Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

[1715048828]

1715048828

[lyth0s]

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Make the purple line have a similar start date as your other two lines, then see how the slope looks...I don't see why you arbitrarily picked a different date for it, unless I'm missing something.

[inca]

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Ah. But then you are simply joining the prices from the post 2011 bubble crash to the beginning of the next run. Doesnt seem that representative to me of overall trend but let us see. i hope you are wrong.

The chart of daily transactions (excluding popular addresses) seems more relevant to me, especially in the context of widening adoption after a recent bubble. Taken together I think we may see some more limited downside before another rip upwards. I am viewing this lull as accumulation time!

[TERA]

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Make the purple line have a similar start date as your other two lines, then see how the slope looks...I don't see why you arbitrarily picked a different date for it, unless I'm missing something.

I chose it only because it has a lot of contact points.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

LTC on the move! 

[TERA]

LTC on the move! 

I know that mtgox was removed from the thread title, but it still has "BTC/USD".

[threecats]

LTC is closer to thread than the twenty pages of philisophical ranting about the true nature of man ...

[Bagatell]

LTC/BTC FTW 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

fail

[dreamspark]

Total bid sum on stamp down to just over $11m Weve been loosing about a million a day off the books for the last week. I know its not represantative of much but it gives a general idea of how many people are placing bids to stop the drops.

[dreamspark]

Has blockchain.info been down for a long time?

Yes its been down for a few hours due to a database issue.

[magicmexican]

Goxcoin pump?

[Zapffe]

The bitcoin nutcases here can only comprehend litecoin when it's time to buy at the top.

[TERA]

The altcoin nutcases can't comprehend that the China craze is over and that most Chinese volume is now fake. Regardless, I've been buying small increments for a while now because of the charts.

[Zapffe]

The altcoin nutcases can't comprehend that the China craze is over and that most Chinese volume is now fake. Regardless, I've been buying small increments for a while now because of the charts.

Fake or not, but there has been a rise, and there will be more of this rise. All while BTC has been dropping and will be dropping. And all of this was easily predictable couple of weeks ago. Opening new markets with decent volume, is THE reason for the price to rise. But I can see the future already, how the bitcoin nutcases are crying how "everyone are stupid for buying LTC not BTC".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[arepo]

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared!

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...

I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.

Looks like you are turning out to be correct; however, at the time that I wrote, the movement was only in its budding stages.  Also, I do NOT claim to be any expert, so I remain curious why you felt it necessary to engage in patronizing... Anyhow, thanks for the fairly detailed response...

apologies for the patronizing tone. i was just correcting an error in judgment where i saw one. i tend to be more pedantic than is socially acceptable sometimes, but you'll always get detailed explanations that way 

That was nice dump.  

caught me by complete surprise, i didn't think the first small move down to $620 was significant at all

Did you put your money where your mouth is?

sure did i hope my subscribers did too; the newsletter i issued just yesterday morning called for a bounce off of the support at $605.

[arepo]

Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.

Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline?

Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose.

I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012.

Make the purple line have a similar start date as your other two lines, then see how the slope looks...I don't see why you arbitrarily picked a different date for it, unless I'm missing something.

I chose it only because it has a lot of contact points.

haha stop with your objective TA! it's scaring the bulls

you make a decent point, TERA, but most of these formulations are working (whether consciously or not) with the other magic assumption that BTC prices never return to less than the previous ATH after a new ATH, a paradigm which similarly can be violated at any future point but which has held up so far...

[mah87]

price is OBVIOUSLY coming back to 100$