Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

In the case of the government, they will probably give it away.

To millionaires and billionaires, just to be clear. The poor it's claimed to be taken for usually only see a small fraction of it.

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[Richy_T]

Fair enough lots of new ones on the block, that have grown big in the last year like you said. But they said great things about those other ones too 3-4 years ago. Many promises that never came to fruition.
Most of the new ones will fall on their asses I think too and will probably not be able to hold the heights they may reach this cycle over a 4 year period.

As I said to my friend, many of these new coins, even if they have good ideas behind them (which most don't) have only small teams and will struggle to grow and survive. Like in a forest where the tall trees overshadow and prevent new growth. Maybe one will eventually prevail but that's a gamble with very poor odds.

[gallianooo]

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

for me look like very long and not so probable in a bullrun cycle. With your hypothese, it means that :



Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug, bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K

- We are side way since end of february
- Going really down from April till july
- slow small recovery in august
- Go up again from september

So like 6 months side ways and down in a bullrun before going really up? hmm...  

The nominal high was in April, remember? Hence, you need to start counting from there.
Same is 2013-high in April ($250), local bottom in July ($65 or so). Check bitcoincharts.com
And yes, it was a small bear within a larger bull (double-hump).
Since we did not do a very high move in Jan-April, the bottom should also be milder, but still higher than Jan 1.

Still not really agree.

1/ yes the top was in april. But for me it is still a kind of side ways / range (as it is even less of 15% increasing between the top of february and the current ATH of april). So we can reasonably consider from february not april.

2/ How you can compare with 2013 price range ? We were at 13$ beginning of 2013 with a local top of 250$ so x20.  We were almost at 30K$ beginning of january 2021... so only bit more than x2 since... for our current ATH.

[Biodom]

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

for me look like very long and not so probable in a bullrun cycle. With your hypothese, it means that :



Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug, bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K

- We are side way since end of february
- Going really down from April till july
- slow small recovery in august
- Go up again from september

So like 6 months side ways and down in a bullrun before going really up? hmm...  

The nominal high was in April, remember? Hence, you need to start counting from there.
Same is 2013-high in April ($250), local bottom in July ($65 or so). Check bitcoincharts.com
And yes, it was a small bear within a larger bull (double-hump).
Since we did not do a very high move in Jan-April, the bottom should also be milder, but still higher than Jan 1.

Still not really agree.

1/ yes the top was in april. But for me it is still a kind of side ways / range (as it is even less of 15% increasing between the top of february and the current ATH of april). So we can reasonably consider from february not april.

2/ How you can compare with 2013 price range ? We were at 13$ beginning of 2013 with a local top of 250$ so x20.  We were almost at 30K$ beginning of january 2021... so only bit more than x2 since... for our current ATH.

Well, the scenario would either happen or not happen.
So far, almost every time I uttered something in 2021-it more or less happened (not to toot my own horn-it was just a random accident): the correction timings, the proverbial flat/stall, etc.
Albeit, I could be wrong and we take off from here.
If so, I would be among the happiest as I don't time the market and I don't sell bitcoin, apart from when I need to pay for something, but in this case, I immediately replace.

[gallianooo]

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

for me look like very long and not so probable in a bullrun cycle. With your hypothese, it means that :



Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug, bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K

- We are side way since end of february
- Going really down from April till july
- slow small recovery in august
- Go up again from september

So like 6 months side ways and down in a bullrun before going really up? hmm...  

The nominal high was in April, remember? Hence, you need to start counting from there.
Same is 2013-high in April ($250), local bottom in July ($65 or so). Check bitcoincharts.com
And yes, it was a small bear within a larger bull (double-hump).
Since we did not do a very high move in Jan-April, the bottom should also be milder, but still higher than Jan 1.

Still not really agree.

1/ yes the top was in april. But for me it is still a kind of side ways / range (as it is even less of 15% increasing between the top of february and the current ATH of april). So we can reasonably consider from february not april.

2/ How you can compare with 2013 price range ? We were at 13$ beginning of 2013 with a local top of 250$ so x20.  We were almost at 30K$ beginning of january 2021... so only bit more than x2 since... for our current ATH.

Well, the scenario would either happen or not happen.
So far, almost every time I uttered something in 2021-it more or less happened (not to toot my own horn-it was just a random accident): the correction timings, the proverbial flat/stall, etc.
Albeit, I could be wrong and we take off from here.
If so, I would be among the happiest as I don't time the market and I don't sell bitcoin, apart from when I need to pay for something, but in this case, I immediately replace.

I didn't say that we cannot go lower before going again up. The range 40-43K is probably on the table now.. Even if we can recover from our current level.

I just said it's look very bearish and probably to long in a bull market cycle to sideway + down for 6 months..

Then we will see, just my opinion 

[Sayeds56]

Fair enough lots of new ones on the block, that have grown big in the last year like you said. But they said great things about those other ones too 3-4 years ago. Many promises that never came to fruition.
Most of the new ones will fall on their asses I think too and will probably not be able to hold the heights they may reach this cycle over a 4 year period.

As I said to my friend, many of these new coins, even if they have good ideas behind them (which most don't) have only small teams and will struggle to grow and survive. Like in a forest where the tall trees overshadow and prevent new growth. Maybe one will eventually prevail but that's a gamble with very poor odds.

In deed, Bitcoin is the Mega Tree of crypto Forest overshadowing all small trees but I found this DEFI   https://v1.btcst.finance/#/  very interesting and invested in it because it pays Rewards in BTC satoshis.  Please advise your expert comments. Thanks

[Dabs]

In deed, Bitcoin is the Mega Tree of crypto Forest overshadowing all small trees but I found this DEFI   https://v1.btcst.finance/#/  very interesting and invested in it because it pays Rewards in BTC satoshis.  Please advise your expert comments. Thanks

What's that do? I tried going to website, but it doesn't do anything.

[Sayeds56]

In deed, Bitcoin is the Mega Tree of crypto Forest overshadowing all small trees but I found this DEFI   https://v1.btcst.finance/#/  very interesting and invested in it because it pays Rewards in BTC satoshis.  Please advise your expert comments. Thanks

What's that do? I tried going to website, but it doesn't do anything.

https://www.1-b.tc/static/BTCST_Whitepaper.pdf

[BobLawblaw]

To those who thinks that $1mil is a lot: it sounds like  lot, but...

This is the crux of my issue. As someone sitting on a pile of coin, and retired, why the fuck would I have any incentive to sell corn under those absolutely retarded proposed tax rates?

TBH, and I don't want to sound like a total dick-bag or anything, but every time I sell, $1M is the bare minimum I dump at any time, and cruise on it until I need more. I'm fucking stupid that way. Sue me.

I hope you can appreciate why this proposed increase twists my panties up a little bit. I mean, if this means I just need to sell <$1M USD per year, then so be it, but it's just ridiculous, in that it promotes hodling by us hardcore folk.

Having said that, I'm sure the time will come in the next 5 years, where I decide to buy up the parcel of 100 acres next to us, and erect a proper Citadel, complete with a goddamn lava-filled moat, fed via drilling into the recesses of our mantle, in a rather impressive engineering feat for Bumfuck, TX.

Hopefully Biden is out of office by then, and whatever retarded tax "reforms" he may ram-jam through get repealed.

[shahzadafzal]

Just hold it is the new just do it!

[OutOfMemory]

To those who thinks that $1mil is a lot: it sounds like  lot, but...

This is the crux of my issue. As someone sitting on a pile of coin, and retired, why the fuck would I have any incentive to sell corn under those absolutely retarded proposed tax rates?

TBH, and I don't want to sound like a total dick-bag or anything, but every time I sell, $1M is the bare minimum I dump at any time, and cruise on it until I need more. I'm fucking stupid that way. Sue me.

I hope you can appreciate why this proposed increase twists my panties up a little bit. I mean, if this means I just need to sell <$1M USD per year, then so be it, but it's just ridiculous, in that it promotes hodling by us hardcore folk.

Having said that, I'm sure the time will come in the next 5 years, where I decide to buy up the parcel of 100 acres next to us, and erect a proper Citadel, complete with a goddamn lava-filled moat, fed via drilling into the recesses of our mantle, in a rather impressive engineering feat for Bumfuck, TX.

Hopefully Biden is out of office by then, and whatever retarded tax "reforms" he may ram-jam through get repealed.

This tax maneuver is going to be discussed. Unfortunately, left wing politics are really after richie rich's gains, while the generated taxes are just a tip of the tip of an iceberg of "projected justice". It's populism, they kinda try to signal "hey poor people, hey middle class, hey workers! we gonna give them richies what they deserve, so it makes you feel you're kinda important to us.", or if you put it that way:

Your enemy is our enemy.

This is just cheap, and also distracting from the real problems of economy that constantly makes the poor get even more poor.
Populism at it's best. This time it's not the Trump way, but the other way round  
Same old shit.

[lightfoot]

Keep it in perspective.....

[JimboToronto]

In the case of the government, they will probably give it away.

To millionaires and billionaires, just to be clear. The poor it's claimed to be taken for usually only see a small fraction of it.

Rob from the rich and give to the bureaucrats.

Oh wait. We're the rich.  

Fuck the bureaucrats (and the Bureaupublicans).  

[xhomerx10]

Keep it in perspective.....

 Oh yeah!  Keepin' it real.

[machasm]

I did something my self recently where I sold a portion of BTC into an unnamed alt. Took advantage of my CGT allowance, held the shitcoin for 30 days then bought my original BTC back (actually made a little more due to said shitcoin going up more than BTC)
This then resets the CGT counter back to zero so I will only have to pay CGT at current rate on the BTC I bought back at the price I bought it at AFTER the 30 days.

Ok, but question: Does this do anything for you tax-wise? For example if you bought at 60 and sold at 60k then you owe 20% CGT on 59,940. You pay that when you shift into the altcoin. If you buy BTC back at 60k 30 days later then you still have to pay CGT again if you sell it in the future, but at (future price-60,000) which means the tax hit is the same.

Only reason might be because CGT is taxed at your current rate up to 20%, so if your sale+what you make as a wage slave is under 200k or so you pay less taxes as you're in a lower tax bracket than 20%.

Well in the UK if your income is less than £50K then you pay CGT at 10%. If your income is above £50K you pay 20% CGT.
You also have a CGT allowance of £12,500 tax free
SO it makes sense to do this juggling if you stay within these boundaries.
If you are married you may gift your spouse as much as you like (tax free) and he/she can take advantage of the same allowances.
If you are looking at cashing more than this then it becomes a moot point due to the reasons you have specified although you could still take advantage of the annual tax free allowance.

[JayJuanGee]

“Panic at the disco” 

Ive noticed, that yesterday Bitcoin dominance was around 48%. After this price drop, dominance has returned to 50%. Is this the way (drop) how to return dominance? “That’s they way I dont like it” @ KC and The Sunshine Band

Seems to me that the Bitcoin dominance index is quite irrelevant, especially if you are referring to the Coinmarket Cap one.  There are some indexes that relate to trade volume that might be more accurate, but the one that you seem to be referring to in terms of fluctuations around 48% or 50% or some other variation, likely tells you very little about what is going on with bitcoin or its price moves.

And, since when have we been wanting to put much if any emphasis in terms of what various shitcoins or stable coins might be doing, and their relationship (or supposed relationship) to king daddy?

And to think that this whole crypto marketcap is going to rise way more before eventually crashing again. That crushing last drop before bear cycle is probably going to hurt a lot.

Even this crash was messing my mind just because i was heavily in some alts and i don't really like to make new plans or delaying them. I guess i eat ramens for a while now...

Again "cryptos" and marketcap? 

Hard to give too many shits.

Have you heard of bitcoin, cryptoperkele?  This thread is about bitcoin rather than how you may or may not be suffering in terms of some shitcoin that you may have bought (or gambled with, even if you used bitcoin to engage in such gambling).

Uhh yeah blood and panic everywhere. Missed this feeling. Fantastic time to buy moar. Hoping for $43k. Summer will be sideways that was for sure.

What if the BTC price only corrects down to $44k?  or even ONLY corrects down to $47.5k, what you going to do then?  will you cry if you do not get the bottom or anywhere close?  What if BTC prices never go below $50k again?  Have you bought back in yet?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

What was that, a dump for ants?

[DaRude]

The level of ignorance on this board is really astonishing. Frankly i was expecting more objective opinions. Argument that ultrarich in US are dispropotionally benefiting from current tax system and every year accumulate higher % of overall wealth, quickly gets shifted into taxation is bad so unless we get rid of it, i'm gonna block any changes. The result? Conveniently keeping current status quo and ultrarich continue to be taxed at lower bracket than teachers.

I know a lot of you in here probably got a bunch of newfound wealth in recent months, even though 1BTC = 1BTC no matter what, but damn.. Never thought I'd see so many people oppose an increased tax to people who declare over $1m CAP GAINS a year. Happy friday WO.

Increasing taxes never benefits anyone,
To make a country prosperous, low tax, low spend is the formula.

Singapore one of the richest countries in the world was once one of the poorest.
It was helped to its current status by low taxation.
Top personal tax rate 22%
Corporation Tax 17%
Capital gains Tax 0%
Death Tax 0%
No double taxation on interest and dividends.

Biden and his well meaning but deluded socialist and Marxist backers will leave their tenure in 4 years time with the country in much worse shape.

Time to finish breakfast and off to work.

This reminds me of people showing charts with randomly picked time frames to justify their assumption. Many richer countries have higher taxes, look up taxation in Luxembourg.

Anyone advocating for more taxes has been watching too much MSNBC. It's not about feeling sympathy for people who have billions, it's about people thinking the government is their daddy.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Nearly all the wealth in the world is invested in companies and profits are reinvested in other companies to create more and more jobs. Taxes stifle growth. All taxes are a deterrent to economic activity.

The Government is not your baby daddy and the more money the government takes, the less economic activity, jobs etc.

Ignoring retarded friend/foe FOX vs MSNBC attempt at division from the start, true, but if he wished right now he could easily convert it all at a 20% tax hit. Meaning right now Bezos can get $141billion worth of gold which is around 2.5million tons (if my maths are right) probably enough to fill some pool with coins. Care to guess how much his paper net worth jumped in just last year? (Hint it's over 20%) Net effect of transferring funds from company A to company B is 0 (actually it's a loss after tax hit). Value and jobs only come in if company B is more efficient and more profitable than company A.

Do you think billionaires are swimming around in a pool of gold coins or pallets of $100s? Nearly all of the wealth that people are complaining about is on paper. Jeff Bezos owns a bunch of Amazon shares. If you raise the capital gains tax, he'll just never sell those shares. If the capital gains tax was lowered however, he might sell those shares and invest that money in some other endeavor which could create millions of new jobs. I'm betting the guy who created Amazon is a lot smarter than anyone in the government.

Also it would be trivial to game the new cap gain tax law. Do you know how many wealthy U.S. millionaires/billionaires would be running around claiming exactly $999,999 in income on their taxes every year?

All of them.

Hell, most of the C-Level of the biggest U.S. companies don't even get paid an income, they take stock options as compensation.

Bingo, ever wondered why ultra rich are willing to take $0 of their compensation in wages (taxed at same rate as teachers) and all of it in stock options taxed at 20%? (just don't try to to do it yourself if you try to classify all of your small business income in US as distributions you'll go to jail). It'd be very hard nah impossible for billionaires to survive on $999,999/yr ask Bob 

... Also, a wealth taxes is outright confiscation and is against everything free democratic societies stand for. I don't know where you live but I'm guessing there are not a lot of rich people there.

Switzerland has wealth tax

...

The only way any of that is possible is because The Netherlands is one of the biggest tax havens in the world for mega corporations. Your country skims a little off the top of the taxes that would otherwise be due in every other country in the world. If The Netherlands had to stand on it's own with your tax policies, it would look like soviet era eastern Europe.

US has been the biggest tax heaven in the world for a while now. Educate yourself
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_as_a_tax_haven
https://www.forbes.com/sites/toddganos/2019/09/19/worlds-best-tax-haven-the-united-states/

[serveria.com]

Definitely think this (hopefully temporary) dip has highlighted the somewhat overzealous predictions of late. Some of the alt predictions that were thrown around especially were crazy. Some of those alts have literally dropped right back down to lower than they were 3 years ago.  

With regards to king Bitcoin, I can definitely see a 75K and hopefully a 100K bitcoin later this year. Maybe more.
But 288K or 500K within the year? I doubt it. The 50K and 60K markers just seemed to have been too much of a struggle to quickly get over for something like that I think.

Obviously the long term trend is going up but we are literally at mid Feb prices again and that is with 2 months of quite bullish news.

I hope we continue to follow the Stock 2 flow Plan B model but honestly I'd just be happy if we can reach the likes of 250K-500K by say 2028-2029.
I think eventually his model will fail as it seems too good to be true.

If Saylor and Musk hadn't come along that model would probably already be out of the window by now. That's not to say Bitcoin doesn't go up and the longterm isn't bullish, it's just I think there are several coincidences that sometimes make it appear why a specific model works.

I hope I'm wrong though.

for me look like very long and not so probable in a bullrun cycle. With your hypothese, it means that :



Plan C: a spring-early summer dip (not lower than 40K), slight upward starting in Aug, bull restarting in Sept, accelerating into NOv ETF approval.
Bull culmination in Dec 2021-march 2022 at $150-300K

- We are side way since end of february
- Going really down from April till july
- slow small recovery in august
- Go up again from september

So like 6 months side ways and down in a bullrun before going really up? hmm...  

+1! I respect Biodom he's had posted some really great and totally sound ideas in the past but this is laughable...  got bitten by proudhon perhaps?    or another victim of Mindrust-Gembitz syndrome?      

[DaRude]

To those who thinks that $1mil is a lot: it sounds like  lot, but...

This is the crux of my issue. As someone sitting on a pile of coin, and retired, why the fuck would I have any incentive to sell corn under those absolutely retarded proposed tax rates?

TBH, and I don't want to sound like a total dick-bag or anything, but every time I sell, $1M is the bare minimum I dump at any time, and cruise on it until I need more. I'm fucking stupid that way. Sue me.

I hope you can appreciate why this proposed increase twists my panties up a little bit. I mean, if this means I just need to sell <$1M USD per year, then so be it, but it's just ridiculous, in that it promotes hodling by us hardcore folk.

Having said that, I'm sure the time will come in the next 5 years, where I decide to buy up the parcel of 100 acres next to us, and erect a proper Citadel, complete with a goddamn lava-filled moat, fed via drilling into the recesses of our mantle, in a rather impressive engineering feat for Bumfuck, TX.

Hopefully Biden is out of office by then, and whatever retarded tax "reforms" he may ram-jam through get repealed.

Argument is about $1mil/yr in cap gainz. Not $1mil in total net worth. As stated above only 0.3% of income taxes have AGI above $1mil so yes objectively it is a lot

Bob's argument "why da fuck should i pay taxes if i want to build a lava moat, the government will just do something stupid with that money" is the most valid one! Looks like they can make it retroactive, but it's uncommon and very unpopular.