That person is the worst liar that we have in the crypto-world. I remember another liar Balaji Srinivasan who predicted in March 2023 that Bitcoin would reach $1 million in 90 days.
Arthur Hayes is a pretty smart guy, if you ever heard him speak, and if you ever read any of his stuff.
Sure you do not need to agree with everything he says or his predictions in order to learn a lot from him.
There are a lot of people who I don't agree with, and they likely are not lying merely when they are wrong or they assign higher probabilities to events.. and surely there sometimes could be some hidden agendas too..
Well, he might be smart to some extent but this time he went really far with his prediction. Can you agree with his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $750k to $1M in 2026?
Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...
In my investment ideas thread,
on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5% that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.
And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...
So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.
Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.
Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.
I really doubt that because it will not likely to happen that soon. I agree that Bitcoin has the protentional to grow even higher than $1M but 2026 is too early to see Bitcoin at that price levels. Let's say he's not a liar but still he's not right with his prediction this time because we all know that Bitcoin needs more community support and wide adoption as well as support from governments to reach that high price levels. If I'm not wrong then most of the governments will shift to CBDCs before 2026 which will make it even harder for Bitcoin to reach that price tag.
You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge (or the appearance of being in charge). I doubt that the government has as much control over the bitcoin price as you are making them out to be able to have in terms of their likely lame responses. and various problems that they have created for themselves over many decades. It's not like they can fix the problem that they even put themselves into without somehow teaming up with bitcoin rather than fighting it.. but hey, they likely are going to have various battles and hopefully not too many of us bitcoin HODLers and/or activists end up becoming casualties of whatever bullshit hostilities that they choose to direct towards bitcoin.
I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.
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