The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Visionary and Genious

[Sergio_Demian_Lerner]

A  picture is worth a thousand words.

http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/

This obviously contradicts every word GMaxwell and DeathAndTaxes said about mining during the first year.

Best regards,
 Sergio.

[Dabs]

What if he got hit by a bus? (or something with the same result: abandoned 1 million coins.)

[zakoliverz]

Yes, Satoshi Nakamoto is genius. 

[koin]

This obviously contradicts every word GMaxwell and DeathAndTaxes said about mining during the first year.

[Impaler]

Can you go into more depth about this 'ExtraNonce field' and what it is.  Also can you extend your analysis to see other larger miners, the red dots in the graph clearly show similar parallel upward slope trends and should be able to be parsed out into a few more 'entities'.  Also dose this methodology work as a tool after the introduction of mining pools?

How many addresses are utilized in this 'Nonce closure' group and how dose combining it with the conventional closure methods change the picture?  What percentage of the network hash-rate did the entity represent during that period?  If its mining at a steady rate and we know the number of blocks it won it should be simple to determine its hash-power which as you said looks to be steady, is it consistent with a single PC?

[hobbes]

The black lines are steeper than all the red ones. Does that mean "Satoshi"'s computer was faster than all the others?

Also the single red line with varying angle is interesting. Looks like the cpu got into thermal throttling or something.

[rpietila]

"The mystery will be revealed in 3 days from now".

Heh, I was wondering if I needed to start convincing people that I am not satoshi... Now it will not be needed if satoshi's identity can be revealed.

[jimbobway]

An incrementing nonce is more secure but benefits are probably negligible with random nonce.

[hobbes]

Among the black lines in the second half year are some that have a different slope. Some steeper, and some flater. Why do you think these are Satoshi, too?

[Sergio_Demian_Lerner]

Can you go into more depth about this 'ExtraNonce field' and what it is.  Also can you extend your analysis to see other larger miners, the red dots in the graph clearly show similar parallel upward slope trends and should be able to be parsed out into a few more 'entities'.  Also dose this methodology work as a tool after the introduction of mining pools?

How many addresses are utilized in this 'Nonce closure' group and how dose combining it with the conventional closure methods change the picture?  What percentage of the network hash-rate did the entity represent during that period?  If its mining at a steady rate and we know the number of blocks it won it should be simple to determine its hash-power which as you said looks to be steady, is it consistent with a single PC?

The extraNonce fields increments every time the nonce fields (which is 32 bits) overflows, so it's a slow realtime clock, until the application is restarted, in which case it goes back to 1.  

All this questions are very interesting and can be answered with good quite precision.
I´m sure many of the users who frequent the technical forum are completely capable of computing all these metrics.

I offer  the source data sets for anyone interested. For myself, I won't dig into this more for now, since I need do do more urgent work.

Note the X-Axis in the graphs is not time (as it's said). It's the block number (that's a mistake I did yesterday at 4 AM).

That may distort the slope a bit, but almost imperceptibly.

[Sergio_Demian_Lerner]

You stated that Satoshi spent none of his generated coins. So where did the coins come from that Satoshi apparently sent to Hal Finney?

I said that "at eyesight" he has spent none. Obviously there may be imperceptible red dot's between the heavy black lines, and Satoshi probably spent some.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Interesting. Paw prints of the bear ...  

Edit: maybe one could observe ArtForz's legendary mining exploits in those early times with similar analysis.

[Point at Infinity]

You stated that Satoshi spent none of his generated coins. So where did the coins come from that Satoshi apparently sent to Hal Finney?

From the coinbase of block 9

[Impaler]

Among the black lines in the second half year are some that have a different slope. Some steeper, and some flater. Why do you think these are Satoshi, too?

I think its that the peaking of one line coincides with the beginning of the next one so perfectly and they are slope-wise so consistent with trend so far, if they are not the 'black' entity then they have nearly identical hash-rate and the black entity stopped mining at exactly the same moment, very unlikely.

The red lines all have considerable lower slopes so they are clearly on slower machines and their are multiple machines their because the lines occupy the same space on the X axis rather then doing the saw-tooth that the black line dose.  From the looks of it their were 2-3 people who mined a lot slower but at steady rates very early and they actually would mine for considerably longer stretches before shutting down, this probably reflects a lower concern for backing-up their wallets.

[BTC Books]

A  picture is worth a thousand words.

http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/

This obviously contradicts every word GMaxwell and DeathAndTaxes said about mining during the first year.

Best regards,
 Sergio.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.  Whatever, man.  I just don't give a shit about what Satoshi's got, how he got it, or about who he really is, either.

Hey look, Sergio - you're really good at this blockchain analysis stuff.  Better than anyone I've seen in the past three years, anyway (not that I devote a lot of time to quantifying that).

Why aren't you using your skills to do something useful?

For example:  why don't you analyze the recent crash, and separate out all the bitcoin that was used specifically to purposefully harm the bitcoin economy; find out where those bitcoin came from and how they were accumulated; and if the entity(ies) that sold them bought back in or were just cashing out?

And just as an aside that has no impact on anyone else, don't you think MtGox, or one of the big players/speculators with serious money on the line would be willing to pay you pretty well for some verifiable information of that kind?

You might as well be drinking Jolt Cola in your parents' basement - doing what you're doing now.  What good are these skills of yours if you waste them like this?

[Gabi]

Satoshi is Tony Stark

[Sergio_Demian_Lerner]

GMaxwell has found that after  October 2010 (e.g. v0.3.14), clients clear ExtraNonce periodically, so this method would not work for periods dominated with  higher Bitcoin versions

[gmaxwell]

How does this contradict anything at all that I or death and taxes said?  In fact, it seems to __thoroughly__ refute the claim you were making that Satoshi mined alone the first year. Unlike you, however, I'm not going back and editing my posts when people point out that they cannot possibly be correct.

Why do you keep posting all these claims without even bothering to look at the source?

[jackjack]

I am Satoshi

[rpietila]

Why aren't you using your skills to do something useful?

There is a principle in the universe that what can be done, will be done. I don't think we should blame Sergio if he mines public information. Or should we get rid of Julian Assange, too?