What percentage of your betting budget is it reasonable to bet)

I'll come back with details on these two aspects later on.

I said there is no martingale that guarantees you a profit at a single bookie but there is actually one that can do it if you bet at several bookies.
Most of you probably know it: it's called sure betting or simply arbitrage in financial terms.

The idea behind sure betting is the same as the one behind arbitrage. When you want to make an arbitrage on a financial market, you need to find two markets where the price of the same stock or whatever financial product is different. In such a case, you buy the stock on the cheaper market and you sell it on the more expensive one, thus ensuring a sure profit (the price difference).

Sure betting works similarly: you need to find at least two different bookies that will give odds high enough to ensure a sure profit. To be more specific, suppose you want to bet on a two-way game opposing A vs B. If odds_A denotes the (decimal) odds in favor of A and odds_B denotes the (decimal) odds in favor of B, then you need to find those odds such that: 1/odds_A + 1/odds_B < 1.

For example, if odds_A = 2 and odds_B = 2.1 then 1/2 + 1/2.1 = 0.976... < 1. Then, to make a sure bet, you just wage w*1/odds_A on A and w*1/odds_B on B where w is any number you want (the higher w, the higher your sure profit). When the game is decided:
  • if A wins: you get odds_A*(w*1/odds_A) - w*1/odds_A - w*1/odds_B = w*(1 - 1/odds_A - 1/odds_B) > 0
  • if B wins: you get odds_B*(w*1/odds_B) - w*1/odds_A - w*1/odds_B = w*(1 - 1/odds_A - 1/odds_B) > 0

In fact, when you bet money on the victory of A, it's like you "buy A" and when you bet money on the victory of B, it's like you "sell A" since it is the opposite of supporting the victory of A. Thus, you buy and sell the same product on two different bookies but at a different price, hence the profit.

Information

Information is just a general way of saying that you need to know the teams, players and games you are betting on.
While everybody knows that, it is often a good idea to push the concept a bit further and analyze the odds to see whether there is a betting opportunity (also referred to as value betting by gamblers).
When you see the set of odds offered by a bookie on a market (assuming that it did not receive any bets yet), it actually tells you what the bookie thinks about what is likely to happen in the game. Taking the same example as before with A and B, odds_A and odds_B can be break down into this:
  • odds_A = 1/(overround * p_A)
  • odds_B = 1/(overround * p_B)

where p_A and p_B are the respective implicit probabilities of A winning and B winning and overround is the margin of the bookie (>1) and can be calculated by:
overround = 1/odds_A + 1/odds_B. Putting, those formulas together, you have an easy way of calculating the implicit probabilities of the game, according to the bookmaker:
  • p_A = (1/odds_A) / (1/odds_A + 1/odds_B)
  • p_B = (1/odds_B) / (1/odds_A + 1/odds_B)

For example, if odds_A = 1.35 and odds_B = 3.05, then p_A = (1/1.35)/(1/1.35 + 1/3.05) = 69.3% and p_B = (1/3.05)/(1/1.35 + 1/3.05) = 30.7%.

Hence, if you have the same opinion, in other words the same probabilities, as the bookie for this game, the average net profit you would get out of this game by betting on A would be:
p_A * odds_A*w + p_B * 0 - w = w*(1/overround - 1) < 0 (and similarly for a bet on B)

which shows that in these conditions, it's not rationally a good idea to bet. Of course, you could still bet if you are "sure" that A or B is going to win but that's not a rational argument but I am leaving it aside for the sake of the discussion.

However, you can hold a different view on what's going to happen in the game, i.e. have a different opinion. Bookies are not error-proof as several university studies showed it over the years. Thus, if you think A has a chance of winning of q_A and B has a chance of winning of q_B, then your average net profit betting on A would be:
q_A * odds_A*w + q_B * 0 - w = w*(q_A/(p_A*overround) - 1) (and similarly for a bet on B)

In such a case, if q_A is high enough, i.e. you think A has much more chance of winning than what the bookie actually suggests, then you could achieve a profit (in average).
To be more specific, this will be the case if q_A/(p_A*overround) - 1 > 0 i.e q_A > p_A*overround = 1/odds_A. Of course, the more the overround is low (low margin), the more likely you are to find such opportunities at a bookie.

Bankroll management

Bankroll management is a much more complicated topic. The most well-known method of managing your betting amounts is the Kelly criterion.
It basically tells you how much you should bet on a particular outcome given the probabilities of the game and your betting budget as well. It aims at getting you the maximal possible increase of your bankroll over the time.
Another pro for using a bankroll management technique is that it forces you to avoid betting unreasonable amounts that could bankrupt you. Because if you are in that case, it is much more difficult to recover from your losses as you are dead broke and you do need money to bet.

I could elaborate more on the technical aspects of the Kelly criterion but I don't know if you guys are interested or not.

So, on top of my head, these are the most important facts to know when betting in order to avoid major fails.
If you have any questions or possibly don't agree (Smiley), let me know!
According to Me there is no Stertagy or Tricks available to win in gambling because there is a big truth that all casinos work on a Probability and you can't win in long run in gambling So I Suggest you to Leave gambling and do some other business that will help you to make some profits.
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December 13, 2016, 08:25:11 AM
 #132

Quote
According to Me there is no Stertagy or Tricks available to win in gambling because there is a big truth that all casinos work on a Probability and you can't win in long run in gambling So I Suggest you to Leave gambling and do some other business that will help you to make some profits.

I don't agree 100% with this because in sports betting you will only lose because of the pick you made not because casino are controlling the game because you have a bet. Losing in a long run usually happens if you are playing dice etc etc , games that are luck based.
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December 15, 2016, 01:31:01 PM
 #133

Quote
According to Me there is no Stertagy or Tricks available to win in gambling because there is a big truth that all casinos work on a Probability and you can't win in long run in gambling So I Suggest you to Leave gambling and do some other business that will help you to make some profits.

I don't agree 100% with this because in sports betting you will only lose because of the pick you made not because casino are controlling the game because you have a bet. Losing in a long run usually happens if you are playing dice etc etc , games that are luck based.
That could also be possible in sports betting, you will lose in the long run if you do not have the enough bankroll to run in the time period of your betting journey and if you will not be able to control your emotion.
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December 15, 2016, 01:38:18 PM
 #134

Quote
According to Me there is no Stertagy or Tricks available to win in gambling because there is a big truth that all casinos work on a Probability and you can't win in long run in gambling So I Suggest you to Leave gambling and do some other business that will help you to make some profits.

I don't agree 100% with this because in sports betting you will only lose because of the pick you made not because casino are controlling the game because you have a bet. Losing in a long run usually happens if you are playing dice etc etc , games that are luck based.
That could also be possible in sports betting, you will lose in the long run if you do not have the enough bankroll to run in the time period of your betting journey and if you will not be able to control your emotion.

The defeat and the advantage is something we can get in the gambling, so if we make a profit then that exceptional things and if we get sebalinya (defeat) then we should learn better. And bankroll isn't something to make us win or lose, because their bankroll is not central in every thing. And the thing we have to think of is strategy and self control, if we can have both of those things then any little bets we have will end up on the fun and profit
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December 16, 2016, 10:17:32 AM
 #135

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According to Me there is no Stertagy or Tricks available to win in gambling because there is a big truth that all casinos work on a Probability and you can't win in long run in gambling So I Suggest you to Leave gambling and do some other business that will help you to make some profits.

I don't agree 100% with this because in sports betting you will only lose because of the pick you made not because casino are controlling the game because you have a bet. Losing in a long run usually happens if you are playing dice etc etc , games that are luck based.
That could also be possible in sports betting, you will lose in the long run if you do not have the enough bankroll to run in the time period of your betting journey and if you will not be able to control your emotion.

The defeat and the advantage is something we can get in the gambling, so if we make a profit then that exceptional things and if we get sebalinya (defeat) then we should learn better. And bankroll isn't something to make us win or lose, because their bankroll is not central in every thing. And the thing we have to think of is strategy and self control, if we can have both of those things then any little bets we have will end up on the fun and profit
Bankroll is not a central thing but you need it for you to be able to win a decent amount of money, your ability to predict the outcome of the will lead you to success only if you are able to do it will discipline. Meaning, you will not be affected by the mixed emotions along the way, and you ability to manage yourself will make you more successful in the long run.

TheGodFather
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December 16, 2016, 10:56:41 AM
 #136

there's a right way to gamble first you must have enough capital to start with and put it on a gambling sites bankroll that you preferred. and also when you're already playing gambling you must start your 3 rounds in a low bet amount because thats the way you can see if you're a lucky enough to play with a high bet amount.
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December 16, 2016, 12:40:31 PM
 #137

there is no special way of playing gambling. we just follow the flow and try to hope that we succeed. playing gambling is risking life and most of our money.

Obviously, in my opinion gambling the right way means you as a gambler enjoys while playing. In that way you were able to release some stress. Tho, if you think of your profit then you maybe are right there is no such way.
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December 16, 2016, 02:29:15 PM
 #138

there's a right way to gamble first you must have enough capital to start with and put it on a gambling sites bankroll that you preferred. and also when you're already playing gambling you must start your 3 rounds in a low bet amount because thats the way you can see if you're a lucky enough to play with a high bet amount.
we can't rely on it mate as we knew that even small bets will let us lose if streak will be continuously as we really can't control anything if we are in play so i think it is much better to plan before to start making sure that the money that you will going to use is the one that you can afford to lose then assess what type of a gambler you can be, checking your emotions and fears in that way you can avoid losing control when you are not lucky from that particular day so you can quit and relax think for another day maybe you can be lucky.
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December 16, 2016, 02:39:12 PM
 #139

there's a right way to gamble first you must have enough capital to start with and put it on a gambling sites bankroll that you preferred. and also when you're already playing gambling you must start your 3 rounds in a low bet amount because thats the way you can see if you're a lucky enough to play with a high bet amount.
we can't rely on it mate as we knew that even small bets will let us lose if streak will be continuously as we really can't control anything if we are in play so i think it is much better to plan before to start making sure that the money that you will going to use is the one that you can afford to lose then assess what type of a gambler you can be, checking your emotions and fears in that way you can avoid losing control when you are not lucky from that particular day so you can quit and relax think for another day maybe you can be lucky.

I agree I think the right way to gamble has something to do about managing your money and managing risk.  These two are the most important factor.  It does not tackle about winning because people are aware that winning is just a chance, you can never sure that you will win in every roll.  You have no control on it.  What you have control is the things you have at the moment.  The bet, the option to continue or quit, the statistics, you should make use of this thing.  And most importantly your emotion.  Never let your emotion control you instead control your emotion the same way don't be played byt the system but rather play the system to your favor.  

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December 16, 2016, 03:30:31 PM
 #140

To gamble good way you need practice and to find out your own strategy and style. I would recommend to wastch some lessons from professional gamblers on YouTube I think that may help in the most beginning.
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