Glad to see you putting your TA cap on
While the shorter time-frames remain bearish, the mid-term (Daily) remains relatively neutral and longer-term (Weekly) remains fully bullish above all it's MAs.
Given the amount of fear and uncertainty in the market based on the shorter-term price action, I wouldn't be surprised to see price wick down to re-test $50K, similar how to $40K was re-tested.
And would you be surprised to see a price wick up to $80k to take advantage of the scaredy cats?
Not really no, anything can happen in a bull market. I'm just not going to speculate too hard on such theories without much basis for it, especially when price is under a relevant distribution level for the time being. If price were to quickly spike above $61K, for sure I'd consider that possibility with a much higher probability. Volatility is at relative lows, so there is a good chance of a big move in either direction, but that direction in the short-term favours the bears, even if in the long-term it'd likely favour the bulls. If the volatility began to favour the bulls, then sure I'd give more validity to that probability.
People didn't like my analysis around $64K when I felt a correction (or at minimum sideways trading) was due either, and therefore remained relatively neutral, but hopefully it avoided some FOMO in order to BTFD instead of chasing the rally that was due a correction, even if minor. Neither did others when price corrected to $45K and many misinterpreted the "golden cross" (that wasn't very golden) before price reached $40K.
Many did like my analysis that $40K would hold back then, even if you were highly sceptical, as well others understandably. As long as my analysis isn't popular, I know it's got value. What worries me more than anything is everyone agreeing that my analysis is useful or accurate, then I know that it's likely wrong. There's a good reason after all that I share it
Has anyone ever told you that patience is a virtue? The inpatient usually get REKT. There's nothing wrong with a healthy price correction in a bull market, rest assured.
Does not seem convincing to me either way in terms of whether there might be a price wick DOWNity or UPpity....
Precisely, you nailed it. It's really not that difficult to identify the indecision in the market right now, from bull traps to bear traps to sideways trading. Classic consolidation below resistance. This is because there is a conflict with short-term bearish pressure and longer-term bullish pressure. This often means down before up, but you can never be sure in these cases.
especially that we have largely been bouncing between about $53k and $61k for slightly more than 2 weeks (while in a bullmarket)..
Again, good analysis here. However the structure of how this is happening is worth paying attention to. This isn't within a parallel channel of consolidation or otherwise a bullish pattern, it's been with lower highs and lower lows, so definitely a time to remain cautious. The lower highs confirms weakness in the price each time it bounces, as do the lower lows. Ie when price goes less and less high each time, it confirms weakness. When price is going down, it's confirming selling pressure. If people would prefer to simply DCA into this dip using a time-based strategy using a blindfold, then for sure I've got no arguments with that idea.
sure with a overall trending DOWNity in the short term, but since when did our lil fiend, aka king daddy care about that kind of technical mumbo-jumbo shit that might last for 2 weeks-ish or perhaps still only about 3 weeks when we are talking about the last ATH?
Bare in mind, king daddy doesn't invest in Bitcoin. King Daddy IS Bitcoin. However, investors of Bitcoin are usually interested if there is 2-3 weeks or downside, or even 2-3 weeks of sideways trading. Human beings are naturally curious beings that like to learn, explore new ideas, theorise on the possibilities of life itself. Bitcoin is a nothing more than a computerized blockchain, it doesn't care.
Let's wait and see. At least at think my analysis is more accurate than idea of of 0s and 1s having feelings
That's something that I think will never truely come to light. Even with AI development etc, I think you forget that Bitcoin is immutable, so even the development of robotics that "theoretically" could artificially generate emotions, doing this with Bitcoin would be near impossible. Remember BCH? That hard fork didn't work either. I doubt a hard fork where Bitcoin starts caring would be successful either!
But I do like the theory of Bitcoin caring and therefore having feelings, it's always interesting to explore different concepts, even if it's only to confirm their irrelevance.
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