Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

Are we finally moving?

Bunch of jack ass carry on.

[Toxic2040]

[Richy_T]

That's actually a good thing, but I'd wait for a confirmation in this case. They can always bump the fee higher to get it included faster in the next block. RBF would probably be a non-issue if it's a withdrawal from a custodial service you more or less trust. They may be doing it so they can merge or add transactions together while it's not yet confirmed, but eventually you'll get your coins and they may possibly save on fees if it ends up batching more transactions together.

Yes, a withdrawal is a given anyway since you just have to wait for it. It's more the low-to-medium value purchase realm that double spends could potentially be an issue.

[Toxic2040]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXG7W7skekw

[d_eddie]

... and pop she did indeed ;-)

[Sayeds56]

@FerreMarett
Tomorrow is 1st of May, the month of the bull, my birthday month, and its Chinese year of the Ox (bull) - so lets just 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
https://twitter.com/ferremarett/status/1388109961297866756?s=21


May is also the birth month of LFC_Bitcoin, let’s gooooooo!

[JohnBitCo]

Is it altcoin season or bitcoin season or both  

[philipma1957]

I think the present number go down episode is just the usual intermission of fuckery related to options/futures expiring tomorrow. Apparently, the max pain point this time is around 54k, so that's where the temp bears are likely aiming to.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

This time I think the Coindesk article nailed it.

At 8:00 UTC, the bitstamp price was around 54374 if I read the chart right.

Who'd have thunk?

I think now we get ourselves 3 weeks of unmanipulated market relatively unencumbered number-go-up fun.

Hoping for it. We the miners will soon get a nice bump in btc earnings as the difficulty is about to change may 2 it drops over 10%. Which means 10% more coins earned. I am thinking this should help boost price up.

... and pop she goes, like clockwork.

I think they were slightly, gently tapping her down to keep a lid on the optimal ~54k level until Hour 0 (expiry). The former experiment of the violent dump did bode well. Now they just removed their hands from her head, so she can float freely. Or just a bit more freely, who knows.

At least for now, the hypothesis holds.

I grabbed btc the last 2 or 3 dips of your theory.

Now we have a diff adjustment tomorrow May 1 at  5 or 6 pm

https://diff.cryptothis.com ...

Latest Block:   681246  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   87.0501%  (1855 / 2130.96 expected, 275.96 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   23137439666472.05                           
Current Difficulty:   23581981443663.85                           
Next Difficulty:   between 20529783598797 and 20546744389804

Next Difficulty Change:   between -12.9429% and -12.8710%

Previous Retarget:   April 15, 2021 at 3:40 PM  (+1.9213%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 5:19 PM  (in 1d 6h 30m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 5:39 PM  (in 1d 6h 49m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 1h 39m 57s and 16d 1h 59m 5s

 ...

Still looks to be more than 10%

So A mining farm will get 1.1 btc vs 1 btc soon.

I suspect this will boost us more and easily over 60k

1.1 x 56500 = 62150 not quite my 70k number on may 1

but

if we drift to 60k today and add in the boost of the diff adjustment

we go to new ATH on May 1 of 65-67k

looking forward to this.

[Krubster]

Here is a decent read by the on-chain analyst Ben Lilly, posted yesterday.

https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/market-synchronization

price increased 17% on average from the day prior to the monthly expiration to four days after.

TL;DR: Prices go up after monthly expiration.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, we still have about 17.5 hours left in this month's candle, and it would have to close above $58,789.96 for the candle to be green -

- which is good for me, because I have a shopping list of stuff I want to buy but not until we reach back to $60K levels so I don't wipe out my recent gains.

Hm?

These are frequently kinds of uncertainties, and depending on the size of your shopping list, it can be good that you have some patience, but sometimes when we put something on our shopping list, we will start to get some impatience in regards to getting it.

Hard to know, if we do not know very much about you and your cashflow or the relative cost of the items on the shopping list.

I know some people who are currently getting involved in construction because they have seen  construction costs going way the hell up and they anticipate that the construction costs are going to continue to go up, so they want to lock in construction costs now rather than gambling upon the construction costs going up more, but those are the kinds of "shopping list" items that are not easily changed once the contracts are signed and especially once the work starts.

It does seem pretty straight-forwardly probable that we will be at least touching upon $60k in the upcoming near term future, but not sure how long it will take... of course, some folks, such as gallianooo prognosticate that it is better for bitcoin to go down before it goes up, and therefore they spout out near certain assertions (wishenings) that we be going down before UP, and surely, if we were to reach such low levels of $40k to $43k like they wish/project, then those kinds of diptwats will start talking about even lower numbers being reasonable and/or preferable, so I a not even saying that I know anything, but I cannot disagree that when lower bottoms come in (even on the short-term) there could end up being some delays for any of us who have selling plans for ongoing UPpity price moves in order to fill shopping lists that may end up having to be deferred if DOWNity ends up prolonging longer than expected.

Even if DOWNity trends were to happen of $40k to $43k that perhaps triggers further cascading downity into the lower $30ks, we would not even be removed from our bullrun, in spite of doom and gloom that would become more present in the shakening out of weak hands in the bitcoin space and likely in the shitcon space, too, but those kinds of scenarios could prevent such cashening outs in the $60ks for months, while still preserving our bullrun.. or think of an early 2013 scenario in which the correction from $263 took around 6 months before returning to $263 - and surely we are NOT exactly in any kind of 2013 scenario at this particular moment because there are frequently underlying facts and even momentum facts that cause our current price dynamics to be different from early 2013 or the repercussions that happened in 2013, yet 2013 still does end up illustrating some kinds of realms of correction both in terms of amount and in terms of duration that still allow for the bull scenario to remain intact in spite a pretty decently-sized correction that endures in the ballpark of half a year before resuming - which does not seem out of line with reasonable possibilities even in current bitcoin even if currently seeming a wee bit on the less than likely side of where we are at currently - especially with having BTC prices largely moving around in the $50ks for a couple months (since about mid-February).  Yes, diptwats like Biodom seem to conclude that BTC is "underperforming" because it is stuck in the same price range for a couple of months.., blah blah blah.. but if you think about the matter by zooming out, anywhere in the $50ks is still at the top of the range since we have been getting a new ATH each month - referring to mid Feb, mid-March and mid-April).

By the way, looking at BTC's price movement from the past couple of hours, it surely is nice to be seeing quite a bit of UPpity price movement (currently up to $56,918 $56,950 - moving quickly within the past minute - and not really seeming to want to stop - as I type) which both puts us closer to $58,789.96 (which would be interesting to see within the next 8-9 hours) and also puts us closer to your $60k-ish aspirations.

[philipma1957]

Here is a decent read by the on-chain analyst Ben Lilly, posted yesterday.

https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/market-synchronization

price increased 17% on average from the day prior to the monthly expiration to four days after.

TL;DR: Prices go up after monthly expiration.

Yeah and there is the extra factor this month of the -  10-12%  diff adjustment falling on May 1

It is a nice boost in earnings for mining farms.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin underperforming? Huh?

Greedy much?

Personally, I do not refer to the recent "underperforming" assessments as "greedy" (even though there could be some truth in the "greedy" label) instead of "distracted."**..

**The distraction is by shitcoins, to be more precise... which really seems difficult to help "supposed bitcoiner" who has such difficult times focusing on king daddy bitcoin, even after having supposedly been studying this space for as long as me (more than 7 years) while still cannot help his lil selfie in being distracted by shitcoins.. go figure???  can we help dumb in that kind of presentation?

[Krubster]

[edited out]

Yeah and there is the extra factor this month of the -  10-12%  diff adjustment falling on May 1

It is a nice boost in earnings for mining farms.

Excellent point, the difficulty adjustment is going to boost this further.

This is going to be an extremely interesting month.

"Sell in May and go away" - LOL.

[BitcoinBunny]

[Dabs]

That's actually a good thing, but I'd wait for a confirmation in this case. They can always bump the fee higher to get it included faster in the next block. RBF would probably be a non-issue if it's a withdrawal from a custodial service you more or less trust. They may be doing it so they can merge or add transactions together while it's not yet confirmed, but eventually you'll get your coins and they may possibly save on fees if it ends up batching more transactions together.

Yes, a withdrawal is a given anyway since you just have to wait for it. It's more the low-to-medium value purchase realm that double spends could potentially be an issue.

As escrow, I always wait for a confirmation. For shitcoins, I wait the equivalent number of blocks in 10 minutes, usually takes a bit longer. For personal transactions, I just look and see in my full nodes, and ... yeah, usually looks good in a minute. Also usually, in my case, they send first. What's a block between friends... ... ...

[Richy_T]

Bitcoin up $4000 in 24 hours. Tell 2013 myself that and I'd probably look at you incredulously.

[wavessurfing]

......................

Ever since  you pointed it out I have purchased on the last three dips in the pattern.

I do see a solid break out on May 1 after the futures clear.

so spectacular.

[Krubster]

Bitcoin up $4000 in 24 hours. Tell 2013 myself that and I'd probably look at you incredulously.

Risto sure was eccentric, but he also scammed a lot of people (ask the Monero guys). That doesn't matter much now though, R.I.P.

[mrjoy15]

LAST 24 HOURS BITCOIN STARTS AROUND ~$52,400 AND NOW TRADING OVER $57,000

For BTC sell pressure is quite low, so we are on bullish run and now we can expect a good rally. I wanna see $60,000 over again.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 Charts of BTC $ S&P 500 of May-2020 reflect that  Sell in May and go away  is  a Myth.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IFupWJ8G-BTC-and-S-P-How-accurate-is-Sell-in-May-and-go-away/

Even though I "play along" with various calendar assessments of BTC such as months, quarters, years, I start getting a bit irked if too much emphasis is given to assessing bitcoin under these kinds of parameters - even though I surely appreciate that sometimes we need some kind of measuring stick and ability to compare/contrast - otherwise we will be just all over the place without some ground of reference.

By the way, the short term BTC price dynamics can go either way and they are all over the fucking place, and the most reliable of our current BTC price prediction models have four-year cycles contained therein and also longer term assessments that attempt to incorporate exponential price rises based on s-curve adoption... so take the shorter term price dynamics and even attempts to correlate or relate to traditional assets with a decently-sized grain of salt to the extent that those assessments are not adequately accounting for BTC currently credible and valid longer term price prediction models which involve: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles.

Similar pattern is repeating, not financial advice!

Hhahahaha

Diptwat SS123 is back... hahahahaha

I thought that you would be out licking your wounds from your last dumbass BTC predictions - so now you are back to tell us what? down before up .. or just down?  or something else?  Good luck with that.

By the way, are you recommending selling or shorting at this point?  Or do you have some other recommendation for us?  try to relate your recommendations, if any, to BTC if your likely desperate lil selfie is able to stay focused for long enough.