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Question: 1/31 Closing Price:
<$30,000 - 3 (30%)
$30,000-$31,000 - 0 (0%)
$31,000-$32,000 - 1 (10%)
$32,000-$33,000 - 1 (10%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 2 (20%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 0 (0%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 1 (10%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 0 (0%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 1 (10%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 0 (0%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 0 (0%)
>$40,000 - 1 (10%)
Total Voters: 10

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25074768 times)
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December 04, 2020, 03:52:57 PM


Quads.  And feck it.  Let's melt a couple faces out there.  P Schiff's would be a good start. Smiley
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December 04, 2020, 03:58:01 PM

I've been contemplating somethig recently. We all expect that 2021 will be incredible for Bitcoin. May be the price will cross 50K, 100K, 200K, or even more. With that in mind, wouldn't it be better if I take an unpaid leave of absence from my work for 1 year and go to some exotic island with no internet and tv. My work spot will be reserved, so I have no worries for that. I could just put some sell orders between 50K and 500K and when I return, I will discover what happened. In this way, I will avoid the emotional decisions and selling too much too early.  Roll Eyes

Sure, if you have the resources to do that go for it. Might be your last chance to live a truly unconnected life for awhile.
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December 04, 2020, 04:02:26 PM

El duderino_
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December 04, 2020, 04:03:39 PM

https://twitter.com/bitstamp/status/1334860005158383618?s=21

Awesome chart ride  Cheesy
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December 04, 2020, 04:10:13 PM

There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.

Which is why non mining hodlers like difficulty increases. Not only more security, but also higher production cost.

Right. I am not against difficulty increases (my mining days are long gone), but I can hardly imagine a tenfold increase of the current production cost. As I understand, the main constituents are electricity costs and equipment costs (the equipment quickly becomes obsolete and constantly needs to be replaced). The efficiency (hash per joule) continues to increase, so I doubt that the energy consumption can increase significantly. Faster and more efficient equipment is more expensive, but its cost needs to increase faster than difficulty to make the cost of production higher.

Right, but you're forgetting another important factor to the final cost: the amount of competition. If you're the only one left mining, it doesn't really matter how computationally powerful or energetically efficient your rig is: each hour, all 6 blocks will be yours. Competition is what drives the arms race to get more powerful, more efficient gear and ultimately lifts production costs.

Speaking of which, has anyone got some good links on info regarding the current state of ASICs, pricing, ongoing R&D, etc.? I feel like I've gotten out of the loop on current/future mining hardware.
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December 04, 2020, 04:12:35 PM

I wonder what TERA is doing. I figured she'd be back when the bull started but probably made enough in the last two bubbles.
Why do people think TERA is a woman?  IIRC, there was just one forum member who started calling TERA a 'she', TERA never corrected (which I understand if you care about opsec), and everybody just started taking over this habit.  Not saying she cannot be a woman, but there is like zero indication about his/her gender.  If anything, I would think that traders that are early adopters of bitcoin have a higher likelihood of being male (though undoubtedly some women are also early adopters and/or trader).

I think she referred to herself as a she. At least, she never contradicted anyone calling her 'she'. Not that it means much of course.

I never contradicted Roach either after he came to the conclusion I must be a female for not supporting his brand of fascism  Cool
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December 04, 2020, 04:16:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Owned.


https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1334653231021092866
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December 04, 2020, 04:31:10 PM


Blockchain Association Lobby group vs Big Banking Lobby group.

Anyone know where to find a quick reference on current Senators and State Representatives who support Cryptocurrency vs who is in the big bank's pockets?
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December 04, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)

Grayscale adding another 7000+ Bitcoin to their holdings.



Where did you get that image from?
Nothing too difficult I cannot replicate with ease on my spreadsheet.

Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!

Hello, Fillippone.

https://www.bybt.com/Grayscale
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December 04, 2020, 04:51:01 PM

Decided to set up a $25 daily recurring buy at Gemini, until I get bored after 'doing enough of that for a while', or run out of money - whichever comes first.

Let's see how this bold strategy plays out.

Might work better as selling a few weeks back  Tongue


Though I understand the decision as it’s just a % of the stash

Point of the matter remains that these two strategies or actions are somewhat conflicting and incoherent..., and I suppose that one of the ways to reconcile the incoherence angle is to point out that the two actions were employed at differing points in time...  but whatever, to each their own... peeps have their ways.

I will concede; however, that it can be difficult for any one of us to attempt to employ consistencies in our investment approach, whether dealing with bitcoin or various other investments - there are uncertainties that are difficult to account for, and then there are impulses to do the right thing and get better value and not leave value on the table, but almost no matter what we do, value is likely to be left on the table from time to time, which is not necessarily a bad thing and it should become much easier to deal with (both financially and psychologically) the leaving of value on the table when we feel that we have surplus value in our holdings...
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December 04, 2020, 05:12:15 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

The battle for $19k rages on... currently $19037USD/$24375CAD (Bitcoinaverage)

We waited so long to get back to $19k. I don't mind consolidating here for a little while. We're still ahead of schedule.

$20k will come soon enough and then 6 digits before too long.

Relax and enjoy the show. Go Bitcoin go.


Wake a brother up when page parity occurs

Aaah. Remember when gold ounce price parity was a thing?

Before long we'll look back fondly at page parity with a warm nostalgia.
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December 04, 2020, 05:13:10 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Don’t get caught up in the hype as bitcoin hovers around $19,000
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/dont-get-caught-up-in-the-hype-as-bitcoin-hovers-around-19000.html

Quote
"Most advisors would caution clients who want to invest in bitcoin, or any other buzzy trend.

It can be easy to have FOMO, or fear of missing out, on the latest hot investing trend, according to Roger Ma, CFP and founder of New York City-based financial planning firm lifelaidout.

It’s best to keep your goals in mind before putting money into a fad investment, which could be something like bitcoin, a commodity like gold or the latest hot stock that’s taking off."

You hear that plebs? The MSM message is clear --- stay the fk away from bitcoin!
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December 04, 2020, 05:36:36 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), JayJuanGee (1)



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4392671-bitcoin-winklevoss-twins-and-planb-see-25x-to-50x-gain-in-next-decade-first-target-stands

https://twitter.com/tyler/status/1334878704397393920?s=20
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December 04, 2020, 06:15:38 PM

Quote
#bitcoin stock-to-flow cross asset model
-if BTC doesn't break it's historical path
-BTC market cap will approach gold market value $5-10T in 2021-2024
-and approach real estate market value $10-100T in 2024-2028
-after 2028 we can no longer interpolate and enter uncharted waters

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1334834429177507844

1 trillion = $50,000 per coin.

$250,000 - $500,000 in 2021 - 2024.

$500,000 - $5,000,000 in 2024 - 2028.
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December 04, 2020, 06:24:55 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.


I don't think that you understanding this thesis correctly.
We are at approximately 10x hashing since Dec 2017 while the price is roughly the SAME. Phil posted about this numerous times.
Miner's efficiently increased only about 2X, maybe even less during the same time frame.
Even now, mining is not very profitable at lower electricity cost.
The rise in hashing power is inescapable since miners production is mostly sold out until next summer.
After we are at $100-200K, then, maybe we can talk about slower growth.
The cost of miners themselves have to be amortized as well, but it is obvious.
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December 04, 2020, 06:31:25 PM
Merited by JSRAW (1)


Yes... perhaps you do not NOT know nuttin.

But still... something seems to be off by your perspective, including if you thought that there were boring periods in BTC's life.

I don't really know about 2011 through personal experience, but I was watching the bitcoin space since late 2013, and surely, I found it quite interesting, even between late 2013 and 2016..  I mean if you really think about bitcoin, it is a paradigm shifting invention.. that is quite amazing every 10 minutes that it pumps out another block, and ongoingly there have been new businesses coming and going in bitcoin and some of them successfully evolving, too..  so I am having some difficulties relating to your finding bitcoin to be boring perspective.

Certainly it is an interesting technological invention, potentially capable of replacing gold (at least partially) as reserve and investment.

Ok.  Fair enough.  You might be coming around to recognizing some of bitcoin's use case.. but you do not necessarily see bitcoin as being superior to gold - which it likely is... but hey, that seems to be a difference of degree rather than kind.  So reasonable peeps could differ in their perspective.

One of the advantages that you have, that regular normies do not have is that you have already recognized bitcoin for several years, so you probably have decent ideas about how to put 1% to 10% of your portfolio into bitcoin and you do not even have to believe in bitcoin at all in order to take such measures to hedge.

Normies likely have no fucking clue what bitcoin is, and if they do they have not figured out how to get some reasonable stake in the ballpark of 1% to 10%... so you are way the hell ahead of normies, even if you seem to have a overly bearish and seemingly unreasonable perspective (even after being informed of bitcoin).. but hey, that's your choice, in the end... I give little shits about if you invest in bitcoin at all, even if it is quite likely in your best interest to do so.


A bit too late, although.

You mean that bitcoin has already had its run up?  That's why it is "too late"?

Gawd!!!! my eyes are almost rolling out of the back of my head, if you really believe that's where bitcoin is at in its life or its current price cycle or however you might currently characterize where we are at, at this point in time.

Until 2017 I thought it would remain an insignificant curiosity, but since then I am sure it is going to stay for decades. But, it does not mean that bitcoin can make another 10x increase.

Well, I am glad that you came around, somewhat.

There were quite a few convincing occurances in 2017 that provided a lot of evidence for the bull case for bitcoin - even if they might not have been 100%... but hardly anything is 100% when we are attempting to figure out things that might happen in the future (death and taxes come to mind).

Regarding the "no more 10xs"  what are we using as our reference point?  Current price in order to attempt to advantage you in your prognosis?

I personally like to attempt to figure out our jumping off points.., which likely would be around $4k in this cycle...  but whatever, I understand that there may well be various reasonable ways to calculate where bitcoin might be going, including price tops.. if you attempt to project the next price top, then it could be relevant to go from the previous price top.

I just do not believe those price tops to be good reference points unless you are trying to tell some kind of nonsense story (spin the matter) about the erratic nature of bitcoin, and if you want to consider bitcoin as erratic and send that message, then you are likely doing a disservice to both yourself and to your intended audience.

Getting off my "tops" soap box, I still believe that even if we reference $20k as our BTC price starting point, it remains quite reasonable that BTC may well have a few more 10x increases from this price point, it can just be a question of time regarding how long that it takes for several 10x increase to actually play out.. but it still seems a bit crazy to be basing your own investment choices upon whether or not such 10x price increases are going to actually happen.

Investors should not need anything near 10x price increases in order to profit stupendously from bitcoin relative to other possible investment choices.

So sure, maybe you end up being correct, and bitcoin never reaches $200k, ever.. but so fucking what?  For any particular person attempting to decide what to do with his/her own finances or finances that s/he has under his/her control is to figure out what to do from here.  Seems like buying in remains a prudent approach, especially if starting from a position of NOT having BTC.  Now, on the other hand, if such person already has BTC then there is going to be variations on the questions regarding whether s/he has enough or should buy more or should shave some BTC off of the holdings along the way UPpity (or wherever this pig might be going from here).


Part of my point is not just $20k by itself, but how the BTC price got to nearly $20k from around $10k in early September.

BTC prices pretty much doubled and broke through at least three resistance points in the $12,500 arena, $13,880 and $17,250, and you seem to want to focus upon the fact that it did not quite make it above some kind of symbolic (or maybe self-selected point) of $20k, when it just got into the region in the past week or so?  You are either disingenuous or a troll to be focusing on such nonsense and trying to make some kind of supposedly meaningful bearish point out of it.

Breaking through anything below $20k is nothing new, we have seen it before.


We are not merely talking about breaking above $20k, you diptwat.

Have you seen the latest postings in this weighted average price thread?

We have hoverings in the top of the BTC weighted average price for the past few months, and the past week there has been a lot of towards the top, including the actual top yesterday.

Furthermore there is market cap, and of course, lots of coins coming off of exchanges.. causing a shortage of coins.

Anyhow, ongoing bullish dynamics in the short term... even though you consider it "no big deal" which probably goes back to either you did not buy enough BTC or you sold way too many BTC too soon because you have been failing and refusing to appreciate and recognize the bullish case for bitcoin, which seems to be unravelling right in front of our eyes whether you want to acknowledge it or not.. or continue to poo poo it, and hope that maybe you might be correct in your ongoing lack of appreciation of what are likely both BTC fundamentals and capturings within the various BTC price prediction models (Stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects).


It is somewhat amusing that here "bearish" means "not expecting huge increase".

You can call it whatever you like... and be amused however you like.

I am bullish in the long run,

Good for you.  Hopefully, you did not sell too many too soon or fail/refuse to stock up enough.

the difference is that in my case "bullish" may mean average price doubling every four years (shorter term fluctuations are definitely going to be stronger).

In terms of my own personal investment into BTC, I don't even expect that great of a rise... I have only recently increased from 6% per year average to 10% per year average, but that still does not mean that I try to downplay the facts and logic of the ongoing UPside happenings and upside potential that seem to be following the most current BTC price prediction models quite closely - (almost like a fit glove.. whoaza!!!  and maybe even better than a fit glove - double whoazza!!!).

Regarding your hypothesizing of how short term fluctuations are going to get stronger, you seem to be largely talking out of your ass.

Of course, there are going to be great price battles in BTC from time to time, and BIGGER players are going to be chiming into such likely battles, but that does not necessarily result in greater movements in the BTC price - when we are talking about percentages rather than dollar values.  Of course, when the dollar values increase then the dollar value movements increase, but price movements still are likely going to become less volatile with greater market cap rather than the opposite.. so you are actually speaking against logic... which should not surprise me.. you are arguing a lot of illogical matters with your ongoing self-serving selections of which facts that you would like to emphasize in making your ongoing quasi-nonsensical arguments.


Yes.. even you are admitting that the possibility is slight.

And, we should acknowledge that anything is possible, but I don't arrange my financial life around the slight possibilities.. I arrange my life around more likely possibilities..

Hopefully, you are doing the same.. though you seem to be having trouble recognizing where we are at, exactly... in regards to bitcoinlandia.. and appreciating where we are at.. and perhaps your lack of appreciation has to do with your failure/refusal to either stack enough coins or selling too many coins too soon.

I did not sell a single satoshi from my main stash, cold storage since late 2017. However, I do not expect 10x gains anymore.

Good for you.  Attempting to appear that you are being realistic... but still it seems likely that you are underinvested... otherwise why would you be spouting out such ongoing nonsense.  Something does not quite add up here, Alex.

Bitcoin does not need widespread institutional adoption to go above $50k.. but widespread institutional adoption may well bring BTC prices above $1million by the end of 2025-ish... 2024 is 4 years from now.. you should be looking at the end of 2021 and the end of 2025.. don't you know nuttin?

There is one problem: mining. Satoshi Nakamoto (whoever he was) once said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57.msg415#msg415) that "the price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost" and "in later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around". I agree. Later years are still very far away. Widespread institutional adoption may shift the balance, but without it the price will gravitate toward the mining cost, that is low tens of thousands, for years to come.

You are making little to no sense here with your attempting to site satoshi in such a way that supports a theory that BTC price rises are going to be ongoingly stable or have limitations in their upside because mining costs are going to be drawing the BTC price back down to their costs (using current costs as your hypothetical gravitational point).

What fucking nonsense, Alex!!  Can you even appreciate the nonsense in your own proclamations or if you actually believe such bullshit that you seem to be espousing?

The satoshi post that you cite is from February 2010.  For the most part, BTC did not even have a price then, and sure, BTC started to develop a bit of a price in mid 2010, but probably BTC's price market was very immature for a few years after that satoshi post so even if we start with 2012 prices as a kind of starting off point for BTC prices, they have gone up thousands of times from 2012 to present, and has the cost of mining held BTC prices back?   fuck no.

Sure there is some back and forth dynamics and questioning does price direct mining costs are do mining cost directing price, and these are back and forth dynamics and ONLY part of the formula for where BTC prices are or where BTC prices might go.  The mining will adapt.  If the BTC prices are higher, then miners are going to come in, and if they are lower, miners are going to leave, so you are hardly proving any point by trying to suggest that mining costs might limit where the BTC price might go.. because both BTC price and mining costs are moving dynamics and they both vary and depend based on a whole hell of a lot of factors (including but not limited to be related to each other, too).
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December 04, 2020, 06:32:48 PM

Good evening WO!
Observing @ $19,000

Oh dear JJG 😋
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December 04, 2020, 06:41:01 PM
Last edit: December 04, 2020, 06:55:52 PM by JayJuanGee

Hahah funny how some can change his bullish mind when he wants to buy more corn... So I hope for a deeeep weekend dump and then back bullish...

Hope ur lil selfie all that you like, UnDerDoG81.  

Odds are probably slightly less than 50/50 for what you want, but surely NOT impossible....  

I would not want to specify what I currently believe the odds to be before you might attempt to clarify your definition of "deeeep."  Something like $17,500 would be deeeep?  Or you need MOAR deeper?  or less deeper in order to be "satisfied"?


Good evening WO!
Observing @ $19,000

Oh dear JJG 😋

You did not write: "nohomo" you fuck!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry Angry

By the way, BGC.... what issue you having with me?  What causes your proclamation of my name?  Did I say something to provoke?


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Edit

....I think we'll make another attempt at $20k this weekend, if we fail we are going to retest $16k or lower (don't see it going down to less than $15k though, we've had that as support since Nov 6th)

Looks like soullyG has answered your questions, right UnDerDoG81?


Technically speaking.

I am witnessing bad maths... perhaps even bad science.


Proudhon, can you confirm?
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December 04, 2020, 07:12:55 PM

Good evening WO!
Observing @ $19,000

Oh dear JJG 😋

You did not write: "nohomo" you fuck!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry Angry

By the way, BGC.... what issue you having with me?  What causes your proclamation of my name?  Did I say something to provoke?
Your wall of text annoys me 😉
It was the reaction after seeing the post above my last post LOL
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December 04, 2020, 07:21:25 PM

I've been contemplating somethig recently. We all expect that 2021 will be incredible for Bitcoin. May be the price will cross 50K, 100K, 200K, or even more. With that in mind, wouldn't it be better if I take an unpaid leave of absence from my work for 1 year and go to some exotic island with no internet and tv. My work spot will be reserved, so I have no worries for that. I could just put some sell orders between 50K and 500K and when I return, I will discover what happened. In this way, I will avoid the emotional decisions and selling too much too early.  Roll Eyes

That's an interesting idea because part of what any meaningful and prudent plan to sell some BTC on the way to the top would be to get real good grasps of what you would like to do before the BTC price movement actually happens, so in that regard, you should be striving to largely stick with your plan.

At the same time, I would not recommend taking away all discretion and converting your plan into a kind of Turing completeness.

I do understand the logical appeal to such an approach or something similar to that.


Good evening WO!
Observing @ $19,000

Oh dear JJG 😋

You did not write: "nohomo" you fuck!!!!!!   Angry Angry Angry Angry

By the way, BGC.... what issue you having with me?  What causes your proclamation of my name?  Did I say something to provoke?
Your wall of text annoys me 😉
It was the reaction after seeing the post above my last post LOL


Hahahahahaaha

"annoy"  what a wonderful word choice, and your feeling that you needed to "express" such annoyance.

  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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