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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8.4%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.4%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.6%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8.4%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (14.5%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 17 (20.5%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.6%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (7.2%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.6%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.4%)
>$40,000 - 16 (19.3%)
Total Voters: 83

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25620658 times)
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October 30, 2021, 05:32:43 PM

Yesterday, i had an interesting discussion about intelligence being inversely correlated to the average amount of emoticons one is using in his posts...



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy ...  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin ... Cool . . .  Tongue . . .  Kiss  Kiss  Kiss ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy ... Grin ... Angry Sad Shocked ... kk... fine! I luv you 2! <3 .... #nohomo  Tongue  Tongue ... Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


*edit():   There was a Tv show where they exemplified tweeting only with emojis and ppl would have to decipher their nonsense. It was weirdly pleasing that I was getting their language and some others were struggling. Tongue Tongue Tongue  Roll Eyes  Shocked ...  Grin  Grin  Grin ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy
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October 30, 2021, 06:01:35 PM


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October 30, 2021, 06:16:20 PM

Yesterday, i had an interesting discussion about intelligence being inversely correlated to the average amount of emoticons one is using in his posts...



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy ...  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin ... Cool . . .  Tongue . . .  Kiss  Kiss  Kiss ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy ... Grin ... Angry Sad Shocked ... kk... fine! I luv you 2! <3 .... #nohomo  Tongue  Tongue ... Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


*edit():   There was a Tv show where they exemplified tweeting only with emojis and ppl would have to decipher their nonsense. It was weirdly pleasing that I was getting their language and some others were struggling. Tongue Tongue Tongue  Roll Eyes  Shocked ...  Grin  Grin  Grin ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Good proof of my point, thanks  Wink
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October 30, 2021, 06:19:00 PM

Yesterday, i had an interesting discussion about intelligence being inversely correlated to the average amount of emoticons one is using in his posts...



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy ...  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin  Grin ... Cool . . .  Tongue . . .  Kiss  Kiss  Kiss ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy ... Grin ... Angry Sad Shocked ... kk... fine! I luv you 2! <3 .... #nohomo  Tongue  Tongue ... Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


*edit():   There was a Tv show where they exemplified tweeting only with emojis and ppl would have to decipher their nonsense. It was weirdly pleasing that I was getting their language and some others were struggling. Tongue Tongue Tongue  Roll Eyes  Shocked ...  Grin  Grin  Grin ...  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Good proof of my point, thanks  Wink

Get on with the times grandpa! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXzJR7K0wK0


 Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  <<< million /eyerolls stare ... Tongue Tongue
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October 30, 2021, 07:01:25 PM


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October 30, 2021, 07:17:47 PM
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BTC at 1 mill is coming but very likely it will be a while.

I think there is a lot of interest from big players that will effort to pack the price lower.

 So 100k+ is about 50-50 this cycle
 and 300k+ is doubtful in 2021 or 2022 under 10% shot.

We might be somewhat in a similar ballpark in terms of some of our expectations of numbers.. and in the calculations that I did below, it looks like I am placing supra $100k at less than 50/50.. only about 47%.. even though I am shooting the numbers a wee bit out of my ass, too.

On the other hand, I have my doubts about $1 million being as BIG of a stretch as you seem to be making it out to be.  Of course, $1 million or higher has decently low odds for this cycle... probably similar as I had estimated in earlier posts of less than 3% (links to my August estimates).  My prior numbers had not really gotten stuck on exactly $1 million because of course that would be a resistance point, so I had described our ending this cycle in $800k to $1.5 million as having 2.5% odds, and I had described supra $1.5 million as having less than 0.5% odds.  So, of course $1 million falls in the midst of a range that would need to be hit.. with pretty decently low odds for this particular cycle.. and maybe my numbers are bit too optimistic, I am not sure.. I am not really opposed to revising my current estimates (see below) downwards a wee bit, yet I believe for now my projections are not outrageous or anything like that.

Furthermore, depending where this cycle ends, $1 million comes decently in solid striking distance for the next cycle.  Of course, if $67,010 ends up being the top or something below $100k, then maybe it becomes a bit more difficult to reach $1 million-ish numbers, but if we end this cycle anywhere between $300k and $600k or even higher then $1 million plus is put into a kind of easy-peasy striking distance for the next cycle and even more in the cycle thereafter.  

I might even start to put my lil selfie in the category of overly-optimistic wack-job because when I look at my August projections on this topic, I can add up all the projections above $300k and confirm that at that time, I had calculated $300k plus BTC prices as having about 15% odds of happening... and in subsequent times (the past two months) BTC price moves have largely bolstered my projections rather than even suggesting that I should revise them in either direction..

Likely we can even presume less exponential BTC price explosions in future cycles and still reasonably reach $1 million in one or two cycles.  Let's set death of the cycle aside for the moment, especially since such death has not even close to have come to true of happening beyond theoretical projections that seem more like imaginening rather than reality.

In essence, you incentivized me to revisit some of my August numbers that I had been projecting several times.  Many links to my previous attempts at UPpity BTC price projections and explanations for the chart can be found in this post.


Updated BTC price projections - attempting to account for today's price and today's seeming BTC price dynamics:


above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - nearly most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

$650k to $800k  - aggressively bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k  - Optimistically highly bullish  -   about 7.75% odds

$200k to $450k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 15.5% odds

$100k to $200k  - mediocre bullish -   about 16.5% odds

$80k to $100k  - relatively bearish (not too bullish) -   about 6% odds

$67k to $80k  - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 4.5% odds


down from here ($67k as the top)  - most bearish - but possible  -   about 42.5% odds


I believe that those add up to 100%, and my numbers have not really changed too much, and maybe they are a bit too optimistic/bullish..

A lot depends on gear being sold to mine. I figure asic builders could attempt to flood the market with gear in 2022.  This was done in 2018.

I continue to NOT find mining as much if any of a leading factor in terms of BTC price movements.. surely on the margins differences could happen ..

Price went down and diff went up from jan till oct 2018 .  then the market finally reflected over-saturation of gear. the diff and price both slid form oct 2018 to dec 2018.  I started my 4 partner mine in dec 2018.

Seems that you are describing shadows on the wall of a cave to me... in other words a big so what that is ONLY loosely, if at all, associated with what is really happening... but hey.. believe what you like.


I have to think asic gear builders want to do this sell of gear bigly sooner or later. as they may feel 1 or 2  1/2ings  will spell the end of large mining.  Savetherainforest may think 2 cycles are left to heavy BTC mining.

We will have to see how the mining evolves in terms of incentives to do it... I doubt that it is going to drop off as BIGGEDly as you are projecting.. and sure you are the supposed specialist but I don't see miners going away even if the fee incentives change including the ongoing halvenings of the subsidies... We have 6.25.. then we have 3.125.. then we have 1.5625... then we have 0.78125.. there are likely going to continue to be incentives to mine with reward and fees.. but whatever, I may well be dead by the time this gets to below 1 BTC per 10 minutes.. and that 0.78125 BTC will probably be more than a $million at that time (that would be around $1,280,000 per BTC)... that is more than 3 cycles from now.. #just saying... seems that the odds are pretty decent that 0.78125 BTC is going to be worth more than a $million during the cycle in which that becomes the reward..  (You can believe what you like, and I can believe what I like about what is going to be the state of BTC affairs 14 years-ish from now), so likely incentive to mine is going to continue to exist (- fees will come close to the same as the reward.. or at least the combination of fees and reward will create plenty of ongoing incentives to mine our lil fiend (aka king daddy)...   No need to fear.. no need to fear.

As for me I am not a kid I am 64 and will not continue mining past 70 mostly due to my age as it is work to do it.

With all my kids dead and just me and the wife I would not mind enjoying travel and zero work from 70 on.  We will see what unfolds .

Having to work into your 60s and beyond does not seem to be a good thing.. .unless you really want to.. .. so yeah, if you are already in your 60s and your are working then you are in whatever state that you are... and if you are able to reasonably foresee a way out of working earlier than 6 years from now that would be good too.. and difficult for me to know for sure.. Even if you were able to aggressively DCA into BTC for a few years.. or lump sum, hard to know if that would be advisable, even though so far in BTC's history we have continued to see bitcoin prices to be higher 4 years later from whenever time a guy invested.. not sure if that dynamic is going to continue to play out, even though there does not really seem to be any compelling argument against it.. at least not so far for anyone who has some kinds of ideas regarding some of the ongoing adoption and network effects dynamics continuing to happen in bitcoinlandia.

For now stack your sats.

Depends on if you reached your BTC accumulation goals or not.


and remember when I do cash coin it is for running the business.

We have a lot of expansion coming maybe 100k watts to { 300kwatts } to 900 kwatts

we grew from 100 to 300 kwatts in 2021

Those business decisions are for you to decide if they are good uses of your capital and your time.

Edit: After posting, I realized that I had not reiterated in this post regarding my views about what I mean by "this particular cycle."  I consider that the earliest that this cycle would end would be by the end of this calendar year, but I  consider pretty decent odds that the cycle could actually drag out into 2022 and peak as late as the third quarter of 2022. Sure bitcoin and its cycle could do all kinds of shit, but just trying to outline the more likely of scenarios rather than getting into fringe theories. 

I'm thinking that the BTC price is more likely to peak earlier than the 3rd quarter, so that would be a kind of outlier projection of timelines (that would allow for the potential of shaking more weak hands who believe that they are timing the top blah blah blah), but also the longer that the cycle drags out, then the higher potential price projections numbers would become more likely too.. at least that seems to be the case - including the fact that we already had a decent-sized 56% correction between May and July.. so that kind of a high correction seems to kind of allow more potentiality for a dragging out of the actual UPpity portion of this cycle and even having some potential period of more gradual UPpity along the way with a blow-off top that comes after a decent period of gradual UPpity - including some fake tops along the way too in order to shake many more of the likely weak-hands (who are proclaiming to be strong hands) along the way.
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October 30, 2021, 08:01:25 PM


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October 30, 2021, 08:16:46 PM
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Too bad the banks stole BTCiTcoin. Time to find another currency. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

That's a pretty misleading premise Savethe RF.

No one should be giving any kind of benefit of the doubt when you are spouting out (the opposite of truth) nonsense like that.

Only a really uninformed person would actually believe that BTC is bank coin, even though some banks and financial institutions are being forced into some kind of BTC adoption if they want to continue to have some kind of credibility - including some kind of a role in the finances of actual people.

[edited out]
I wish you no ill, but avoiding Bitcoin to find the next 240000 x will be, in hindsight, a very bad mistake.

Yes.. there seems to be some kind of ongoing nocoiner pattern with Save the RF... Some members have suggested that there have been times in which he made some normal posts, but his periods of normal posting have been rare as fuck. Maybe you could get around 1/20 of his posts to have some level of temporary coherence.. He has always been a goofball, troll and misleading dweeb who seems to have little to no interest in actually learning about bitcoin or taking some kind of meaningful non-gambling stance in terms of his investment strategy whether talking about bitcoin or some shitcoin of the day that he wants to include in his muddled revelations of the world.

In other words, if we were to even want to attempt to read any kind of possible genuineness in what he has been attempting to do, we would see that someone like him is continuing to include the kinds of nonsense presumptions that it is better to invest in other coins/projects because bitcoin has already pumped blah blah blah... we see this from him, and I recall several similar smarter than everyone else proclamations in 2017....and they were saying that their shitcoin was outperforming bitcoin and bitcoin does not have any upward price potential and that kind of nonsense, and even if we might have presumed some kind of a cost basis of $700-ish for bitcoin in 2017, we still end up getting around 28x for the high point, and even nearly 5x when we consider the doldrums of the greatest subsequent bitcoin price drop in 2018. .. so it's as if 5x to 28x is not enough.. and we see the same kinds of mistakes being made in terms of presumptions regarding bitcoin's lack of upside potential, and sure I become guilty of the issue too in terms of talking about bitcoin top potential, yet when we are making any investment, we need to be considering both the top potential and the bottom potential, and sure many of us already know these kinds of calculations.. ..

And it is not as if we are suddenly going to be relieved of the trolls, shills and bitcoin naysayers in this thread.  Even his ongoing and seemingly willful misspelling of bitcoin should show that he is not even attempting to be genuine... even though sometimes it probably is still helpful to rebutt and to clarify his nonsense... not that there are very many folks here who do not completely see through him.. but at the same time, I see no reason to be nice to guys like that.. who are coming to threads like this in order to attempt to mislead folks even if they may well ONLY be successful in misleading a seemingly increasingly small number of newbies.
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October 30, 2021, 09:01:34 PM


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October 30, 2021, 09:03:18 PM

DGB is already very old..
I was trading DGB in 14-15..
I remember it clearly as one of the key arbs between polo and cryptsy as cryptsy was crashing, one of the few wallets that would still work, and I knew the place well enough to figure out what wallets would still WD so I was arbing back and forth like crazy right up until it shut right down..


I am still optimistic for this halving cycle, the next, and the next..

I figure in the absolute worst case scenario, if I just keep plugging away as a poor wage slave pleb just making enough money to comfortably survive, within the next 8-10 years my Bitcoin stash should turn into “fuck you” money and afford me an early modest retirement before I am even 40..

And that’s assuming I don’t even accumulate any more coin between now and then, which is very unlikely, as I seem to just love playing with crypto from time to time, and by playing I mean collecting more satoshis..

I find it a wee bit strange that you are considering that you need another 8-10 years for your stash to reach fuck you status, while at the same time, you are proclaiming that you are not going to engage in BTC accumulation through traditional means, but instead fucking around with shitcoins.

Whatever people never seem to learn... even some of the old timers here.

Think about it eddie13.  I have probably been harassing you for most of your forum membership, and you been here almost as long as me, and you admitted to shitcoining and learning your lessons and blah blah blah.. but you surely appear to have not learned a whole hell of a lot.   By the way congratulations on getting to 7 years forum membership.

I understand as well that mistakes have likely been made along the way, but just consider if you had mildly aggressive DCA strategy of something like $50 per week for the whole of your forum membership, you would have close to 19 BTC at this time, with an investment cost of less than $20k, which even if that might not put you at fuck you status in terms of having some futureproof in your investment holdings for a guy that is still barely in his 30s, but surely that level of BTC accumulation should be a good base for a 8-10 years target in terms of wanting to be in fuck you status (right before being in your 40s).. and if you were to have that 19BTC amount, then maybe we could presume that you could accumulate another BTC or two in the next 8-10 years.. even with a modestly aggressive ongoing DCA strategy, buying on dips and lumpsum investing in bitcoin without over-stretching your personal budget, overly gambling with your BTC or getting distracted by shitcoin nonsense... but whatever, guys are going to shitcoin and get distracted in various gambling ways rather than engaging in ongoing prudent investing into BTC.. DCA is amongst the strongest of methods, and surely I am not opposed to supplementing DCA with buying on dips and lump sum investing too...

I had done a kind of projection ahead regarding the number of coins needed for fuck you status based on the 208-week moving average that is now at $17k.. and we probably could project the 208-week moving average to go up at least 12% to 20% per year.. so you could chart out your fuck you status yourself based on such trajectories.

Are you sure the R-Word doesn't apply to him?

Pretty sure.  What's the name of someone who has taken so many hallucinogens that they can no longer reason clearly?  I probably came close to that one myself... but I think he's way over that line.

I understand that people want to get all SJW with the term "retarded," and I personally see nothing at all wrong with the word in terms of throwing out a general insult at a person without even needing to get into literal particularities of whether it is accurate or fair or not.  Someone like Save the RF deserves a lot of insults and rebutting for the level of nonsense and distraction that he throws out.. if it is ONLY going to save a few people from actually taking him seriously for more than half a second. 

By the way, I am also not even opposed to considering some of the substantive points that are made by Save the RF or other trolls who are fairly obviously disingenuous... Each of us decides in our own discretion whether it may well be worth our time to engage with nonsense or even to use the nonsense as a springboard to discuss potentially legitimate/valid points.

In other words, it remains your choice whether you want to go all lovey-dovey with Save the RF.. or to treat any of his ideas seriously or even to use some of the ideas as springboard discussion points, whether those points had been made from a place of retard or otherwise.  Wink Wink Tongue
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October 30, 2021, 09:44:08 PM
Last edit: October 30, 2021, 11:57:50 PM by Biodom

Sup...when will this consolidation end?
What do you guys think...maybe this one will be a super-cycle?
If so, it might slowly go up in 2021-Q1 2022 to a local peak at 100-130K, then "slighly" dip (maybe to 50 from 100 or to 60 from 130K)...and then starts going in 2023-2025, finally reaching millions?

Apart from bitcoin-weird things are happening -maybe you noticed (insane dog memes, virtual land coin going crazy after Meta announcement, etc, etc).
My take: the reality might look shitty for some people in the future, who would then spent inordinate amounts of time in VR.
Basically, something similar to a Ready Player One world.
I hope that we might be more 'real", but I am afraid that the path is to the digital "opium" for the majority of the populace.

Bitcoin would likely be for more affluent enjoying the "reality" in their enclaves/citadels, and the majority would live using doge, shib, mana (or name some other s-coin example) in the virtual worlds (apart from the time spent on dreadful "work" in Amazon warehouses, Walmart, etc.)

I am afraid that "they" are going for the setup like this:

bitcoin-very high price, mostly for the wealthy ($1 mil-$10mil/coin).
doge seems to "want' to go to $1 (replaces $ for poorer folks)
shib seems to 'want" to go to 1c (replaces change).

therefore, you may pay for a big mac with doge+shib and pay for a new yacht with btc (or maybe borrow against your btc and then pay).

TL;DR We are probably replacing the whole fin system, but btc will NOT be the only transactional cryptocurrency. Sorry to mention some coins-just to make a point.
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October 30, 2021, 10:01:24 PM


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October 30, 2021, 10:54:17 PM
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Bitcoin would likely be for more affluent enjoying the "reality" in their enclaves/citadels, and the majority would live using doge, shib, mana (or name some other s-coin example) in the virtual worlds (apart from the time spent on dreadful "work" in Amazon warehouses, Walmart, etc.)

Bitcoin is quite usable for casual commerce at $1m/coin with L2 like Lightning. But that will start to have trouble at $100m/coin. But Bitcoin can adapt. I foresee a (soft/hard) fork for sub-sat values coming in the near future.
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October 30, 2021, 10:54:40 PM


And it is not as if we are suddenly going to be relieved of the trolls, shills and bitcoin naysayers in this thread.  Even his ongoing and seemingly willful misspelling of bitcoin should show that he is not even attempting to be genuine... even though sometimes it probably is still helpful to rebutt and to clarify his nonsense... not that there are very many folks here who do not completely see through him.. but at the same time, I see no reason to be nice to guys like that.. who are coming to threads like this in order to attempt to mislead folks even if they may well ONLY be successful in misleading a seemingly increasingly small number of newbies.

Look.... I write "BTCiTcoin" as I do to not trigger pattern recognition in predictive linguistics on mass emulation of the masses that is being constantly performed. I just avoid triggering and f%^&king with the MAIN words that are popular in a word cloud and I do not wish to enforce it. Smiley   ............ If you all dipsh!ts started one day talking like me, the world would be in chaos and no one could know wtf is happening based on the language cuz everyf^cking.one on the planet would be just speaking gibberish in pokemon lingo. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy


*edit(): I also try to not write in the same manner in other parts of the internet. I kinda already said tmi... but lets just assume every account of every nonsense I have on the internet is a role-play persona. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
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October 30, 2021, 11:01:25 PM


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October 30, 2021, 11:40:54 PM

Bitcoin would likely be for more affluent enjoying the "reality" in their enclaves/citadels, and the majority would live using doge, shib, mana (or name some other s-coin example) in the virtual worlds (apart from the time spent on dreadful "work" in Amazon warehouses, Walmart, etc.)

Bitcoin is quite usable for casual commerce at $1m/coin with L2 like Lightning. But that will start to have trouble at $100m/coin. But Bitcoin can adapt. I foresee a (soft/hard) fork for sub-sat values coming in the near future.

In "real" world, yes, my point was that VR worlds usage might be in other tokens, as they are 'native' for particular worlds, as MANA is for Decentraland.
It is a 'currency' of that particular world.
I think that large % of commerce might at some point occur in the VR "worlds", but i could be wrong about that, of course.
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October 31, 2021, 12:08:07 AM

come on buddy let us see a power lift  Grin
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October 31, 2021, 12:26:30 AM

In "real" world, yes, my point was that VR worlds usage might be in other tokens, as they are 'native' for particular worlds, as MANA is for Decentraland.
It is a 'currency' of that particular world.
I think that large % of commerce might at some point occur in the VR "worlds", but i could be wrong about that, of course.

Oh, yeah, I can definitely see that happening. Bitcoin L2s like Stacks can support native tokens with their own monetary policy.
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October 31, 2021, 01:01:24 AM


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