Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

It seems that if we don't hear anything today then we must still wait until close of business Monday before we start to second guess anything.  I'm expecting to have to wait until the very last moment on Monday to find out either way.  That way, any earlier news will be a pleasant surprise but the wait won't drive me mad.  I can wait patiently until Monday night  

A LOT of stuff is announced on Friday with the United States government.....I myself on by end of working day on Friday....the bureaucrats involved..why drag it into next week
its not like they are gonna jump up and make a decision on the Monday after......its gonna pop on Friday.

(then again I know zip)

But you can always use the below slogan.......seems a mantra on how stuff gets done with BTC from block size to ETF announcement...drag it out as long as possible
thus ..heck maybe you are correct (grrrrr) ...Monday would suck...


ETF......soon (tm bfl)

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[becoin]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

[Searing]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

Again i THINK it is gonna get rejected...with the line of 'we have other ETF's in the pipeline we will consider in a timely manner with new fixes/tweaks
as a further waypoint to approval ....(nothing to see here folks...move on)

thus


My view is it will dump to 800 to 900 then recover to ATH withing 2 months...just too much momentum imho ...all the FUD that will result from the Gov't
saying the ETF is dead...will make for amusing antics for that length of time..many press reports for/against/confused/etc....lots of crypto news to your
web based or traditional news outlets..they will rake the $$$ in for a month till it settles imho....(stock up on popcorn and wait for the parade)

on the other hand if the ETF does go thru..it could rise by 25% or more in 1 month and stay there...(again good popcorn supply is essential)
with press news on how it is a new dawn for mankind etc etc instead of FUD it would be PUCK (price upward crypto kickass)

[york780]

15 or 20% drop whe its not accepted. This means good old triple digits again . You guys are acting like its a bad thing.

[K~Ehleyr]

It seems that if we don't hear anything today then we must still wait until close of business Monday before we start to second guess anything.  I'm expecting to have to wait until the very last moment on Monday to find out either way.  That way, any earlier news will be a pleasant surprise but the wait won't drive me mad.  I can wait patiently until Monday night  

A LOT of stuff is announced on Friday with the United States government.....I myself on by end of working day on Friday....the bureaucrats involved..why drag it into next week
its not like they are gonna jump up and make a decision on the Monday after......its gonna pop on Friday.

(then again I know zip)

But you can always use the below slogan.......seems a mantra on how stuff gets done with BTC from block size to ETF announcement...drag it out as long as possible
thus ..heck maybe you are correct (grrrrr) ...Monday would suck...


ETF......soon (tm bfl)

Yeah I understand the why drag it out, but on the other hand, why announce the decision before they have to?  Granted I know nothing about the how the US government works.  In the country where I live, officials never do anything before they absolutely have to, whether top government, the local civil servants or the cashiers on the tills.  And even then they might not do it before the deadline.  Deadlines are only for the little people, afyer all.  So patience is a valuable skill here  

[Searing]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

If it is rejected the price will likely drop to $1 each.

I am willing to buy all of your bitcoins right now for $2 each. Offer expires soon, first come first served.

Ack at $1 each my profit after expenses/elec from mining/etc will be Gasp! $100 usd...your right I should sell it will be a perfect
plan to double my money to $200 in usd...you are brilliant

now to get your bitcoin contact me via pm and I will contact you with my financial friend (a nigerian prince) by the way

he will need 1/2 your BTC as an act of good faith to hold till the sale goes thru (handy he can also do the sale! what are the odds!)

[becoin]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

Again i THINK it is gonna get rejected...with the line of 'we have other ETF's in the pipeline we will consider in a timely manner with new fixes/tweaks
as a further waypoint to approval ....(nothing to see here folks...move on)

thus


My view is it will dump to 800 to 900 then recover to ATH withing 2 months...just too much momentum imho ...all the FUD that will result from the Gov't
saying the ETF is dead...will make for amusing antics for that length of time..many press reports for/against/confused/etc....lots of crypto news to your
web based or traditional news outlets..they will rake the $$$ in for a month till it settles imho....(stock up on popcorn and wait for the parade)

on the other hand if the ETF does go thru..it could rise by 25% or more in 1 month and stay there...(again good popcorn supply is essential)
with press news on how it is a new dawn for mankind etc etc instead of FUD it would be PUCK (price upward crypto kickass)

You have exaggerated the importance of this decision too much! This ETF is not important for bitcoin at all. Irrational exuberance and too much focus on that ETF because there are no other news lately. Price will neither go below $1000 if rejected nor will it go 25% up at once if approved.

[Searing]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

Again i THINK it is gonna get rejected...with the line of 'we have other ETF's in the pipeline we will consider in a timely manner with new fixes/tweaks
as a further waypoint to approval ....(nothing to see here folks...move on)

thus


My view is it will dump to 800 to 900 then recover to ATH withing 2 months...just too much momentum imho ...all the FUD that will result from the Gov't
saying the ETF is dead...will make for amusing antics for that length of time..many press reports for/against/confused/etc....lots of crypto news to your
web based or traditional news outlets..they will rake the $$$ in for a month till it settles imho....(stock up on popcorn and wait for the parade)

on the other hand if the ETF does go thru..it could rise by 25% or more in 1 month and stay there...(again good popcorn supply is essential)
with press news on how it is a new dawn for mankind etc etc instead of FUD it would be PUCK (price upward crypto kickass)

You have exaggerated the importance of this decision too much! This ETF is not important for bitcoin at all. Irrational exuberance and too much focus on that ETF because there are no other news lately. Price will neither go below $1000 if rejected nor will it go 25% up at once if approved.

Just my view. I hope your view is correct. But can't say how you see something ...after the fact...thus my view before the decision comes down to have it down in print...

[Elwar]

[spiderbrain]

Hot diggidy damn that's some bold words right there.

[becoin]

If ETF is rejected how much will be the dip - 3%, 5%, 10%?
How fast will price recover - 5 min, 30 min, 2 hours, a day?

Again i THINK it is gonna get rejected...with the line of 'we have other ETF's in the pipeline we will consider in a timely manner with new fixes/tweaks
as a further waypoint to approval ....(nothing to see here folks...move on)

thus


My view is it will dump to 800 to 900 then recover to ATH withing 2 months...just too much momentum imho ...all the FUD that will result from the Gov't
saying the ETF is dead...will make for amusing antics for that length of time..many press reports for/against/confused/etc....lots of crypto news to your
web based or traditional news outlets..they will rake the $$$ in for a month till it settles imho....(stock up on popcorn and wait for the parade)

on the other hand if the ETF does go thru..it could rise by 25% or more in 1 month and stay there...(again good popcorn supply is essential)
with press news on how it is a new dawn for mankind etc etc instead of FUD it would be PUCK (price upward crypto kickass)

You have exaggerated the importance of this decision too much! This ETF is not important for bitcoin at all. Irrational exuberance and too much focus on that ETF because there are no other news lately. Price will neither go below $1000 if rejected nor will it go 25% up at once if approved.

Just my view. I hope your view is correct. But can't say how you see something ...after the fact...thus my view before the decision comes down to have it down in print...

Price will hardly move beyond +/-5% change in either direction after announcement. Market will forget it in just 2 days whatever this decision is and will focus again on blah-blah like blocksize and hard forks.

[bikerleszno]

If ETH will approve we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

[slap]

If ETH SEC will approve ETF we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

FIFY

[Searing]

If ETH will approve we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

Again no idea on that (or I should say guess). I hope that happens.

But there will be the flip side of FUD that suddenly will flood the waters...the block size problem will jump to the forefront again...China games with exchanges
a mad dash then to fill the FUD vacuum...

admittedly, my view of the ETF NOT getting approved is FUD as well. But in my case I think that 800 to 900 btc is likely if ETF is not approved.

So in a glass half full look see...buy,buy,buy (long term view)

if the ETF goes thru and it goes to 1500 ..there will be FUD on actions (block size and china) that are NOT being touted now with the ETF possibly
going positive...in my view that will be true FUD with an agenda......as a result of the btc price booming....

my view of the ETF not happening is less about FUD and more about how I see it as a chance to buy cheap coin

either way works for me..but how I see it (day before) ..thou to be fair guys...I'm always wrong (i could be just trying to 'trick' the crypto/asic gods)

  

[becoin]

If ETH will approve we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

Only 300 million dollars are expected to enter this ETF during first week if approved. Certainly, not enough to drive bitcoin market cap 20% up.

[kurious]

If ETH will approve we will jump in 1-2 days to 1500$ for sure.

Only 300 million dollars are expected to enter this ETF during first week if approved. Certainly, not enough to drive bitcoin market cap 20% up.

$300m in a week is way more than enough to drive the price up 20%.

The amount of BTC traded is a tiny fraction of the market cap.  That would be huge.

[bikerleszno]

How long more do we need wait for ETF decision ?

[york780]

3 days of fear

[kurious]

If we don't hear anything by the close of today there will be a lot of confusion.

What about Monday?

Well if we haven't heard anything by end of Monday it's auto approval surely. My point is there are a lot of people who think it's today. Therefore,  if we hear nothing by the end of today certain people will think it's been approved.

As far as I am aware it's Monday 11pm GMT deadline. 5-6pm EST  (or there abouts)

Waiting until Monday evening? I'm on GMT.... ugh.

I reckon today.  At least no new fiat can get in until Monday (if it's a 'yes' and comes today).  That said, a 'no' today will mean a deeper dip for the same reason.

Faites vox jeux, mes amis...

Hopefully by 11pm GMT then Kurious. Celebrate of commiserate with a beer my friend.

I won't be in a pub, I will probably be glued to a screen at home, so it will be wine.

A rather fine red, if it's approved.  If not, the white cooking wine from the fridge

[Bitsinmyhead]

Price will hardly move beyond +/-5% change in either direction after announcement. Market will forget it in just 2 days whatever this decision is and will focus again on blah-blah like blocksize and hard forks.

You are way off in your last few comments and if you are interested in making a bet I will give you 2:1 odds on the market not moving 10% up/down after the first 24 hours. Will also make a bet with you on it going below $1000 if not approved. If you really believe what you are writing just PM me and we can set something up.