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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25640050 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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November 04, 2021, 05:09:28 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

So, CSW taking the stand today in Florida.

What's the over/under on him being charged with contempt within the first two hours of him being on the stand?

*sigh*

My hope for that sort of thing is fairly low.  I feel like hes going to get away with very little bad happening to him at all.

Perhaps I am just projecting my fears.

I will be VERY happy to have been wrong.

I think he's playing with fire. All it takes is pissing off a judge once. Then it's all downhill from there.

What I hope is the judge is able to see what the meta game is he's trying to play.  He has made it very clear online. 

It's all part of a long con.  But there are several sub cons going on at the same time. 

Here is what I see as the big story arc:

1. Establish via the court systems that he is SN.
2. Use the courts to try to force the Bitcoin devs to give him control over a list of blocks he claims to own without having to use the private keys.

The courts have been fairly clear that they are not trying to decide whether he is Satoshi or not, I think.  But one possible thing is they could claim he owes billions of dollars worth of BTC to the plaintifs.  And if so I think the plan is to say he's lost the keys to those blocks and the only way he can get the money to pay the plaintif is if the court orders the BTC devs to basically code his access into Bitcoin Core.

That is a thumbnail of the long con.  And it is entirely ridiculous.  BUT the only thing that scares me is BTC has BIG enemies at the nation state level.  Depending on how corrupted our world is, I could imagine a scenario in which the courts were told to do it.  The is far fetched and nearly impossible to imagine.

The lesser con is to convince his faithful of the above plan.  That is what the BSV people are believing is the way at this point.  LAW is going to grant him the access to those blocks, and he is going to crash BTC and buy all the BSV with it and usher in his kingdom.  And they will dump all their BSV that they have collected up over time (?) on them.  Another angle here is they fail to get any traction on their plan to rewrite the BTC client to give him millions of coins, but they have well prepared the failthful to allow him to take those blocks on BSV.  So I think that's the last level fallback.  (Obviously legal claims on BCH will also be made, and probably fare as badly as they will on BTC)

Or perhaps Calvin Ayre is the anti-christ, and CSW is his prophet.  And BSV is the mark of the beast.  A panopticon  of evil.

You think I am joking with that last part... but there are people who believe this line as well, and I think CSW has played into the image with all the red socks etc...   The anti-christ is indeed called "the father of lies".  It kinda fits.

I seriously hope the courts crush him, and we can really start to put this chapter fully in the rear view.

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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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November 04, 2021, 05:29:55 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still sideways... currently $62032USD/$77094CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Ho freaking hum.

...funny one llama...

You do know the difference between a llama and an alpaca, don't you?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Alpaca

Hm?

Your link seems to justify why to NOT refer to proudhon as an Alpaca.

I was referring to him as a donkey recently too... so I cannot see any downside to mixing it up with that loosed-lipped moose wannabe.

Any particular reason transactions are slow for the last couple of days? Mempool filling up?  Cool

Also observing a slight dumperino... coiling up for the face-melting stage?  Cool

Even if the mempool might be having periods of scattered filling up as shown here:

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),1w,weight

The block times are not slow.. Currently, for this difficulty period (which has only been in effect for about 4 days.. so less than 1/3 of the whole period) they are about 2-4% faster than average.. at least at the time of my posting this response.

Latest Block:   708197  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.8164%  (582 / 560.60 expected, 21.4 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                           
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                           
Next Difficulty:   between 22062403353132 and 22491039247481
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8609% and +3.8399%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 12:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 13, 2021 at 11:37 PM  (in 9d 14h 12m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 14, 2021 at 5:52 AM  (in 9d 20h 27m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 38m 53s and 13d 17h 53m 51s


https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
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November 04, 2021, 05:43:45 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), JayJuanGee (1)


well, it's a "bit" optimistic, but i like it.

That said, what would be a % of WO that would think that 84K wave 2 "top" is IT and would start selling as it would go down a bit down to re-test 65K?
Nerves would be fried remembering 2017, right?

Kind of look forward to this because I know that obnoxious bitboy would surely sell there.
bitboy=Vinny Lindham of 2017
can't stand that loudmouth (both of them, actually)..
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November 04, 2021, 05:52:33 PM

Seems like someone took that Shiba Inu, dragged it through a rainforest and left it for dead.

Good.
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November 04, 2021, 05:54:02 PM


Merited, mainly for the style of writing. I just love to read you, Jay. Even if it takes me forever, sometimes...
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November 04, 2021, 06:01:08 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


That's nice, but the reference to Deepak Chopra spoiled it all...
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November 04, 2021, 06:01:35 PM


Explanation
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Observing No-Coiners.


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November 04, 2021, 06:27:13 PM


well, it's a "bit" optimistic, but i like it.

That said, what would be a % of WO that would think that 84K wave 2 "top" is IT and would start selling as it would go down a bit down to re-test 65K?
Nerves would be fried remembering 2017, right?

Kind of look forward to this because I know that obnoxious bitboy would surely sell there.
bitboy=Vinny Lindham of 2017
can't stand that loudmouth (both of them, actually)..


It’s less optimistic as Proudhon version is….
Both versions are confirmed by math and science I have heard
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November 04, 2021, 06:28:20 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), RejectedBanana (2), d_eddie (1), dragonvslinux (1)

Take a quadratic regression of time as a function of bitcoin’s daily closing price since July 7, 2010 (Mt Gox and Bitstamp concatenated):



Solve the quadratic and invert the axes, putting yourself back in the time domain:



Divide by 2.5; call this bitcoin’s historic price floor:



Manipulate the price floor to fit the halving cycles by superposing a cyclical function on the monotonic trend:



The yellow trace extrapolates an ad hoc curve-fitting of the halving cycles.

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November 04, 2021, 06:40:41 PM


 It's a lamp named "Arrie".  What a tough crowd!
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November 04, 2021, 07:01:25 PM


Explanation
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November 04, 2021, 07:02:50 PM


 Thanks ChartBuddy old pal.  I knew you'd get it.
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November 04, 2021, 07:03:51 PM

A quick Q&A with our resident inquirer.

There is a slogan like that.

Inquiring minds want to know.

AmiNOTrite?

 Wink



Tasty find, dude!

That particular brand of Twitter math&science places the top at 450k-520k. I could live with it. Even averaging with PlanB's most conservative, old estimate of ~100k, it still checks out at 270k-310k. Not sure about you, but I could still live with that.

Weren't you the guy in 2018 (of course not the only one) who was pissing and moaning about how long that  it might take to get back to $20k and even expressing concerns that we might never get back to $20k?

I might have moaned about how long it would take, hoping in vain that the bull wasn't over yet. I don't think I expressed concerns that we wouldn't get back though.

Fair enough.  I may have either been misremembering or maybe you were seeming to put the "getting back" at a place that seemed to be quite far into the future.

I am not even blaming you, but I am still wondering how you could convert from pissing and moaning to NOT being excited as fuck that we are 3x higher than the price that you had been pissing and moaning about being potentially unreachable further... so wouldn't anything above $20k be a gift and/or icing on the cake of what your previous considerations had been.

Not in the following cycle Tongue

With our investment into bitcoin, should we really realistically expect that we are guaranteed some level of return?

Really, I am still happy to just keep up with various other possible alternatives, so that there is not really any other asset classes that are outperforming bitcoin... and for me, it just seems that on an ongoing basis, we are not only outperforming other assets, but bitcoin has been heads and shoulders above any other assets.

Of course, there are always questions about future performance and even questions about short term performance for guys that get distracted into various shitcoins or various other ways to move around their value.. yet for me, I feel quite great that my bitcoin does not really cause a whole hell of a lot of management.. even though I do spend a lot of time participating in discussions about it and even the employment  of my system and tweaking my system from time to time does take some time too.. even though guys like jbreher had lectured me about his employment of a similar system being easy to implement and carry out (and surely I take those kinds of representations with some decently large grains of salt, too).

There are also a lot of ways to both accumulate BTC, to maintain and to liquidate that would be less time consuming than mine (such as just employing pure DCA) so maybe I am trying to accomplish some other personal objectives through some of my playing around with bitcoin and the ways that I choose to implement some additional strategies to both make my system more complex but also provide me with a variety of talking points regarding some of my experimentations and learnings along the way - hopefully I am learning more than I am forgetting... hahahahaha



Am I analyzing you too much?  

It could be a possible way of expressing the situation, yes.

Overall, you seem to be pretty good about not taking matters too personally, and surely since we are participating in a public thread there may well be several points that come up that are not even meant to be on any kind of personal level, just whatever you had chosen to post (whether now or previously) raises some questions or concerns (at least for this cat)...

I frequently get uncomfortable too when I am being analyzed in various ways, and probably it becomes more uncomfortable when it seems that the analyzer is either being unfair, getting things wrong or even raising some inconvenient points.  

By the way, that reminds me of some of the posters here (not even referring to you) and even some bitcoiners who I have heard in the podcasting space who sometimes describe their own lil selfies as having such strong hands all the way through 2014, 2015, 2016 and even at various subsequent points, and there is a decent amount of reframing of history that is going on that even seems to contradict their own actions.  So for example, they describe their lil selfies as so damned brave during various BTC price down turns and assign so much credit to their own knowing that the BTC price would bounce back and have subsequent exponential spurts and they were something like "all seeing" during those down periods, but not even their portfolios or their actions reflect their levels of concerned such as 2015, there were not too many guys backing up their trucks and stocking up on mid $200 bitcoin (and I surely don't claim to be buying hands over fists either), even though their description of the situation should have justified their buying in 2015 rather than waiting until 2016 or even 2017 to stock up more with cash/credit that they already had available in 2015... blah blah blah.

Part of my point is that sure, I do get uncomfortable being analyzed, even if sometimes it can be helpful for my sorting out my own thoughts and/or just attempting to better work through a topic that might be uncomfortable for me in various regards, especially how it had been framed by the one that I feel to be overly analyzing me, my actions or my statements-.

Part of the bitterness of some of the guys in 2018 was that there was some regrets about their not having had shaved off more on the way to $20k..
That would be called coreck, as someone likes to say.

hahahahahaha

hindsight can be 2020... and probably no matter what we do in time 1, we can figure out ways to have regrets in time 2 in ways that we could have ended up playing our hands better - but at the same time, we can also realize that we did not really know at time 1, so we may well have already played our hand as good as we could have, but in retrospect, we are being unfair to ourselves in terms of believing that we should have known better, blah blah blah.

Manipulate the price floor to fit the halving cycles by superposing a cyclical function on the monotonic trend:



The yellow trace extrapolates an ad hoc curve-fitting of the halving cycles.

The bottoms of that last chart come off as somewhat conservative, but I suppose that bottoms do tend to be conservative anyhow... but seeing so much sub $100k bottom projection in 2022 and into 2023 causes me less enthusiasm than seeing tops (even though I have been growing more and more fond of bottom analysis in recent years).

I will note that I can still appreciate the overall chart as still being quite bullish if we would thereafter consider that the projection of the yellow line would likely have some flat in 2023 and then perhaps start to slope UPpity in later 2023..and so at some point our bottom projection would thereafter get permanently above $100k... maybe around late 2024? - early 2025-ish?
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November 04, 2021, 07:09:07 PM



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November 04, 2021, 07:15:26 PM
Last edit: November 04, 2021, 07:37:17 PM by HI-TEC99
Merited by El duderino_ (8), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)


well, it's a "bit" optimistic, but i like it.

That said, what would be a % of WO that would think that 84K wave 2 "top" is IT and would start selling as it would go down a bit down to re-test 65K?
Nerves would be fried remembering 2017, right?

Kind of look forward to this because I know that obnoxious bitboy would surely sell there.
bitboy=Vinny Lindham of 2017
can't stand that loudmouth (both of them, actually)..


It’s less optimistic as Proudhon version is….
Both versions are confirmed by math and science I have heard

Proudhon's version depends on whether he's in bull mode or not.



Ok, guys, now that I've bought in again I'm switching to bull mode.  Rally on!  The fundamentals are sound.  Notice how I've changed my avatar to reflect my new position.

Quite times are always followed by volatile times. We will soon see some stronger action in the next days

My hunch is that the next rally phase is going to leave as many bodies in its wake as the decline from the $32 high has - many people who are out BTC and into cash aren't going to be able to jump back on quick enough and will end up taking a big hit to their BTC position.


I guess this is as good a time as ever to admit that I went all in back at $2.4 but have had my finger very nervously over the sell button ever since.


...

Hey proudhon, weren't you saying it was going to die under $2.5?  Now you're saying you bought below $2.5... so you were a closet bull all along, eh?

I wouldn't say that.  I sincerely thought the price was going to fall through $2.00 and keep going.  When it looked like things were going to go better than expected, I hopped back on.  And in the nick of time, too.  
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November 04, 2021, 08:01:25 PM


Explanation
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November 04, 2021, 08:50:11 PM


That's nice, but the reference to Deepak Chopra spoiled it all...

Deepak Chopra has much relevance to both meth and scions!
As much as, say, Riley Reid or Wile E. Coyote.
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November 04, 2021, 08:54:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pSCH9XO04I

Ah you know .... Simulations....  Grin
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November 04, 2021, 09:01:18 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)




                                                     Blowjob?


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November 04, 2021, 09:01:32 PM


Explanation
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