Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[klee]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€ 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

If this market doesn't go up this week, it'll be the biggest head fake the BTC market has given us in 2013.

Every factor (except perhaps volume) is pointing up.

Yes, this is very suspicious. It's like it can't go up because "everyone" is expecting it to, but it could just be that "everyone" is mostly a bunch of people so unnaturally conditioned to watch Bitcoin developments because of the recent huge growth (6 months ago). The new people aren't here commenting, maybe partly because of new forum membership being disabled (I heard, haven't checked).

I still expect fireworks (upward) this week, or at the outside, next week. It just looks too obvious, too easy to make money...but then again that's how Bitcoin is in general.

[windjc]

Let's look back at the old exponential growth chart:




Note how with the recent consolidation the current run-up now looks almost exactly the same pace as the Jan-March boom, just more volatile. I moved the boom period over to the present run to compare the slopes:




Looks like it's targeting 500 by mid-December. With a dash of bubbly exuberance, we could reach $1000 just in time for Christmas

I don't think we recreate that slope of early this year. It takes more money to push us from $200-$500 than from $30-$250. Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

I do however see us retesting $250 and then after another pull back, retesting $266 in November.  If everything goes Bull, we might test $300 in 2013, but with the holidays coming up, I think we might do that in Jan or Feb instead.

[rpietila]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€ 

Still way behind my infamous record of 240€    (Yes, I had several people buying at that price)

[klee]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€ 

Still way behind my infamous record of 240€    (Yes, I had several people buying at that price)

Hehe, nice deal!

I see arbitrage opportunity between bitstamp and bitcoin.de, hmmm

[ChartBuddy]

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I don't think we recreate that slope of early this year.

I don't really think so either, but more because of how recent the last bubble was.

It takes more money to push us from $200-$500 than from $30-$250.

That's the nature of exponential growth. The net bringing in new users is a lot bigger now than it was 9 months ago. As market cap grows to higher orders of magnitude, so does the leverage to bring in higher orders of magnitude of money.

Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

It is always like this. The old ATH at $32 brought some profit-taking, but $32 was left in the dust pretty quickly, and that itch was a lot fiercer than $266. The consolidation below $32 was only about as long as the consolidation below the round figure of $50:




So I agree overall, but for different reasons. I think we may go to $1000+, but more likely this bubble will be smaller and take us to $600+ instead.

[adamas]

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Nice. If not just a coincidence, this is very very nice. It even jives with the two-week theory, that it takes two weeks from the time the average person starts to research Bitcoin to the time they buy in. It means we are experiencing the calm before the storm, with today's rally even being part of the calm, compared to what's coming.

[rpietila]

Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?

Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.

Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.

The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.


=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.

The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.

I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.

[manfred]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€  

Still way behind my infamous record of 240€    (Yes, I had several people buying at that price)

Sorry to disapoint but you come a poor second.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169881.0
Yes Satoshi's sold for £50 (80 USD) each

[windjc]

Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?

Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.

Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.

The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.


=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.

The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.

I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.

Interesting points. All taken.

I do think that the movement up to 266 is going to invite some dumps - perhaps from those "non-believers" you referred to.

Also, I think some large hands - some with 50k+ coins might take some profits here. To buy an apartment or something.

[rpietila]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€  

Still way behind my infamous record of 240€    (Yes, I had several people buying at that price)

Sorry to disapoint but you come a poor second.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169881.0
Yes Satoshi's sold for £50 (80 USD) each

Well I came first if the qualification is BTC50 minimum per day.

[windjc]

German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?

Holy crap, 165€  

Still way behind my infamous record of 240€    (Yes, I had several people buying at that price)

Sorry to disapoint but you come a poor second.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169881.0
Yes Satoshi's sold for £50 (80 USD) each

Well I came first if the qualification is BTC50 minimum per day.

What's your prediction for this week, rpietila. Are we going up? or a surprise down?

[xalex]

Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?

Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.

Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.

The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.


=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.

The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.

I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.

Some say i am an early adopter, perhaps i am. In my view everyone adopting it today still is.
Anyway, i rarely reply on the forums. But i had to tell you i am actually trading some precious BTC for Euro's at a certain point. A while ago i read the paper, traded some Euro's for BTC (had to drive to the other side of the country to do so), and stored it on a paper wallet on a good location (i can't even reach it alone). I wrote down the percentage of my BTC i would trade back to Euro's when it's value equaled the value of a nice house in my country. I don't want to trade these BTC, but i have to, else my investment will no longer be based on logic but on emotional trading in a wild market.

So, yes, gradually selling some BTC at a certain fixed minimal price as an "early adopter". Yet not nearly as much to make a huge dent in the overall BTC trust.

-xalex

[windjc]

Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.

Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity?

Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling.

Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment.

The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top.


=>
Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins.

The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%.

I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot.

Some say i am an early adopter, perhaps i am. In my view everyone adopting it today still is.
Anyway, i rarely reply on the forums. But i had to tell you i am actually trading some precious BTC for Euro's at a certain point. A while ago i read the paper, traded some Euro's for BTC (had to drive to the other side of the country to do so), and stored it on a paper wallet on a good location (i can't even reach it alone). I wrote down the percentage of my BTC i would trade back to Euro's when it's value equaled the value of a nice house in my country. I don't want to trade these BTC, but i have to, else my investment will no longer be based on logic but on emotional trading in a wild market.

So, yes, gradually selling some BTC at a certain fixed minimal price as an "early adopter". Yet not nearly as much to make a huge dent in the overall BTC trust.

-xalex

As I suspect some might.

[ChartBuddy]

[keewee]

Bit of a rally on Bitstamp. $214.50 now

[adamas]

Nice. If not just a coincidence, this is very very nice. It even jives with the two-week theory, that it takes two weeks from the time the average person starts to research Bitcoin to the time they buy in.

  I agree with you.

[keewee]