Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.

That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose

It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk. By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.

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[macsga]

However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.

That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose

It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk. By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.

+1

[windjc]

And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.

How come I am so much richer than you if all I do is to handle money, and I do it so badly?   How old are you, 22?

EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.

What were the differences in the bubbles' endings?

Seriously? I'm 40. And I am willing to bet, if we compared "Wealth" outside of bitcoin - which you had a considerable head start in, I would own you.  So let's not even go there.

And if you don't know that the 2011 bubble went below its previous starting point and didnt fully recover for 1 1/2 years while the 2013 bubble never dipped below its starting point while recovering several times faster, then I don't know what to say to you except that sometimes, not always, but sometimes you come across as an arrogant prick.

[rpietila]

I'm 40.

Ah OK, let's leave it there. I remember your entrance to the forum and was thinking oh sheez what a kid.... 

I appreciate your way of making money for you, and will tell when I have closed my trade, and how much I made. Peace?

[fr33d0miz3r]

And if you don't know that the 2011 bubble went below its previous starting point

The 2011 bubble's starting point was $0.06.
The bottom after the crash was $1.99

[windjc]

I'm 40.

Ah OK, let's leave it there. I remember your entrance to the forum and was thinking oh sheez what a kid.... 

I appreciate your way of making money for you, and will tell when I have closed my trade, and how much I made. Peace?

Kid at heart maybe. Yes. But deadly serious about creating wealth.

I never trade more than 20% of my BTC. And its for short trades anyway. So I have no reason to argue with you really, we have difference of opinions from time to time but I think we both want it to go to the moo --- well, you know where I'm talking about.

Let's just allow ourselves to agree or disagree and not make it personal. I'm not an idiot. I understand all your charts and graphs (and all the others I see on this forum).  And I formulate my predictions based on the totality of information available. I've done pretty damn well so far.

I plan on having my own type of castle too.

[windjc]

And if you don't know that the 2011 bubble went below its previous starting point

The 2011 bubble's starting point was $0.06.
The bottom after the crash was $1.99

Oh, the log chart. Ok. But I was not referring to the log chart.

[Vycid]

However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.

That is just plain misunderstanding. I know that probabilities add to 1 and I should not invest more than I can afford to lose

It is exactly the ordinary people who gamble with all their wealth daily (by taking a mortgage, for example). They are taking a serious financial risk. I am never taking any financial risk. By being risk-free I have been able to pursue the opportunities and grow our family wealth at about 51% APR over 11 years.

There is no earthly way to make 51% APR without the assumption of substantial risk. The best hedge funds don't manage 20%. Hell, trying to make 0% APR is still associated with nonzero risk. I think it'd do you some good to acknowledge the role luck has clearly played for you.

Anyway, we're in agreement about the gambling aspect. The difference - sometimes subtle - between gambling and investing is often lost on people, especially around here. It is never wise to have 100% of one's wealth invested in any one thing, even an apparent black swan such as Bitcoin. The outsize fraction of my portfolio that Bitcoin presently constitutes is largely of Bitcoin's own doing (and my ASICMiner derivatives trading).

I think it would be good to remind people here bent on making a quick buck - if you are gambling, there is always a house. If you aren't sure who the house is, one thing is clear: it isn't you.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Oh, the log chart. Ok. But I was not referring to the log chart.

Whatever. Log or not log.

To be honest, it was the first Bitcoin's bubble, so we can say that the starting point was $0.

[seleme]

640 ask wall on stamp at 850.

[iarsenaux]

640 ask wall on stamp at 850.

hi. do you have any idea why they put a wall on that price? newbie on trading here.

[NamelessOne]

640 ask wall on stamp at 850.

hi. do you have any idea why they put a wall on that price? newbie on trading here.

Either trying to force the market downwards or a stupid legitimate sell that can accidentally prevent the price from climb.

[seleme]

640 ask wall on stamp at 850.

hi. do you have any idea why they put a wall on that price? newbie on trading here.

Looks like he seriously wants to sell it as some 80 coins were already sold from it.

Sometimes (more often) big walls are used to push the price in direction they want.

[iarsenaux]

i think it's really not good to listen to this while deciding whether to buy or sell.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw9CALKOvAI

[Vycid]

Regarding the Coinbase Series B funding:

$25M is a substantial amount in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Very substantial. A couple of months ago, that would have constituted ~2.5% of the market cap; today it's still a very significant ~0.25%. This is for a startup in Series B.

These investors obviously see a long-term potential for Bitcoin far beyond $1000/ea or this wouldn't make sense at all. Venture capital expects exits at 10x profits or more for their successful ventures. That can't be reasonably expected in our current market.

The VC groups putting money into Coinbase are connected and influential. They know the sentiment in the big investment firms. This investment would not have been made if they were doubtful about the reception of Bitcoin.

Wall Street is coming, probably sooner rather than later.

[seleme]

640 ask wall on stamp at 850.

hi. do you have any idea why they put a wall on that price? newbie on trading here.

Either trying to force the market downwards or a stupid legitimate sell that can accidentally prevent the price from climb.

He didn't cause lot of panic yet,quite contrary, 12-13% were bought already. Guess people are waiting to see if 850$ will be broken at Gox.

[seleme]

and removed...

[Vycid]

and removed...

Someone somewhere is feeling stupid.

[cfrm]

Selling before 'China wakes up' is starting to become a good strategy. Luckily I did last night, so I'll have a little extra BTC this morning 

Once again.

[fr33d0miz3r]

Lol. No one wants to short BTC on Bitfinex now