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I disagree. In each case FOMO happens in the manner it just happens, IMHO, it kills adoption by the masses and the powers that be a bit more. Eventually, something else will come along and replace Bitcoin, if this keeps up.
Nothing is even close to replacing bitcoin. Sir, thou doth protest too much, me thinks.
Between the hodgepodge of POW mining and the fact that adoption is not, again IMHO, keeping up with the speculation and HODL'ing of Bitcoin, anyway this is THE slippery slope, IMHO.
Mostly what I see is your speculations about negatives that largely do not exist.... and even if they do, they are not as BIG of a deal that you are making them out to be.
Perhaps you are right nothing can be done about this, but there is no reason to think the odds are not any worse for Bitcoin ricocheting down on each FOMO/PUMP with loss of adoption and looking half-assed to the folk who have the big money to invest in this experiment... then it is that such actions and FOMO will lead to 20k coin and beyond.
The facts seem to be going the opposite of your fears, including the fact that the price is going up. Yeah, maybe you believe that the price going up is mere manipulation and not really based on anything, but there also seems to be a bit of evidence out there that financialization had been tending to lead this last pump, and some of the BIG boys are seeming to want to get in on bitcoin before anyone else, and I could give two shits about whether they are able to sustain their interest or not or whether some of them are trying to manipulate the price or not, it becomes quite difficult for even some of these supposed BIG boys to stop the momentum when it begins to go up, and it really does not matter if they attempt to manipulate or they attempt to front run the 2020 halvening or they give up on bitcoin, honey badger doesn't care, and she is going UP wether the BIG boys front run her and manipulate her or not.... even if it could take a bit longer before we are richer than fuck... and even if along the way we are only merely regular rich.
Either way, any of us who are in bitcoin should be able to take measures to protect ourselves to prepare for both ups and downs, and in the long run as long as we continue to accumulate bitcoin, we are going to be way the fuck ahead of the game, even if there happens to be some delay because manipulators are having some temporary success in manipulating DOWN rather than UP, yet they can only keep this BAD BOY down for so long... and many of us who are buying and accumulating already know that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet towards the upside, even though it is not guaranteed, but the odds are damned good that in the long run we are going up rather than down.. and manipulation attempts are going to continue to be attempted along the way.
The jury is out.
O.k. Fair enough. We will see how some of this plays out. Could be up or could be down. We should prepare for either direction and both directions all at the same time.
I'm just pointing out that EVENTUALLY, such stuff will have to shake out in a more even manner between Mining/HODL/Speculation and Adoption.
"Eventually" we are all going to be dead too. So, we just play it for what works for us. So far bitcoin still is the best investment in town, so I don't know what you are so worried about in regards to how things are going to "shake out." Everything is a moving target and there are a lot of players in bitcoin that cause a whole hell of a lot of networking effects in bitcoin that are building and building and building all at the same time, even while BTC's price is going up and down, and again, no other coin or project is even close to bitcoin in terms of these various network effects.
So in my view the dangers I mention is the 'red-headed step-child' Adoption, that is way beyond the curve with Bitcoin.
No real need for me to repeat that I believe that you are giving way too much weight to one thing that is likely to play out, and sure it could take 50 years before really seeing it play out, but I still believe that less than 1% adoption is where we are at, and we are going to see magnitudes of increases in BTC's price, even if we merely get to 5% in five years.
We will see but this is indeed my 'bugaboo' about Bitcoin and its lack of adoption. You take away folk from back in the day like me that HODL and we have not seen a sh*tload of progress in adoption IMHO. Less so if you toss in whale games and speculation.
Are you talking about retail adoption? or something else? There seems to be a whole hell of a lot of exchanges that are coming onto the scene, so I think that matters are evolving sufficiently well... Yeah, it would be nice if there was better tax treatment for spending coins, but there seems to be more and more awareness of bitcoin all around the world, and some of the developments and even the entrances of some of the BIGGER players could increase some of the use cases too... My point is that development and adoption takes place within a lot of spheres, and if you are merely referring to one kind of adoption that you would like to see more of, then seems that you are too focused on one thing because there is constant activity and development in the space that should be keeping it excited for anyone who is trying to accept bitcoin for what it is rather than trying to proscribe on it some kind of set of expectation visions and then proclaim that bitcoin is not filling those expectation visions. That seems like self-defeating thinking and a kind of non-acceptance of bitcoin for what it is and directions that it has been developing, including every single year since it's inception.
Store of Value wise, this is not gonna fly long term, again IMHO, without some decent adoption in a more sustainable manner.
It's already doing pretty well in regards to store of value. I can take my store of value anywhere in the world, and nobody can say shit about it.
Try doing that with some other asset.
Perhaps that will be the case from this point on, but if not, I don't agree that newbies mean sh*t...they are the future and so far the newbies I talk to want nothing to do with Bitcoin after being burnt twice.
Maybe you are talking with the wrong people? There are certainly a lot of people out there who are interested in bitcoin, and are taking measures to learn more about it. Look at the number of podcasts about purely bitcoin... whoaza!!!!! Growing exponentially. There are so many god damed bitcoin experts that it amazes me to try to keep with the ongoing free buzz that is available for bitcoiners, and it is just growing and growing and growing, from my perspective. Some people I listen to, and I say to myself "holy fuck!!!!!" Some people know so much, and they have been in the space for only a short period of time, too. That is only increasing and only going to continue to increase, from my perspective, and if some dumb negative whiners cannot figure it out and at least figure out some way to get themselves on board or to start to buy in, then they are likely going to be chasing the bitcoin train when we are a lot higher prices, such as in the supra $30k arena.... and then they might end up getting burned again, but that is because they are unable or unwilling to figure out a strategy for today in order to prepare for a future that is quite likely to happen... and that is higher BTC prices...
Again, Chump or Champ we will be the first to know, but adoption in my view is the lagging variable in our 10 year Bitcoin Experiment and FOMO/PUMPS/RETREATS will, again, IMHO, have to less dramatic or we have no shot at a store of value long term for Bitcoin as the Virtual Gold that everyone assumes.
I am glad that you are not advising (or an expert) on this topic, because you seem to giving too much weight to a factor that matters a whole hell of a lot less than you are making it out to.
A store of value that can dump 40% off/on WITHOUT more adoption is unsustainable IMHO.
Yeah, but that is NOT what is happening.
Whenever we get large price increases, we normally get decently good size corrections. Yeah, of course they can be in the 15% to 25% territory, but it is not unusual to have corrections that are in 30% to 50% arena. Largely, if they start to get to be greater than 50%, then they seem to drag out longer, but if they are quickie drops, then the BTC price might bounce back in a kind of "normal" correction.
I don't understand why you want to harp so much on this in order to attempt to describe it as being less normal than it is....
Like everyone else I'm just 'winging it' and guessing,
I can see that and seems to be that what you are saying is quite "out there" recently, especially when you are getting so worked up about normal market movements.
but this is the part of Bitcoin that needs to be 'tamed' somewhat for more adoption and from my view and we need more stability and less of this for more adoption
You might be right, but making money from bitcoin means early adoption, which means higher volatility and higher risk, and once bitcoin matures, then the volatility will go down and adoption will go up, but it can take a long time to get there... so we are not there, yet, but lack of stability is not going to stop honey badger from doing what is going to do, which is largely go up in price in the coming years... and probably even more likely in the next two years around this next halvening.
and less centralization of Bitcoin (new HODL'ers) this is crucial or no one NEW big money or small money will play...it will just be the same old actors since 2013-2015. Right or Wrong that is how I see this, also as a 'possibility this as panning out with Bitcoin, that it never quite gets up to speed without the above I see needed for adoption by more folk.
Brad
Again, you seem to be failing to appreciate that bitcoin is continuing to grow, and you are harping on some perception that it is not growing fast enough in the way that you would like, and therefore, it is DOOMED... blah blah blah..
Seems like you have blinders on with your maniacal focus on this adoption thingie-ma-jiggie and suggesting that newbies are being scared out of the market by manipulation.
Poll
