Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Sounds good, but why put the closing price in the formula? You could use  the  geometric mean of L and H
instead, namely m = sqrt(H*L).  Then your indicator would be
   d = log10(H/m) = log10(m/L) = (log10(H)-log10(L))/2 = log10(sqrt(H/L))
That is simply the half-width of the [L,H] interval in log scale. 

A fair point. In the end, it shouldn't make too much difference, it's more just a way to scale fluctuations. But yes, the current price should not have an effect so I'll probably switch over to the geometric mean.

To make the number easier to understand you could convert it back from log scale to linear,
namely use D = 100(10^d - 1) = 100(exp(ln(10)*d) - 1).
That is simply he percentual increase of H relative to m (or of m relative to L).

The reason I use log is that I wanted to accentuate smaller changes. The percentage thing is actually just an arbitrary thing to bring the numbers closer to 0 (multiplying by 100 then logging is just the same as adding 2 in base 10, of course).

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[JayJuanGee]

Yeah following my predicted correction to $550-590 here: http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

My prediction thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871

Odd that we don't see you here all the times you guess wrong...

When did I guess wrong? That is my first prediction thread ever as far as I know...It's also the first time I've published my opinion online (GeekCipher).

Perhaps my post wasn't exactly about price prognostication? I think what you're up to is generally obvious but I will reserve a more scathing post, i.e., give you rope. You could just be a burgeoning entrepreneur hoping to support his League Of Legends pastime, right?

KS:   I like the way you nail the sentiment in your line of thought b/c the reality of the matter is that there is NO real good reason for anyone to come to this thread (or any other BTC thread) and to brag about some kind of superficial "I told you so" prediction - whether the guy is correct or NOT. 

IN this regard, there are BTC and alt coin predictions all over the place, and some of them are going to be spot on, others are going to be in the ballpark and others are going to be way the fuck out in never, never land.  Whatever, the outcome of a prediction, NONE of us really appreciate any I told you so tone, unless such tone is woven into some kind of attempt at more meaningful discussion.

[Richy_T]

So as I mentioned, I'm thinking of dropping a volatility index in with ChartBuddy's posts. It's fairly simple so far, it is the base 10 log off the percentage of high-low against closing price ( log(100*(high-low)/price ). This would only be once per day at 3pm (when the NY market closes). Here is a sample with a few arbitrary currencies (price, high, low, index). Prices are from Bitstamp. Thoughts?

Code:

GBPUSD 1.6573 1.6648 1.6547 -0.215079756574918
EURUSD 1.3915 1.3943 1.3880 -0.344142661216467
JPYUSD 0.0099 0.0099 0.0098 0.00436480540245543
UAHUSD 0.1024 0.1041 0.1024 0.22014896473846
BTCUSD 612.72 612.72 591.13 0.546990585818375

Gotta put the ruble in there, no?  Especially with all the world events... and also LTC... ... and Doge (just kidding)...

I have uah

It's straightforward to add additional currencies. This next phase is for integration.

[fcmatt]

was 100% in ltc and sold at 0.03185 back to 40%ltc 60%btc.

how about you? how much ltc to keep?

I kept 30% ltc as I am unclear if ltc will pop past it's last high.
I feel it will go up but I think the chinese learned their lesson a bit with bitcoin. Meaning they are more careful now. I will be shocked to see litecoin at 40+ and if I do I will sell wherever I can at that point.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah I skimmed over and read it wrong.
I wouldnt worry about having your average at $685  we'll be back there before two months, its the people waiting to break even on their $1200 coins that may have to wait a while.

I's imaging most that actually have $1200 coins are mostly just happy that they are out of Gox.

I agree with you.

Yet, another point about having $1,200 coins is NOT any problem with the person but a problem with their investment strategy.

Several times, I have mentioned that I started investing in BTC at right around $1200, but certainly, I recognized the extreme bull run at that particular moment... and who the fuck knew whether it would stop, at that time.  Anyhow, I was scared to go in too heavily, so even though at that moment, I had about $20,000 to invest into BTC.  I started out by only investing $1,500, and then continuing my investment thereafter with a form of dollar cost averaging.

Anyhow, my point is that at the $1,200 price point, the market did NOT seem to suggest that balls to the wall investment strategy would have been good at $1,200... but still, even then, there were enough BTC fundamentals that BTC could have gone to $2,000 or even $5,000 and rested there for a while......

I guess part of my point is that an investor can get really rich or poor from an ALL IN approach... but, surely I remain of the thinking that I am too chicken shit for that... unless, I have some kind of insider information... ...

[billyjoeallen]

LTC is closer to thread than the twenty pages of philisophical ranting about the true nature of man ...

The true nature of man is irrelevant. If man is basically good, then no monopoly government is necessary. If Man is basically evil, then a monopoly government is too dangerous, because politicians, bureaucrats and cops are men too.  

[JayJuanGee]

When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week?  two weeks?  month?  and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.   

[fcmatt]

When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week?  two weeks?  month?  and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.   

right on man. there is a crap ton of LTC out there waiting to be sold since people missed the bus last time and did the math.
what goes up must come down.

[JorgeStolfi]

I just thought of creating my own coin called UlimateCoin or UltraCoin or UtmostCoin or etc..

Then sit back and enjoy watching the general confusion whenever people use the acronym "UTC".  

You´re too late:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=413978.0

DARN! 

[PoolMinor]

For your listening enjoyment to help you "see" things clearer. Fnord!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h2mJnvRbZ8

[JayJuanGee]

LTC is closer to thread than the twenty pages of philisophical ranting about the true nature of man ...

The true nature of man is irrelevant. If man is basically good, then no monopoly government is necessary. If Man is basically evil, then a monopoly government is too dangerous, because politicians, bureaucrats and cops are men too.  

Even though the nature of man was somewhat woven into parts of our more than 50 scattered pages of discussion of such topics, nature of man was NOT really the essence of the side track... if we should call it a side track....   I think that we were mostly focused around the extent to which government is necessary in a future society which hinged upon questions regarding whether government served any meaningful purpose that would justify receiving taxes whether voluntarily or by force.  Surely, some posters were weaving in other topics as well and even deviating from the deviation... and possibly even I was guilty of such..... especially when from time to time my own human nature was put into question... ... .......... It's all good, no? 

[JayJuanGee]

When China started to buy BTC the price have risen hard so what should we expect for LTC?

Litecoin over 50$ soon.

Define, soon. week?  two weeks?  month?  and will it parallel BTC or break from BTC.. .that makes a difference, no?

I am thinking that if LTC goes to $50 within the next month or two and breaks somewhat with BTC to anywhere in the .07 to .1 territory, then I will sell my LTC holdings at that point... unless there is some breaking news that changes the fundamentals of LTC as compared with BTC in some kind of way.   

Are you blind?? It's written on their page... they will add it on 19.3.2014 at 2pm (chinies time) aka tomorow.

I will admit that I do NOT always see too clearly; however, it is my sense that the question in front of us within this thread of the conversation does NOT concern when LTC is put into any exchange (in china or wherever that may be) - even though that factor seems to be driving the current price uptick.   

From my reading, which could possibly be wrong, the question in front of us, in this line of the thread, was concerning when LTC would go over $50, if at all.   Hope that helps to put us generally on the same braille.

[GameStarter]

50$ soon = short term = <3 months

[mmitech]

wow, dat wall... much profit

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

wow, dat wall... much profit

It's just moved up to 19.8 now.... that $850,000 buy bid keeps getting left behind.
Someone hoping to buy a dump that just isn't coming. Yet.

[mmitech]

also this

[Krabby]

That LTC volume though...

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

wow, dat wall... much profit

It's just moved up to 19.8 now.... that $850,000 buy bid keeps getting left behind.
Someone hoping to buy a dump that just isn't coming. Yet.

Just hit $20 and the $850,000 wall has moved up to match.... wow

[adamstgBit]

its official LTC is bubbling up!

[Krabby]

its official LTC is bubbling up!

Do you have the pin?