Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

a kiss on the lips

#nohomo?
 

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[Biodom]

People "should" root for a correction because we are already overextended on a temporary basis and if we would keep going vertically UP, then we will reach the "blue" NUPL sooner than later and undergo a large correction. This ALWAYS happened before.

Having a "nice" 19% correction to 23Kish would allow up to keep going much further.

It either corrects or it doesn't I don't see any reason to root for it, unless you are either short or you sold too much too soon.

And, contrary to what you seem to be suggesting has to happen, bitcoin no doesn't work like that.  We don't "have to" have a correction in order for UPpity to continue, especially based on underlying bitcoin fundamentals, if happen to understand or recognize what those happen to be, instead of trying to treat bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset class.

I did not sell any..."I am the one who BUYS"... vs you, who is always selling stuff under some "program".
In short, if it is not "mature", then why sell at all?

[bitebits]

"Number of bitcoin UTXOs that are worth less than the time at which they were created (when the value was last spent:"


https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1343907838792527874

[HairyMaclairy]

If this is the 2020 tax year selloff then we are ... umm... in a bull market?

(tax year selloff for ants?)

We still have to make it through the next 48 hours.  But yes it’s definitely looking strong right now. 

[lightfoot]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

[serveria.com]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). 

[Biodom]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). 

It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher.
So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it.
Bitcoin does not care, of course.

[HairyMaclairy]

In memoriam...of something

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrp

Say what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore.
Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation).

XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations.

The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) .

I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security.

After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now.

Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations.
Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc.
Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind).
We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago.
Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute.
It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race.

Fuck XRP and good riddance.  They are scammers just trying to ride on Bitcoin’s coat tails, no different from Bcash lol.  And fuck Eth too for that matter.  I have done enough with ETH to know it’s a shit show.

Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted not to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect.  So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution.  And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore.  And that’s a good thing, because the big boys will take her money and leave her with nothing every time.

There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time.  But they aren’t supposed to whine about it.  

If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor.  And that amount is falling all the time.  By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less.

[OutOfMemory]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

I disagree. A simple misunderstanding (through under-communication by myself) could be the key.
Occam's razor is about choosing theories/hypotheses over another by using reduction.

For example, the question "why don't people just move...?" isn't going to be fully answered by applying the most simple hypothesis
Here, under knowledge about as many complex relations of the problem as possible, the most detailed answer would meet the needs.
If i didn't misunderstand.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that i feel definitely more relaxed since corn is correcting 

[infofront]

Old poll results:

[d_eddie]

Old poll results:

Please consider this as a future poll for a change from the usual numeric estimates.

My TA says we are running too hot right now.  Currently we are at the March 2021 price and it’s only December so we are roughly three months ahead of schedule.   

Likely scenarios are: 

1. My TA is shit

2.  We are aiming for a 2013 crash (although I would say we have not yet gone parabolic so this is a lower risk)

3.  We will stagnate at this price for 3 months and everyone will get bored

4.  This time it is different^TM and This Is Gentlemen please pick the colour of your helicopter (no black helicopters please)

5. We are going to have a mild dump heading into early January and then bounce. 

Personally I’m going with option 5.  Again I am not trading this - it’s not worth the risk. 

Edit: If we make it to 15 January without a meaningful drop, options 2 & 4 become more prominent (never forgetting option 1).

[Biodom]

In memoriam...of something

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrp

Say what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore.
Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation).

XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations.

The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) .

I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security.

After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now.

Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations.
Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc.
Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind).
We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago.
Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute.
It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race.

Fuck XRP and good riddance.  And fuck Eth too for that matter.  

Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect.  So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution.  And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore.  

There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time.  But they aren’t supposed to whine about it.  

If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor.  And that amount is falling all the time.  By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less.

why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment.
I posit that it is a significant long term problem.
You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough.

[serveria.com]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). 

It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher.
So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it.
Bitcoin does not care, of course.

Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now? 

[serveria.com]

Meanwhile: witnessing moar uppity 

[HairyMaclairy]

Moving is complicated. A big problem is you may have family/friends/whatnot at the old place who you can fall back on if things go weird short-term. Move to a new place and that's not there. So the lack of any kind of a safety net (social or financial) keeps people from just being able to "move".

That's totally not counting the xenophobic nature of people to reject anyone new in their community.

TL;DR Arrie the xenophobe says Africans are stupid for living where they live. Should they move to cooler climates, they're sure to find friendly landmines to welcome them.

Also if Africans don’t like being poor, they should just be rich instead

[El duderino_]

What is this....... sideways for ants

[Biodom]

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

I have found Occam's razor a pretty effective tool to cut though "complex bullshit" problems. Your mileage may vary.

Regarding bitcoin people are talking doom here. Did it crash to like 800 again? (checks) No still stuck in the doldrums of 27,000.....

Exactly. Not sure why many think BTC in bull mode needs any significant corrections. Sideways? Maybe... Perhaps even "slow grow" kind of mode is possible (or +2k -1k sort of waves). 

It does not "need'' it, but bull markets with significant corrections last longer and grind higher.
So, it you want to achieve a higher price at the peak, then you "need" it.
Bitcoin does not care, of course.

Why can't we have a correction down to $60k (or to say $75k) from $100k? Would that be a significant correction? Hell yeah. But now, frankly I don't see a reason for a correction. No FUD, no overheating (we are not in the parabolic phase), no inflation so why should we go down now? 

if straight up from here, it will not get to 100K with 99% probability.
WTF you are so concerned about corrections...leveraged a bit too much, lol?

[HairyMaclairy]

In memoriam...of something

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/12/29/sec-sinks-xrp

Say what you want about that shitcoin, but the wanton destruction of monetary value (maybe wrongly attributed, I agree) is not something that I adore.
Honestly, if this would eventually cause SEC demise as a regulatory agency, so be it (see quotation).

XRP perhaps couldn’t withstand this injustice, but few can commend the way SEC went about enforcing it, even if they do agree.
Where coders are concerned, this is just another round they don’t even care about in a long running battle. The question is: will SEC be destroyed in the end?
You can not just wipe out tens of billions without courting hate, especially when the institution was already hated due to its investment prohibitions injustice inscribed in its very foundations.

The 'subtracted' value is obviously flowing mostly into bitcoin plus 2-3 s-coins (for now) .

I don't see how the ethereum pre-sale and issuance schedule makes it anything different than a security.

After ripple SEC will surely have ether in it's sights. Forever looking over their shoulders now.

Absolutely, especially since there is, apparently, no time frame limitations.
Another point to mention-i got a link to FTX from somewhere and there it was: USA is in an "interesting" group, together with N korea, iran, Crimea, etc.
Same for many other investment sites (Deribit comes to mind).
We are being cordoned off-all thanks to SEC and their malcontented Howey test, which should have been buried decades ago.
Add to that the concocted 'accredited investor' statute.
It's like you want darwinian evolution, but handicap some people in the race.

Fuck XRP and good riddance.  And fuck Eth too for that matter.  

Accredited investor schemes are there for a reason. And the reason is because Aunt Mabel can’t be trusted to get caught up in bumblefuck Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect.  So she goes screaming off to her Senator for a resolution.  And the resolution is that Aunt Mabel isn’t allowed to play with the big boys anymore.  

There are plenty of accredited investors that do their dough all the time.  But they aren’t supposed to whine about it.  

If you have 40 BTC right now, you are an accredited investor.  And that amount is falling all the time.  By the end of this bull it might be 5 BTC or less.

why is it always about personalities? Not my problem, but it is a factor causing less meritocracy in finance/investment.
I posit that it is a significant long term problem.
You think that SEC is not btc problem? They (and some other lettered entities) can always made up some if prodded hard enough.

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Moving is complicated. A big problem is you may have family/friends/whatnot at the old place who you can fall back on if things go weird short-term. Move to a new place and that's not there. So the lack of any kind of a safety net (social or financial) keeps people from just being able to "move".

That's totally not counting the xenophobic nature of people to reject anyone new in their community.

TL;DR Arrie the xenophobe says Africans are stupid for living where they live. Should they move to cooler climates, they're sure to find friendly landmines to welcome them.

Let's peek into complex system theory a bit.
One rule of (handling) complexity says: "Simple answers to complex questions, as well as simple solutions for complex problems, are generally wrong / going to fail".

Nuff said.

If anybody continues joking about AIX (RS6000's), i'm gonna post about AS400's or S/390's
Fun fact: When travelling from an AIX based course at the IBM technology center in Montpellier, my car broke down in Aix de Provence.

Sure it did. Occam’s razor.

The Coteaux d'Aix-en-Provence AOC is the second largest Provençal wine appellation, covering over 50 communes in the west and northwestern regions of Provence. The area comprises the city of Aix-en-Provence and surrounding communes. Nearly 60% of the production is red wine, followed by 35% rosé and 5% white wine.

[d_eddie]

SEC is not a BTC risk.  There is a huge difference between XRP and BTC.  Ripple Labs is a corporation that prints and controls XRP.  There is no equivalent in BTC (and no Blockstream is not the same).

The SEC is doing us a favour by killing off competing shitcoins.  Bitcoin dominance will soar further.  

I also see it like this. I doubt the SEC is going to target ETH though. The case is not as easy as it is for XRP, and interest in ETH is probably already widespread enough (among largish companies and potential lobbyists) to have crossed the too big to fail threshold.