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 Author Topic: Satoshi's Fortune lower bound is 100M USD(DEBATE GOING ON, DO NOT TWEET!)  (Read 125012 times)
AlphaWolf
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 April 21, 2013, 05:18:26 AM

Let's say you flip a coin 10 times.
You mark a cross on paper if the first 3 flips gives you heads; in this case, if up to the 7th flip you still get heads, you put a circle around the cross you just marked.
Now do this for several billion times, divide the number of circles by the number of crosses. It should be rather close to 1/16. That's the idea.

I think this model has a number of flawed assumptions... but please correct me if I'm wrong:

1.  The difficulty is not constant.  For the first 32,255 blocks the difficulty remained at 1. That's roughly 2^15 of your "crosses".  You'd have to retroactively count which "blocks" of 10 coins had 3 leading "heads", which would reduce the "current number of blocks solved" (or crosses) significantly.  OP based his claim on current blocks solved of all difficulties.

2. SHA256 is a deterministic function - does not produce random output.  Given an infinite set of inputs, it will reduce each to one of 2^256 values.  Over an infinite set of inputs, one might assume the outputs are evenly distributed, but...

3.  There is not an infinite set of inputs.  Based on the block hashing algorithm, there are 80 bytes x 8 = 640 "bits" of coin "inputs" possible.  40 bytes (half) are almost guaranteed to be the same for all miners, and at the same positions.  That leaves 2^320 bits to be toggled "randomly" before being fed into the SHA256 function.  Because half the total input bits are static, the inputs themselves are not evenly distributed.

4.  SHA256 isn't as "fair" as one might assume.  http://www.femto-second.com/papers/SHA256LimitedStatisticalAnalysis.pdf.  I'll admit this paper is above my head... so feel free to take advantage of that and tell me this paper doesn't say what I think it says

5.  The original SHA256 output is again hashed with SHA256.  Therefore the maximum inputs for the final iteration is 2^256, as a best case scenario.  The input was skewed once due to the structure of the block header, skewed again by the imperfect nature of the SHA256 algorithm, and now skewed yet again by a second iteration of SHA256.

6.  Has anyone proven mathematically that each and every value from 0 to 2^256- 1  is actually possible as an output of SHA256?

7.  Has it also been proven that SHA256 can produce all 2^256-1 outputs given only the inputs from 0 to 2^256 - 1?

To me, the OP's claim failed right at #1.  As I said:

C: What is this magical theorem that says "the log base 2 of the number of blocks found is the number of leading 0's that might be found exceeding the network difficulty in a double sha256 hash of an essentially random input"?  I don't think it exists.

"Number of blocks found" != "number of blocks found at X difficulty".  OP was claiming the former, you're claiming the later, which at least makes sense.

For what it's worth, there will always be 2106 blocks solved at a given difficulty before the next is chosen.  That's roughly 2^11.  Within those 2016 blocks, someone found an answer with 12 extra leading 0's.    Assuming completely random inputs (which they aren't) and assuming SHA256 is fair (it isn't) and that a 2nd iteration of SHA256 can still produce all 2^256 outputs (who knows?), it still seems that block 125552 was statistically significant.  And you can't really count very many blocks after those 2106, because the difficulty has been changed again... you're now requiring 4 heads in a row for a cross, but still only 7 for circles, which doubles the probability of a "circle".

Thoughts?

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richard_dein
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 April 21, 2013, 07:37:05 AM

If you escalate to that amount of scrutiny, yes it is far, far from perfect. It is also rather well known that cryptographic objects don't really behave the way theoreticians (and Satoshi) would like them to. I won't be surprised that any hash function or PRNG would behave suboptimally under some kind of test, maybe even a strikingly simple one. Even something like SHA-2147483648 wrapped a thousand times could possibly fail to an almost trivial statistical test. A related quote is "Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin", by von Neumann

In this model SHA-256 is basically assumed to behave like a random oracle, a black box that gives us numbers that are uniformly random. But random oracles are a theoretical impossibility. On the other hand, the security of SHA-256 as the main POW algorithm in the Bitcoin protocol does not really rely on it being a random oracle. Here's a post on StackExchange that briefly tells us a few things: http://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/879/what-is-the-random-oracle-model-and-why-is-it-controversial

Intuitively, the multiplicative difference between 2^12 and (say) 2^16 should outweigh many other factors, although indeed it's hard to be very sure. At least, it definitely outweighs most factors you brought up. It's too big a difference even for the link you gave us.

For #1, while I agree the estimation done by Sergio_Demian_Lerner isn't very good, the conclusion isn't very far off either. Basically you don't need to have a lot of blocks, mined at a difficulty that requires 56 zeros, to demonstrate statistical insignificance of that block with a 67 zeroes. Still assuming the stinky random oracle model, even if you only look at 2^10(=1024) blocks with 56 zeros, well smaller than the number of blocks at a single difficulty, it is a rather large probability (~40%) that one of them has at least 67 zeros.
BitcoinFX
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youtu.be/6NXnxTNIWkc

 April 30, 2013, 01:40:23 AM

Bitcoin without polity! | Get a Gapcoin slice of Mathematically constant π + new world record attempt on 21st Oct. 2018 | "The industry of the integrated spectacle and immaterial command owes me (us all) money." - We do not Forgive. We do not Forget. Expect Revolution Renaissance! for we are all Satoshi now? - youtu.be/G7Z8MMk45U0 - "the multiple and the multiplex!" - Mostly AWOL hunting 4 (Zk-)SNARKS ... youtu.be/Yc18hhM6gUc?t=4m27s - "Beware of Boojum's"!?! - NSFW youtu.be/Wn3d51F1jPE + 21e8 = youtu.be/FoTx6dKNGmc ? lolz - 42/ is the answer - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42_(number)
crazy_rabbit
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 April 30, 2013, 06:58:03 AM

Seems that Bitcoin is a premine scam if true.

I would like to know if any of those premined blocks where touched in front of major crashes. How can I find an answer for this question?

Damn right it's a premine scam! The right thing to do would have been to give everyone a equally fair chance to mine by announcing it far in advance on bitcointalk. Oh, wait a minute........

more or less retired.
franky1
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 April 30, 2013, 04:49:52 PM

its not a scam. your just not the first one to have mined it. i wouldnt say your too late, im just saying your mad for not being in earlier

in 7 years time some noob will come along and say "hang on in 2009-2020 there were millions of people mining bitcoin, theres only 3 million coins left - its been premined"

same as all the gold miners in 2013 are shouting most of the world has been premined. its not the previous miners fault or the egyptian/native americans fault for being the first to find value in gold. its only the complainers fault for not being there in the early days.

so stop complaining and make one simple decision.

join the new economy known as bitcoin or stick with fiat and keep blaming others.

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
Etlase2
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 April 30, 2013, 04:57:27 PM

join the new economy known as bitcoin or stick with fiat and keep blaming others.

False dilemma[/size]

ElectricMucus
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 May 01, 2013, 12:27:05 AM

same as all the gold miners in 2013 are shouting most of the world has been premined.

Less than half of the gold has been mined. Most of it is still in the earth, and that is only including sources currently accessible to us.
Peak gold is believed to be after 2020.
franky1
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 May 01, 2013, 12:40:41 AM

same as all the gold miners in 2013 are shouting most of the world has been premined.

Less than half of the gold has been mined. Most of it is still in the earth, and that is only including sources currently accessible to us.
Peak gold is believed to be after 2020.

most of the WORLD has been mined, Eg geographically there is not one country that has not been searching for gold. never said most of the gold.

but the point is even in the gold mining industry there are a few gold haters saying there is not much left and hating the fact that they have to use excavators to get at it instead of a bucket and spade like in the days of the wild west/victorian era. or earlier

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
ElectricMucus
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God of the code.

 May 01, 2013, 12:55:44 AM

same as all the gold miners in 2013 are shouting most of the world has been premined.

Less than half of the gold has been mined. Most of it is still in the earth, and that is only including sources currently accessible to us.
Peak gold is believed to be after 2020.

most of the WORLD has been mined, Eg geographically there is not one country that has not been searching for gold. never said most of the gold.

but the point is even in the gold mining industry there are a few gold haters saying there is not much left and hating the fact that they have to use excavators to get at it instead of a bucket and spade like in the days of the wild west/victorian era. or earlier

No you are looking for an easy way out.
There is gold everywhere still, it is just not as accessible as before, the mining industry is rather efficient.

Comparing BTC mining to gold just doesn't work out. There is no hubbart peak in bitcoin, just an ever decreasing supply rate.
thejaytiesto
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 April 16, 2015, 02:20:01 PM

Seems that Bitcoin is a premine scam if true.

I would like to know if any of those premined blocks where touched in front of major crashes. How can I find an answer for this question?
Nope, it just means no one cared to mine in the early days because mining was absolutely useless back then (you were mining 0 USD BTC).
killerjoegreece
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 September 11, 2015, 08:50:10 AM

100M USD wow. i think satoshi needs to come out of the closet and do a huge giveaway for the community.

 ★★★ 450+ GREEK★★★TRANSLATIONS ★★★
FAST ★★★ FLAWLESS ★★★ CHEAP ★★★ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1175769.new#new
defconone
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 December 02, 2015, 01:20:50 AM

So can i have a wallet address Satoshi used?
And what program did Satoshi use? CGMiner 0.1?
saturn643
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 December 02, 2015, 03:31:15 AM

So can i have a wallet address Satoshi used?
Get any address used in the coinbase transactions of the first several blocks

And what program did Satoshi use? CGMiner 0.1?
No, that software didn't even exist until much much later. He used Bitcoin Core (actually just called Bitcoin when announced, it was the software that he wrote himself) mining capability to cpu mine.
Vipul982
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 December 02, 2015, 04:22:51 AM

Hi Satoshi,

If this is true, then please send me some 5 to 10 bitcoins :p
..|..|...
see, I didnt recieve any.. Its just a speculation..

But this is an amazing invention of all time, so if he has it then he deserves it
Shova
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 September 30, 2017, 06:00:23 AM

Of course, satoshi tested it first, mined some blocks alone, tested transfers, fees, and sure he did hold.
That's might be one reason for him to keep quite at this time, people would ask about his premine.
By the way 1M BTC would be 4.2 Billion USD, that's a year budget for mongolia.

Anarc Senior
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 November 06, 2017, 01:43:14 AM

Of course, satoshi tested it first, mined some blocks alone, tested transfers, fees, and sure he did hold.
That's might be one reason for him to keep quite at this time, people would ask about his premine.
By the way 1M BTC would be 4.2 Billion USD, that's a year budget for mongolia.

You and I are very late comers 😂-  and,  it would be 7.46 billions USD as of today 11/5/2017 😊.

In my very humble opinion:

1). As some have already pointed out - too much assumptions that Satoshi is in this simply for the money is very disrespectful and insulting to the good gentleman...

2). I wish I own more BTCs - and if I do, I wouldn't worry about the temporary crashes in value of BTC due to the sell off.  That would disregard all the fundamental concepts  of why BTC/ blockchain has become quite successful in the first place...we could use a few crashes from the dump, so average folks like us can afford some more BTC...
amishmanish
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 November 06, 2017, 02:51:48 AM

Of course, satoshi tested it first, mined some blocks alone, tested transfers, fees, and sure he did hold.
That's might be one reason for him to keep quite at this time, people would ask about his premine.
By the way 1M BTC would be 4.2 Billion USD, that's a year budget for mongolia.

You and I are very late comers 😂-  and,  it would be 7.46 billions USD as of today 11/5/2017 😊.

In my very humble opinion:

1). As some have already pointed out - too much assumptions that Satoshi is in this simply for the money is very disrespectful and insulting to the good gentleman...

2). I wish I own more BTCs - and if I do, I wouldn't worry about the temporary crashes in value of BTC due to the sell off.  That would disregard all the fundamental concepts  of why BTC/ blockchain has become quite successful in the first place...we could use a few crashes from the dump, so average folks like us can afford some more BTC...

This maybe completely irrelevant to the original topic but the "waiting for the dump" strategy never works. It never goes down long enough to time it. Now the dips will be much harder to time because of the futures trading announcement. So, the best way is to fix some amount per month. Divide it in a total of 8 days for 2 days/ week.
Buy that whenever there is a dip. Of course put some buy orders at coinbase and other exchanges if you're in the US and can afford to lock that money.
Finally, Hail Satoshi. That must have been some man to leave those BTC untouched all this while and be completely anonymous. We'll never know.

It's Never That Simple!
amishmanish
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 November 06, 2017, 02:55:34 AM

So can i have a wallet address Satoshi used?
And what program did Satoshi use? CGMiner 0.1?
These are the few early addresses:
1BBz9Z15YpELQ4QP5sEKb1SwxkcmPb5TMs contains 11 out of the 32 (Not touched since 14-01-2009)
1BDvQZjaAJH4ecZ8aL3fYgTi7rnn3o2thE contains 1 out of 32 ( Not touched since 12-01-2009)
1DUDsfc23Dv9sPMEk5RsrtfzCw5ofi5sVW contains 10 out of 32 ( Not touched since 12-01-2009)

Here's a link to an awesome topic about Satoshi's and Hal Finney's first transaction: (You'll have to scroll up as the link i found from my post history will only take you to my post)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2346992.msg23932789#msg23932789

It's Never That Simple!
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