Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

5 and 20BTC buys with 1.5$ slippage, seems like people desperately want to keep the price high

LOL, it's just a matter of time.

Even without the latest fuckup by MtGox it was only a matter of time anyway

Pretty much. I'm now even more certain of a bear market. Thinking about it, there are two scenarios:

1) MtGox is insolvent, and a LOT of fiat money goes down the drain along with a lot of Bitcoins. Faith in the Bitcoin market is shattered, no big fish will be buying at exchanges again for years until an established player decides to deal with it, if ever. Price collapses.

2) MtGox is solvent, and a lot of fiat money flows out of MtGox once it is possible again. Some of the coins flow to Bitstamp. People realize they bought based upon nothing, and sell for the same reason. Price collapses.

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[N12]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

[gizmoh]

5 and 20BTC buys with 1.5$ slippage, seems like people desperately want to keep the price high

LOL, it's just a matter of time.

Even without the latest fuckup by MtGox it was only a matter of time anyway

Pretty much. I'm now even more certain of a bear market. Thinking about it, there are two scenarios:

1) MtGox is insolvent, and a LOT of fiat money goes down the drain along with a lot of Bitcoins. Faith in the Bitcoin market is shattered, no big fish will be buying at exchanges again for years until an established player decides to deal with it, if ever. Price collapses.

2) MtGox is solvent, and a lot of fiat money flows out of MtGox once it is possible again. Some of the coins flow to Bitstamp. People realize they bought based upon nothing, and sell for the same reason. Price collapses.

Totally agree on Event 1.

Event 2 is not so correct.
 "People realize they bought based upon nothing" What has changed? What would they realize now?  That Gox is not a professionally run exchange?They will just move to other exchanges.
Coins can flow and already flown to bitstamp.
We will still be in a bear market until economic crisis deepens or other good news for the coin pop up.  

[ardana123]

How the fuk would gox become insolvent... They're sitting on a goldmine of trading fees alone. You guys really need to stop thinking the worst possible scenarios, I personally think Gox isn't as bad as you guys make it seem. Yes, they have problems, but that's to be expected of an online exchange operating in a novelty area like bitcoin...

[N12]

Event 2 is not so correct.
 "People realize they bought based upon nothing" What has changed? What would they realize now?  That Gox is not a professionally run exchange?They will just move to other exchanges.
Coins can flow and already flown to bitstamp.
We will still be in a bear market until economic crisis deepens or other good news for the coin pop up.  

Price discrepancy of ~10% on MtGox vs. Bitstamp would vanish. Some are buying on MtGox and withdrawing Bitcoin because they are panicking over their solvency. Once it becomes clear they aren't insolvent, that would change as those people move back to USD.

[420]

who has used ripples to withdraw from bitstamp USD?

[Coinseeker]

How the fuk would gox become insolvent... They're sitting on a goldmine of trading fees alone. You guys really need to stop thinking the worst possible scenarios, I personally think Gox isn't as bad as you guys make it seem. Yes, they have problems, but that's to be expected of an online exchange operating in a novelty area like bitcoin...

GOX is doomed.  The sob stories are going to be classic, as millions evaporate to fund the retirement of Gox executives.

[samson]

How the fuk would gox become insolvent... They're sitting on a goldmine of trading fees alone. You guys really need to stop thinking the worst possible scenarios, I personally think Gox isn't as bad as you guys make it seem. Yes, they have problems, but that's to be expected of an online exchange operating in a novelty area like bitcoin...

LOL, I was making a business plan 20 years ago and I was talking about worst case scenarios and the 'advisor' I was speaking to told me that I shouldn't really think along the lines of a worst case scenario. He was an idiot.

You should always plan for the worst but work towards and hope for the best.

[gizmoh]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

This statement screams cash flow issues.
Why limit to $1milliion USD per day ? and not like 100 wires per day? if they are having issues with overload of request,they should limit the request and not the amount.

[Coinseeker]

who has used ripples to withdraw from bitstamp USD?

No one, since it's not possible.

[solex]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

This statement screams cash flow issues.
Why limit to $1milliion USD per day ? and not like 100 wires per day? if they are having issues with overload of request,they should limit the request and not the amount.

Absolutely. And long delay problems with euro withdrawals are also strange as the gox notice specifies USD only

[ardana123]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

This statement screams cash flow issues.
Why limit to $1milliion USD per day ? and not like 100 wires per day? if they are having issues with overload of request,they should limit the request and not the amount.

Because that's the limit imposed by their bank maybe?

[billington.mark]

How the fuk would gox become insolvent... They're sitting on a goldmine of trading fees alone. You guys really need to stop thinking the worst possible scenarios, I personally think Gox isn't as bad as you guys make it seem. Yes, they have problems, but that's to be expected of an online exchange operating in a novelty area like bitcoin...

+1. People seem to be very quick to criticize even though they couldn't develop a better trading engine themselves. Thats not even taking into account the fact that banks seem to be taking a close look at exchanges bank accounts and causing issues on that front as well. Once the dust settles after the next couple of weeks, things should pick up.

[billington.mark]

Do we even know whats going on over the next 2 weeks? gox moving to a new bank? or just resolving issues with their current bank?

[gizmoh]

Event 2 is not so correct.
 "People realize they bought based upon nothing" What has changed? What would they realize now?  That Gox is not a professionally run exchange?They will just move to other exchanges.
Coins can flow and already flown to bitstamp.
We will still be in a bear market until economic crisis deepens or other good news for the coin pop up.  

Price discrepancy of ~10% on MtGox vs. Bitstamp would vanish. Some are buying on MtGox and withdrawing Bitcoin because they are panicking over their solvency. Once it becomes clear they aren't insolvent, that would change as those people move back to USD.

Right but price won't collapse as you put it, panic and double digits are common place.

[wonkytonky]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

This statement screams cash flow issues.
Why limit to $1milliion USD per day ? and not like 100 wires per day? if they are having issues with overload of request,they should limit the request and not the amount.

Because that's the limit imposed by their bank maybe?

it doesnt make much sense to limit the amount of money..    banks transfer billions a day

[N12]

Event 2 is not so correct.
 "People realize they bought based upon nothing" What has changed? What would they realize now?  That Gox is not a professionally run exchange?They will just move to other exchanges.
Coins can flow and already flown to bitstamp.
We will still be in a bear market until economic crisis deepens or other good news for the coin pop up.  

Price discrepancy of ~10% on MtGox vs. Bitstamp would vanish. Some are buying on MtGox and withdrawing Bitcoin because they are panicking over their solvency. Once it becomes clear they aren't insolvent, that would change as those people move back to USD.

Right but price won't collapse as you put it, panic and double digits are common place.

Yes, in that case it will just take the "normal" way of bear market collapse over weeks/months I reckon.

[ChartBuddy]

[gizmoh]

<MagicalTux> we will continue processing withdrawals next week, but limit to 1 million USD per day

Congrats to everyone who took a ~10% loss betting against MtGox's solvency.

This statement screams cash flow issues.
Why limit to $1milliion USD per day ? and not like 100 wires per day? if they are having issues with overload of request,they should limit the request and not the amount.

Because that's the limit imposed by their bank maybe?

Then its a new arbitrary rule imposed by their bank, holding our funds hostage,more alarming.
Ask yourself this : Why Gox can't send 2 wires of USD 1 million each per day?

[N12]

MtGox will soon be EmptyGox with loads of fiat money withdrawals initiated next week.