Bear appreciation thread!!

[zoolander]

I just couldn't believe that people we attacking those who saying simply unsustainable, never mind calling it a bubble.

I sold coins all the way up from $140, the last going at $250 knowing what was happening was clearly insane. I'd only wish I'd trusted my instincts and sold a bit more. However there is no possibility of any downside for me at this point, so I'll just sit back and enjoy the show for a bit.

[proudhon]

I'm here, I'm here!

[proudhon]

BTW, anyone look at blockchianed recently.  Over 100,000BTCs have appeared on the order book in the last 48hrs.  Gee, who knew there were that many bitcoins out there.  The bid walls just looked so darn big compared to the little tiny supply.  $10m is nothing.  $16m is not enough to support all the bitcoins in the hands of EAs and everyone else who will dump when things look scary.  There are enough bitcoins in the hands of capable and willing people that if things look really bad, they can take us all the way back to the starting point, and I mean sub dollar prices.  And look what it takes given the weakness of the infrastructure built around bitcoin -- a DDoS attack.

[Wuji]

I dont understand.  BTC is a unit.  To be BEARish or BULLish can only be determined when you assign a relative value to a fiat currency.
BTC is an independent thing that has a purpose.  Is anyone bullish or bearish on oxycontin?  For some that 30mg pill is worth the $20 co-pay for 30 of em.  For others, theyll pay $300 for the same 30 (I assume thats the rate).  Oxy serves a purpose and depending on how badly you need that purpose fulfilled dictates the value you attach to it.

BTC serves a purpose too, namely (imho) anonymous (for legal/ethical/taxation purposes), quick and non-reversible payments.  Now if you dont need that purpose fulfilled then yeah, be bearish.  If you like the purpose of BTC, be bullish.  

As I posted in a newbie post, for me BTC represents a sort of "Cayman Island" for the common man.  Think Bit Romney.  Earn / Spend BTC for whatever purpose, legit, or not, and be free from the scrutiny of taxation or big governments eye.  Christ, its practically paypal (but quicker, non-reversable and anonymous).  Itll get mass adoption in time.

Being bearish or bullish is about how you feel about the current price and if it is over or under valued.  If I was a drug dealer selling Oxycontin hell yes I'd be bullish or bearish.  Since I am not I am dealing in commodities, stocks, options and Bitcoins.  Based on their value in my native currency USD I have a bear/bull stance on each of them.

[Cluster2k]

Economy / Speculation / Re: Just woke up and BTC is OVER $134!!??    on: April 03, 2013, 09:47:14 AM

"We hit the irrational exhuberence stage.  Good time to cash in profits and wait for a lower price."

I was a bit early on my call, but still, it's only 10 days ago when I stated we hit the irrational exhuberance stage.  People had another six days to ride the wave and cash out.

[arepo]

... during the first bubble, the prices were not sustainable because the irrational bulls converted all of their fiat to btc and there reached a point where the influx suddenly stopped. this caused a panic and a huge correction, which left many, many bag-holders in its wake.

this time around, the influx of new buyers isn't slowing. people with little to no exposure of bitcoin are rushing to buy simply because the price has been going up, up, up. it's the same psychology, except the scale is much larger and the price is much higher for many more coins. smart money pulls its asks because it sees that the fundamentals are different this time around, and there won't be a huge crash. selloffs are immediately absorbed by new buyers who don't understand the risk of purchasing an asset whose price has made 500% gains in the last year.

[this] ... will inevitably lead to massive profit-taking, predatory speculation, and price volatility.

i could tell that the sentiment was dangerously optimistic way back in February, but in this game of musical chairs everyone was willing to wait a lot longer before the music stopped.

i was told i was a filthy keynesian who hated deflation. (in so many words)

[Richy_T]

Meh, I was happy to concede that things were looking bubbly but many of the bears were calling for an imminent collapse all the way up from single digits and have been wrong more often than they've been right.

Though to be fair, taking out student loans to buy bitcoins is just 

[gizmoh]

Anyone noting the frenzy buying and pumping at gox, orders just fill up at any price just so it move higher and higher, I smell price manipulation.

[notme]

When my next paycheck clears I'll make my normal buy.  DCA for the win.  If it doesn't stay up long I'm unlikely to buy much at those prices.

[ManBearPig]

You sound level-headed, I'll give you some kudos.

I bought on-average way over $20 but made money and coins and goods on the way and am still holding.

The price right now is almost exactly my averaged entry price.

Like others have said: it's the "crash to zero!111" crowd I couldn't listen to.

Or others simply WISHING a crash because they were way too unadventurous.

But why do we have be defined as bullish or bearish, I guess I was and still am both of those things albeit in slightly varying fractions?

Confession: part of me is very relieved at what happened and how it wasn't as worse as it could have been.

We could still see a long tail-off like the 2011 decline but there's plenty of time to exit gracefully in that case.

But things are quicker now. No time to think!

[Ozymandias]

Post to receive my comeupance and continuing to hold for the longest time

[checkers6676]

I'm one of those people you mentioned having put everything I own into BTC. Took equity out of the house, sold a whole range of electronics, even furniture, and put it all in.

edit: I bought in originally at 37 but more at various points all the way to 149. To average it all I'd say my overall buy-in price was 78 originally.
I sold at $237 (on the way down from 266)
Bought at $117 (on the way up from 105)
Sold at 178 (on the way down from 194)
and now I'm prepping to buy all back in in the $70 range. It'll be 100 sometime Monday.

moral of the story: smart bulls always win, i-told-you-so bears dont earn crap. congrats

[Wekkel]

Broken clock thread. I will look forward to the next one in about 12 months. Lucif got this one quite right.

[flaab]

Eventually the bulls are wrong!

[arepo]

I'm one of those people you mentioned having put everything I own into BTC. Took equity out of the house, sold a whole range of electronics, even furniture, and put it all in.

I sold at $237 (on the way down from 266)
Bought at $117 (on the way up from 105)
Sold at 178 (on the way down from 194)
and now I'm prepping to buy all back in in the $70 range. It'll be 100 sometime Monday.

moral of the story: smart bulls always win, i-told-you-so bears dont earn crap. congrats

you dun good, but know you're among few. bears earned a lot more than, say, the bottom 75% of bulls (0 > -x)

[evolve]

moral of the story: smart bulls always win, i-told-you-so bears dont earn crap. congrats

The bears locked in their profits while everyone was still going on about the mythical $1000 bitcoin.....it was the bulls that had to catch a falling knife (and I guarantee there were a lot more losers than winners).

[BitSlut69]

Yes the last two weeks of growth was unsustainable and now we've seen a correction. To say that BTC is going down to sub-dollar levels is foolish.

A correction like this is usually an over reaction, just as the rise was. We're seeing lots of support at $70 - $80 so I think that is the low side and we'll be back around $100 by the end of next week.

I really don't think we'll see BTC below $50 because of this. The worst is behind us and we're still on track for massive growth this year. This is a buying opportunity.

[Qoheleth]

It's good to have people who can keep their heads during huge gains. I appreciate you!

Now that the wind has finally changed, I think I may as well repeat my question from before: proudhon, what on earth was going on with you calling the top over and over? Have you figured out what you were misinterpreting?

[arepo]

It's good to have people who can keep their heads during huge gains. I appreciate you!

Now that the wind has finally changed, I think I may as well repeat my question from before: proudhon, what on earth was going on with you calling the top over and over? Have you figured out what you were misinterpreting?

I did the same thing and I realized I had not calibrated my oscillators for the incredibly large influx of money into the economy. They were screaming overbought, and I was worried that it all would lead to such a speculative bubble, but it really did seem to be on the verge of tipping at many, many points during this insane run-up.

[ManBearPig]

Eventually the bulls are wrong!

All images which don't resemble something we know every detail of very well will resemble each other.

Show a pic of Justin Bieber's face to an alien followed by a pic of Samuel L Jackson and they'll shout - it's the same, it's the same!!!111 (don't try this at home).

Those charts are: an up bit and a down bit. They are certainly not the same.