There you go again (laughing off his censorship) repeating the same mistake you've said you learned not to repeat. You are again falling into a groupthink because it fits your pre-disposed idolization of gold and passive HODL investment.
FOFOA will ban argumentative people who go after him, LOL. But, I do NOT remember him EVER being a "silver guy", he always way-preferred gold. He does not even like the idea of precious metals diversification (no Ag, no Pt, etc.).
1.
Never follow a person who censors. Because you will surely be falling into an ignorant groupthink.
2. He apparently deleted all my posts, but there are still numerous comments in his archives from my comments in his blog in 2010 and followup comments by his regulars in 2011 referring to me and you can see for example that everything I wrote came true precisely as I said it would:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/02/wendys-open-forum-part-2.html?showComment=1298707848032#c2632150332687079466Does anybody remember Shelby, the "silver evangelist"?
I still visit his forums occasionally in order to gain insights into the current thinking of the silverbug fraternity. Here are some snippets, from recent posts by Shelby in his silver forum, that you might find interesting (my emphasis):
"I am looking for 35 gold/silver ratio, before I take profits in silver (into gold), so roughly $45 and $1575."
"You could take some profits around 40 ratio, e.g. $35 and $1400, looking for a pullback to $30, but I think that is very risky."
"We can squeeze a little bit more out of silver before we run to gold"
Shelby on Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:48 pm
http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/t33p300-silver-as-an-investment#4244"So that is why I will start selling SOME (not all) silver for gold around $39+, then look to repurchase in the high $20s or low $30s."
You might also like to tune into David Morgan talking to Jim Puplava from the 5.00 minute mark here:
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0225-1.asxI listened to the whole broadcast. If you are looking for a contrarian view on silver in the short term (both men are long term bulls) it would be well worth your time.
February 26, 2011 at 12:10 AM
Note the above comment was essentially referring to
my 2010 public prediction for silver to peak at $45 then fall to $26 which came true in 2011.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/09/once-upon-time.html?showComment=1315847853994#c4273984744101237708Wow, thanks, Fofoa. A timely post addressing the "overlord theory" of Shelby and others I recently asked about. Especially liked this part:
"And those of you that incessantly argue that gold is just one of many commodities—an asset like any other that, when push comes to shove, will ultimately be liquidated in favor of symbolic token currency units—need to explain how the monetary plane, insolvent at today's low prices, will maintain any grip on reality at even lower prices. The fact is it can't. And that's why you can only maintain your arguments with fantastic stories of modern day all-powerful overlords enslaving the serfs to their graves. But unfortunately, that's not how a diverse global economic ecosystem actually works."
@ Costata,
Will check out Bron's reasoning, thanks for the heads up, that's what I was looking for was some more specific arguments on taxation. Interesting that you have tied up with Shelby before.
...
I am very familiar with Fofoa's thoughts on taxation, and even mentioned them in my post, but there are a lot of other smart people here (in case you haven't noticed through your ego-colored glasses) whose opinions I highly respect.
Taxation will remain a major issue facing holders of gold, whether you have the knowledge to weigh in on it or not. If gold gets the huge revaluation that Fofoa and others think it will, we will be glad to pay the taxes. However, if it merely remains a negative correlation to inflation, then the combination of a)the loss of purchasing power at conversion back to the prevailing currency; and b)taxes render it a losing proposition (but a lower net worth is still better than zero net worth).
September 12, 2011 at 10:17 AM
The above comment is referring to the criticism of gold I had leveled in this
extremely popular published article I wrote (45,716 reads as of today).
I was warning about the coming confiscations via taxation back in 2010, way before Armstrong started writing about it.
The problem for gold holders is that if gold rises from $1000 to $5000, thus $5000 only buys what $1000 used to buy, and the USA capital gains tax rate is unchanged at 28% (or more likely increased significantly), then gold holders will actually lose purchasing power.
Those idiots at FOFOA's censored corral can't even do basic arithmetic.
What is also likely is that gold will be declared a source of funding for terrorism, and thus anyone who can't show a trail of where the income came from to buy the gold, and convince the authorities that it was no drug money or other form of money laundering or terrorism, then the gold will be confiscated. And with the rule of law collapsing, the authorities can declare it what ever they want, regardless of your proof of trail. And the problem you have is where to dispose of your gold, because for sure the authorities will regulate all the dealers to accomplish their expropriation.
FOFOA is off his rocker if he thinks the powers-that-be are going to allow an upward revaluation of gold that rewards decentralized individual millionaire holders of gold. As gold moves up in value (destroying the real economy and velocity of money, because gold does not trade it just sits in a vault), the incentive for the masses to increase taxation and capital controls increase.
And we are now in a digital era where physical barter is becoming more and more futile as digital efficiencies and travel increase.
FOFOA is living in some sort of delusional, fantasy bubble insulated by his censorship. He is going to destroy a lot of investors who have fallen into his groupthink.
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/07/timing-is-everything.html?showComment=1278139629430#c5165311165134739291FOFOA said...
Sincerely,
FOFOA
PS. Huey, go away. I know who you are, your two blogs and on Cash forum. Guess I took the comments off moderate too soon. You are worse than Shelby. If you lost money, you shouldn't have been trading paper gold. I never advised that. Your 5 ugly comments have been deleted.
July 2, 2010 at 11:47 PM
And here is the main thread where my comments were deleted, but we can still read the replies:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/06/old-hyperinflation-question.htmlS said...
@ Shelby
You do edge closer to a revelation in your #2 comment IMHO with the notion that gold will simply go into hiding
The one currency scenario will fail as well which makes gold an almost certain bet as an appreciating store of value. Of course I assume you consider the digital currency as part of the one worlder thesis which facilitiates negative rates as another "tool" of the central bank. It is widely touted, even by the formidable establisment paper FT (Maverikon blog archives). Why shouldn't the gov't have the ability to expropriate your paper overtly isntead of cubtly through inflation?
The notion that one could time a bsuiness sale in the height of hyperinflation and buy a cash flowing business that keeps pace with inflation is a complete joke. First of all, who would sell a business under such conditions as the PV of an ever appreciating currency (unless you run a monte carlo on the end of hyper) even with declining demand would require unlimited capital (then again maybe just gold). And i assume the presumption is that the seller has already lined up another business to invest those deflating profits that turbocharges their "return." Then again there is always the centrally planned stock market. If the scenario you paint is the right one, why not buy out of the money calls (LEAP) on the S&P and avoid the operating risk (as Armstrong contends). Hell, use that as a tax planning strategy to hedge your cap gains risk for Pms owned.
Any move to institute a punative tax as remedy will only exacerbate fiat leakage to alt stores of value. Why is it that when the banks say a tax on capital will simply be passed on to consumer the same logic isn't applied to POG? People aren't buying gold as a tax arb against paper. That afterall is the point. (as an aside Barter would skyrocket and the black market would explode - econ 101 -think illegal drugs which the US gov't itself pegs in the hundreds of billions)
June 11, 2010 at 10:07 AM
The comment above is thought provoking (i.e. that price of private assets will rise accordingly to offset any rise in taxation), except the capital that rushes into gold will be expropriated because it is tangible and can't be disposed without the authorities knowing it, because there won't be any more physical black markets (or you won't want to regularly trade in them because you become a marked man).
Instead the capital that rushes into anonymous crypto-currencies will survive.
raptor said...
Shelby @
Read your link.. you've never lived in socialistic country, so you don't know..
But let me tell you there is black market which gov. can't control.. and whatever they invent there will always be.
In my country no one could have a company ... everybody was a gov. worker in a sense.
But still 90% of the ppl were doing services to each other w/o paying taxes and getting their pay in cash or barter or service.
Not many ppl knew about gld/slv but everybody knew about Dollars and Marks.
One more thing it was illegal to have them unless you are working related job like outside of the country and so on..
but still many ppl had Dollars and Marks.
And the most interesting part of all official exchange rate with the dollar was 1:1, but on the black market it was 3:1 (i.e. 3 times more expensive).
My point is whatever is money will be traded on the black market if pushed hard with high taxation or illegal.
So ppl not exchanging "money" in the black market if overtaxed or whatever is a fairy tale.
Of course if gld/slv are not perceived as money then they will not be traded.
But that is another point.
June 14, 2010 at 4:08 PM
The comment above is the usual genre of category (taxonomy) error people make.
He is comparing the USA or Europe (where we investors are) to a situation where a small country destroyed its currency (or capital controls) and the people chose to use an reliable external country's currency, e.g. US Dollars.
The people in the USA and Europe are not going to abandon the dollar and euro, not until the authorities declare a monetary reset.
Thus there won't be any widespread, physical blackmarket in the USA or Europe! If you do find some oddballs to trade your gold with outside of the regulated dealers, then these will most likely be littered with scammers knowing that you are in a desperate situation and who want to separate you from your gold (even follow you back to your house to get all of it).
We are not headed into a period of hyperinflation and abandonment of fiat currencies! We are headed into massive deflation and a huge rise in kidnapping, crime, and the collapse of rule of law.
These idiot goldbugs are delusional!
tdfxman said...
Shelby
This is great. I have some gold but have always thought FOFOA's idea of "freegold" was never ever going to happen. It implied WAY too much freedom for the sheep. Meritocracy coming is a laughable joke.
Is the link you provided the main place you post, I have not read it all yet. Great stuff that rings so true to me.
With just seeing it just now, I would echo the question of where did the 20% come from? Is that just the carrot to get out of hyper-inflation? TPTB will say here is some new fiat and you will EARN 20% interest and that is what kills the black market since there is no interest earning there.
Your posts seem so much more about reality and how the world has been working, and how you predict it to work, than this freegold utopia of how things SHOULD work.
thanks
June 14, 2010 at 7:36 PM
