How many Alts do you expect to survive long term?

[ttookk]

Hello,

this is probably going to be another controversial topic, but I think, I'd start it for the heck of it. You can all scream at each other about how wrong the other person is, but please refrain from excessive verbal abuse.

To preface this, I'd define "survive" as being at least a few years old, holding steady or rising in value and having no indication of imminent end of the project/blockchain.

Anyway, I was just asking myself this:
At the moment, there are hundreds of Altcoins out there. Let's assume, that in ten to twenty years, blockchain is a word everybody knows like everybody knows the word internet.

How many altcoins/blockchain project/whatever you wanna call it, apart from Bitcoin will be out there? I'm not asking for specific names, I'm asking for an estimation.

I think you can roughly group all altcoin projects into two camps: the "pure" currencies, that are basically value transfer systems and the "blockchain as a service" groups. In both camps, there is a lot of redundancy, so that just a few will survive. I think it is going to be more than just bitcoin, though. BTC and ETH are a realistic scenario, although I's say it would be more like 3-5 value transfer coins plus two BaaS projects, who may have a bunch of different tokens associated with them.

Thoughts?

[mrrtderp]

Let's assume, that in ten to twenty years, blockchain is a word everybody knows like everybody knows the word internet.

Ok, if 'blockchain' becomes that ubiquitous then, like the internet, we'll have more and more alts functioning regionally like ISP's and filling their own niches.

So in my estimation: MOON OR BUST!!

[ttookk]

Let's assume, that in ten to twenty years, blockchain is a word everybody knows like everybody knows the word internet.

Ok, if 'blockchain' becomes that ubiquitous then, like the internet, we'll have more and more alts functioning regionally like ISP's and filling their own niches.

So in my estimation: MOON OR BUST!!

Hmm, I doubt that. Unless, we will see something that is not that common at the moment but might be in the future: Throwaway blockchains, i.e. blockchains that are used for a short period of time for a very narrow purpose and are discarded or archived afterwards.
I'd expect them to be associated to a "motherblockchain", though, so I wouldn't really count them. I wouldn't count things like Iconomi, Blocksafe, SingularDTV and other tokens issued on an already existing blockchain either, for that matter. I expect to see tons of those, but I think there are going to be only a few "motherchains" to build upon.

[BiTZeD]

Ethereum is for sure the one is is unsinkable. Given all what it resisted to, I see no doom for them, ever.

[European Central Bank]

I think we're gonna be surprised how many stick around. I really didn't think most of the stuff that went crazy in 2013 would still be here but it is. the speculative fringe is never ever going away now so I think they'll survive on the margins and keep feeding themselves bullshit pumps.

[yellowish]

Ethereum is for sure the one is is unsinkable. Given all what it resisted to, I see no doom for them, ever.

My doctor told to laugh once a day very good... Thank you for the medicine!

[yellowish]

I think we're gonna be surprised how many stick around. I really didn't think most of the stuff that went crazy in 2013 would still be here but it is. the speculative fringe is never ever going away now so I think they'll survive on the margins and keep feeding themselves bullshit pumps.

Believe at the end there will be a dozen of coins left. Those who invest in Development will survive the market.

Currently there are two serious candidates:

Bitcoin
Gulden

Other on my shortlist, but to my opinion there is not much activities in their community:

Vcash
Bitcoindark
Dash

Ato the end, blockchain payments will stay and grow.

[cryptohunter]

I think we're gonna be surprised how many stick around. I really didn't think most of the stuff that went crazy in 2013 would still be here but it is. the speculative fringe is never ever going away now so I think they'll survive on the margins and keep feeding themselves bullshit pumps.

Yes this is my thoughts on it too. Seems that most never die totally and the ones that seem too can be brought back at anytime?

[European Central Bank]

Believe at the end there will be a dozen of coins left. Those who invest in Development will survive the market.

Currently there are two serious candidates:

Bitcoin
Gulden

I've never heard of gulden.

what makes you think alts are gonna consolidate? I think it's gonna get ever more insane. there's too much temptation to make money out of nothing and too many stupid people who fall for it. there are billions more who are currently untapped.

[marcus1986]

I expect 10-20 Alts will survive long term.

[ttookk]

Believe at the end there will be a dozen of coins left. Those who invest in Development will survive the market.

Currently there are two serious candidates:

Bitcoin
Gulden

I've never heard of gulden.

what makes you think alts are gonna consolidate? I think it's gonna get ever more insane. there's too much temptation to make money out of nothing and too many stupid people who fall for it. there are billions more who are currently untapped.

I don't expect the new alts boom to slow down anytime soon, but I think it will at some point. My reasoning is this:  let's assume, as said before, mass adoption at some point. As soon as the masses start to use blockchain technology, the network effect that is keeping the big coins big at the moment is going to multiply its strength, so much in fact, that new alt projects just won't have any chance, because nobody is going to take them seriously. Sure, some gamblers are going to buy in and there will be yet another bitcoin competitor, as long as bitcoin exists. Do you know how many "facebook contenders" there are? I don't either, but all of them have no chance at the moment. Not because they are worse, some may even have better technology, but people already have facebook. To create something, that is challenging facebooks standing, you'd need to create something that is not just a bit, but way more interesting.

[freshman777]

I expect 10-20 Alts will survive long term.

About that number, yes.

[kiklo]

ZEIT will still be here. 
3 Years old in March 2017.


 

[Spoetnik]

@OP
Define "survive" & "long term"

Survive as in traded for profit on centralized exchanges like Mintpal or McxNOW or Cryptsy ?

[ttookk]

@OP
Define "survive" & "long term"

Survive as in traded for profit on centralized exchanges like Mintpal or McxNOW or Cryptsy ?

I tried in the first post:

To preface this, I'd define "survive" as being at least a few years old, holding steady or rising in value and having no indication of imminent end of the project/blockchain.

[AndyGreen]

I expect 10-20 Alts will survive long term.

Any examples?  5 minimum

[social crypto comunity]

much coin can survive and long term
1 ethereum
2 monero
3 dogecoin
4 litecoin

and newcomer coin
1 Icn iconomi coin
2 antshare coin

[JeffBrad12]

much coin can survive and long term
1 ethereum
2 monero
3 dogecoin
4 litecoin

and newcomer coin
1 Icn iconomi coin
2 antshare coin

Ethereum gives a real evidence be a long term coin, and the hacking cases are not giving an impact for the coin and the price is always kept in their chairs. and be the best coin after bitcoin the mother of the coin....

[altseeker]

Altcoins with hefty funds will continue to exist, I can see 20-30 of them will survive.

[Indrawan77]

I expect more than 10 alt coins can survive for a long term, but the most perfect amount according to me is 5 alt coins, too many coins will weaken all the alt coin, we need a strong coin who can become bitcoin rival and coin that can attract big company to use