Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Vycid]

Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:

Not dismissing these charts, but:

A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?

D. Have you seen the news outlets recently? http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/will-bitcoin-replace-paypal/

[Erdogan]

[...]
I have asked in the Economics board what would be the expected state of the "bitcoin network" 15 years from now.  No one knows what will be the value of a bitcoin, of course.  But people cannot even answer (with justification) the more basic question of whether the value will be stable, will grow of fall gradually with time, or will be as chaotic and unpredictable as it is now.

Bitcoin network or bitcoin value? Seems you are interested in bitcoin value.

Nobody knows of course, but we can speculate.

It will be volatile by definition as long as adoption increases. Rise is volatility.

Volatility will be reduced as the usage turns to real world trade. When you sell or buy consumables, you do not care so much about hourly swings, that adds some stickyness to all prices (all prices being the inverse of the value of bitcoin). Think that we now have a rocky river bed, we will go to a swampy river bed.

Price will rise, basically with adoption. Is the system useful? In that case high adoption. Think for yourself.

End game: Stable value, but not completely. There will be bitcoin scares just as there have been gold scares throughout history. World-wide sentiment change regarding necessity of saving will move the value of coins. Value may rise with population growth, productivity rise and lost coins. My guess 2-5% per year.

[lucas.sev]

Look like the correction is coming guys.... Well we're all about long term right? Its healthy to be this way. I personally hate volatility so i dont like the world media keeps talking about "bubble"

We should go up slow and steady not 15% in a day.

There is volatility because the price is almost exclusively speculation. That's a feature, not a bug. The speculation feeds capital indirectly into Bitcoin infrastructure.

You are not allowed to say that on this forum, people are going to talk about booming bitcoin economy and quote bitpay figures (caused by ASIC's) 

[MAbtc]

Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:

Not dismissing these charts, but:

A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?

a. I wouldn't say that. For instance, MFI is looking at price and volume, ATR is measuring volatility. MACD is looking at the [broken] trend. Aroon Up and Down bring another element of time into the equation, and help to confirm trend on MACD.
b. Depends how you like to draw it. What is the "original" trend line?
c. This is bitcoin. I don't see it range trading for even a few weeks given recent price movements. We just took it like 13x from the bottom of the SR crash in what, like 2.5 months. (Excuse my fuzzy math)

Also, understand that I'm just "drawing on charts"... my bearish intuition comes first and foremost.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin network or bitcoin value? Seems you are interested in bitcoin value.

The bitcoin value is one aspect of the system; which includes also exchanges, regulations, distribution, usage petterns, etc.

It will be volatile by definition as long as adoption increases. Rise is volatility.
Volatility will be reduced as the usage turns to real world trade.

Predictable changes, like a steady inflation or deflation, or seasonal variations. People can adapt to them. Volatility is unpredictable changes in value, and that is one thing that bothers economists: they cannot see how a commodity whose value can change 10% up or down in a day, unpredictably, could be used as a payment method (except for illegal trade where bitcoin is the only option, so profit margins can be high enough to cover such swings).   For them, volatility must be reduced before  it can be used for real trade.

Price will rise, basically with adoption.  My guess 2-5% per year.

That is another stumbling block for economists.  Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion.  Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency.  If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?

[granathus]

China moving down...

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitstamp is dropping fast. BTC-China is dropping fast. MtGox is stuck as usual.

[MAbtc]

Latest thoughts, grain of salt advised:

Not dismissing these charts, but:

A. A lot of these charts just confirm each other.
B. We have not yet broken original trendline.
C. Why does it have to be $400 or $2000? Is it not possible we could range trade between $800-$1100 for a few weeks, months, etc.?

D. Have you seen the news outlets recently? http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/10/business/will-bitcoin-replace-paypal/

It's a nice article. I'm not too concerned about news at this point in the cycle. Maybe that's my mistake.  

I figure, I've got enough in storage if I turn out to be epically wrong -- the alt coin boom was very kind to me and there was so much money on the table. I could still panic buy at a profit now if I want to. But I just don't believe this rally.

[ChartBuddy]

[spooderman]

erm, anyone watching?

[granathus]

Ok, we are tumbling down to 800's again, maybe lower?

[aazssx]

ATH today?

'Almost To Hell'

[thoughtfan]

That is another stumbling block for economists.  Conventional economic wisdom states that... Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion.  Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency.  If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?

FTFY

This is one of the beauties of the Bitcoin experiment.  With time we will get to know whether a deflationary currency is good for or bad for 'an economy', rather its participants.  Start with the assumption that 'deflation is bad' and it doesn't matter how you predict the future of bitcoin you have to conclude it will not end well.  Many here believe just as strongly that a deflationary currency is fantastic.  But after millenia of theorising and arguing we don't have to any more.  We can just wait and see (and participate in the experiment or decline to, as we wish).

[JakeGold]

Rarely a boring day in the bitcoin sphere 

[Bitcoines]

small repairs?

[ToTheZeroth]

That is another stumbling block for economists.  Infation encourages people to spend or invest their currency as soon as possible, thus keeping the economy in motion.  Deflation has the opposite effect, it encourages people to hoard the currency.  If bitcoins increase in value, they will be hoarded, and therfore will be less used in trade, and therefore their usefulness will be limited, and therefore their value will collapse. How will this paradox get resolved?

This is of course a perfectly valid argument (and a common one), but what about:

1. Even if people hoard in order to further their wealth, they will still have to eventually buy something with their money, or the furthering of their wealth was all in vain (diving in a McDucky sea of physical bitcoin aside). So money will still be spent, except it can be spent when people want to spend it, with no outside pressure.

2. If the value should start to collapse due to low usefulness due to hoarding, then the hoarders would get an incentive to stop hoarding, which would make it more useful again (giving the hoarders a new reason to hoard, and thus a new reason not to hoard, etc.). This will bring a little volatility (much less than today's), but I certainly see a case for an equilibrium.

Disclaimer: I am not an economist. I'm making guesses here (if that separates me from the economists).

[traderCJ]

Holy moly, dumb luck.  I cashed out a bunch of BTC on stamp for profit raking right before this happened.

[EuroTrash]

what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?

[Erdogan]

Predictable changes, like a steady inflation or deflation, or seasonal variations. People can adapt to them. Volatility is unpredictable changes in value
[...]

I suppose you could define some measure of volatility that is the degree to which the value differ from the theoretical underlaying exponential adoption curve. This would be stretching the reality.

Price will rise, basically with adoption.  My guess 2-5% per year.

Hold it. You fucked up my message here

Price will rise, basically with adoption.

This is during the implementation phase.

My guess 2-5% per year.

This is the end game, after adoption is completed to the level where number of new adoptors equals number of users leaving bitcoin.

[lucas.sev]

what was that? Sharp knife on all three major exchanges at the same time?

mtgox was last