My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;)

[exstasie]

Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228812.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228941.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229120.0

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

[dragonvslinux]

Everyone is getting so bearish!

I'm still bullish, more bullish than I was at $10K that's for sure. Probably because everyone is getting very bearish and ready to panic sell by the looks of it 

[criza]

As the price of Bitcoin rise and falls everyday this month of February, the number of causes it might indicate is a lot, we can't really limit ourselves with two choices only. But, by observing the past movement in the price or standing of Bitcoin, as it had reached its highest record for this year, we could conclude that a lot of holders have sold their Bitcoin because of the pump in the price of $11,500 value. On the other hand, the presentation of supply and demand for the Bitcoin price is great as it shows the rise and fall in the standing of Bitcoin.

Panic sellers or not, we should expect a comeback for the price of Bitcoin especially, when the halving event is certainly coming closer each day.

[El duderino_]

Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_- 

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228812.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228941.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229120.0

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

I'm always bullish 

But indeed people sometimes switching there minds to fast ....

Hope non are gonna sell the imminent bounce... the one that doesn't look back 

[exstasie]

Everyone is getting so bearish!

The majority polled in the WO expect <$8,000. Lots of Masterluc bear cubs in there.

Some fresh new bearish threads in the last couple days too:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228812.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228941.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229120.0

I'm feeling contrarian. We rallied from the mid-$6Ks to the mid-$10Ks then retraced 50% and consolidated around the 200-day MA. That doesn't seem overly bearish to me.

I need more evidence before assuming it's time to sell the bounce.

I'm always bullish 

But indeed people sometimes switching there minds to fast ....

Hope non are gonna sell the imminent bounce... the one that doesn't look back 

A lot of people will. It's inevitable, that's how markets work. They build up all this fear and panic during temporary downtrends, so when the reversal occurs everyone is left in disbelief. Then they keep waiting and waiting for the price to drop but it never does.

Then FOMO kicks in.

The important thing is not to get swept up in all this emotion, fear, greed. And also this:

Never sell all your BTC. Always keep a stack in cold storage.

I respect profit taking; I'm a trader after all. Just don't forget that golden rule. The potential upside of BTC is limitless and we're on the ground floor. Our children and grandchildren will talk about these opportunities we had today. Put some coins aside for their sake.

[tokeweed]

^  What about now?  Where are the bull BTC maxis?  Seriously tho...  I hate to be right in this instance.  But yeah DCB's all around coming guys.  -_-

[fabiorem]

I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

[Wilhelm]

I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff....

[fabiorem]

I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff....

Really? Then why the italian government turned a entire region into a prison?
Its just a flu virus, known for decades. They are computing every death from pneumonia as part of the "pandemic".

[Wilhelm]

I said we are in a bear market. You keep selling hopium, saying that the profit was 100%+ from 3k, but how many bought at 3k? What about those who bought at 6k, 9k, 12k? What about those who have families to feed and were in DCA, buying every week, regardless of price?

Now you are going to blame the fake pandemic on this dump, to sell more hopium. This fake pandemic is the beginning of a global police state, and the whales who sold themselves to paper speculation will dump their bitcoins.

The pandemic is very much "not a hoax"
It might not be as bad as people expect  but it is a worldwide epidemic.
It has nothing to do with a police state ....

Stop smoking bad stuff....

Really? Then why the italian government turned a entire region into a prison?
Its just a flu virus, known for decades. They are computing every death from pneumonia as part of the "pandemic".

1)
Quarantine is not a prison. It's a request to stay home to stop the spread. It's not to suppress the people, it's to stop them dying.
A lot of peope have self-quarantined. Most can work from home anyways....

2)
It's not "just a flu"...

Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%
Corona has a fatality rate is 6.9% based on the Chinese numbers.... which is 690x worse than the flu.

3)
Where did you hear this? This is simply not true...

4)
So please inform yourself....

Here is a good source of live data
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[tokeweed]

Here we go...  Is it the much awaited reversal or a dead cat bounce?  Anybody's guess is as good as mine.  If a guy pointed a gun on my head and I had to choose.  Sorry sorry but it'll be the latter.

[exstasie]

Here we go...  Is it the much awaited reversal or a dead cat bounce?  Anybody's guess is as good as mine.  If a guy pointed a gun on my head and I had to choose.  Sorry sorry but it'll be the latter.

The reaction about the 200-week MA suggests a historic V-bottom. Coinbase had its highest weekly volume on record.

It may technically be a dead cat bounce but like David I have doubts the next attempt down will actually yield a lower low.

It's not "just a flu"...

Flu has a fatality rate of 0.1%
Corona has a fatality rate is 6.9% based on the Chinese numbers.... which is 690x worse than the flu.

No way, the original estimates were way overblown just like with the swine flu.

The overall fatality rate among symptomatic cases was 1.4% in Wuhan. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html

When we can better account for asymptomatic cases, I expect the rate to be revised south of 1%. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/what-is-coronavirus-how-did-it-start-and-what-is-the-mortality-rate

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower.

[tokeweed]

^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.

[exstasie]

^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.

Sure, trading in the $5,000s now is like trading in the $200s in 2015. BTCUSD was extremely bearish from Q1-Q3 2015 in any longer term classical TA sense.

In the same way, the recent drop from $10K was quite bearish and it still feels like the bottom could fall out any time now. Will it? Stay tuned and find out. The high volume V-bottom off $3,850 tells me we may be in another 2015-like accumulation period. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

[adaseb]

It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

I don't think we will go from $8K to $3.4K in a day or so of trading however if the dow30 and sp500 get another nasty -10% day then most likely so will bitcoin. Currently the numbers are going up exponentially and people honestly are fearing for the worst. So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

[exstasie]

It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

It does look that way. Technicals and fundamentals are both pointing down. The pre-market futures open and the failure of the US stimulus bill has really set the tone for next week.

So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

Scary headlines on that front:

Michigan sees 2,100% increase in unemployment claims

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard expects that by April the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% in February to 10.6% — with 12 million more unemployed than the 5.9 million total from last month — a 203% spike.

[tokeweed]

^  So that means (he thinks) it could start going sideways.  I don't think a lot of traders are too excited getting back in after that huge break down from 8k to 4k.  Lol.  They could go short tho.

Sure, trading in the $5,000s now is like trading in the $200s in 2015. BTCUSD was extremely bearish from Q1-Q3 2015 in any longer term classical TA sense.

In the same way, the recent drop from $10K was quite bearish and it still feels like the bottom could fall out any time now. Will it? Stay tuned and find out. The high volume V-bottom off $3,850 tells me we may be in another 2015-like accumulation period. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

The bottom's in, sure...  But here's what I'm thinking (And I got a lot of flak from this.  Lol)...  BTC could also happen like the Nikkei.  The Nikkei hasn't made new highs in three decades.  What do you think?

[exstasie]

Sure, trading in the $5,000s now is like trading in the $200s in 2015. BTCUSD was extremely bearish from Q1-Q3 2015 in any longer term classical TA sense.

In the same way, the recent drop from $10K was quite bearish and it still feels like the bottom could fall out any time now. Will it? Stay tuned and find out. The high volume V-bottom off $3,850 tells me we may be in another 2015-like accumulation period. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

The bottom's in, sure...  But here's what I'm thinking (And I got a lot of flak from this.  Lol)...  BTC could also happen like the Nikkei.  The Nikkei hasn't made new highs in three decades.  What do you think?

I don't see enough evidence yet to discard the stock-to-flow model or this historic EW count.

Anything is possible though. We may in fact have entered a bearish super-cycle, as xxxx123abcxxxx points out. His chart indicates price, not time, but it could theoretically last a decade or more.

I don't really agree with that assessment but I also can't discard the possibility.

[adaseb]

It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

It does look that way. Technicals and fundamentals are both pointing down. The pre-market futures open and the failure of the US stimulus bill has really set the tone for next week.

So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

Scary headlines on that front:

Michigan sees 2,100% increase in unemployment claims

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard expects that by April the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% in February to 10.6% — with 12 million more unemployed than the 5.9 million total from last month — a 203% spike.

I think that there are way too many people who are betting that tomorrows employment data will be horrible and they are shorting the stock indicies or loading up on puts. Currently they are expecting 1,500,000 people filing for unemployment but in California alone I think over 1 million people already filed. When you add the 49 other states its definately going to be a miss.

Now here is the issue. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry knows the numbers are going to be brutal. And they are turning into huge bears expecting the SP500 and US30 to drop to new 54 week lows. What usually happens when the herd is following one direction? Usually the opposite happens.

Sometimes the herd is right like with the airlines crashing and oil crashing however I think tomorrows numbers will be one big bear trap.

[exstasie]

I think that there are way too many people who are betting that tomorrows employment data will be horrible and they are shorting the stock indicies or loading up on puts. Currently they are expecting 1,500,000 people filing for unemployment but in California alone I think over 1 million people already filed. When you add the 49 other states its definately going to be a miss.

It's basically already a fact that BLS unemployment data is going to be horrible. The only question is to what extent it is already priced in.

Now here is the issue. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry knows the numbers are going to be brutal. And they are turning into huge bears expecting the SP500 and US30 to drop to new 54 week lows. What usually happens when the herd is following one direction? Usually the opposite happens.

Any COT data to back that up?

S&P 500 futures just rallied 18% from the lows. The daily gain on Tuesday almost set a new record. Intraday analyst sentiment may have turned bearish but I don't think sentiment is anywhere near as bearish as you make it out to be. Not to mention, sentiment is just like an oscillator. During strong downtrends, the market can sustain fear for long periods of time.

The market is probably due for more relief rallying in the next couple weeks but it isn't going to sustain this week's rate of gains by any means. The market already rallied all week on stimulus deal rumors. You think now that the news is in, the market is going to keep rallying? To where?