Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Pingrapole]

Is the poll still a thing?

Suggestion:

When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?

   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- After 2033
   -- Never

We’re still seeing 4 year cycles with the high around 12-18 months after the halving.



Obviously there’s no guarantee history repeats but we can only go with the information we have available right now. My estimate is we see $1,000,000 per coin in 2033 (a year after the 2032 halving) or in 2037 (a year after the 2036 halving).

I’m leaning towards it being 2037 at the moment but if we get a spot ETF soon & it takes us to, for example $300,000 or more in 2025 (a year after the 2024 halving) then I would say it’ll hit $1,000,000 before 2033. But as we are here with the info available now I predict $1,000,000 in 2037 so my poll answer is after 2033.

I agree with you because as repeated earlier the world situation was different everything was towards digital currency or coming towards, but now the situation is after the pandemic and due to various wars are different so in this scenario the previous iteration will never be the same, so it is better to think beyond 2033 and plan accordingly and be patient with an investment then of course we are Hopefully that is possible and before 2033 there will not be any change in the world because we will get the change earlier, but it will go to a worse situation because the ideas we are making before 2033 will be very difficult to fulfill.Speaking from my little knowledge.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- After 2033
   -- Never

Yeah agree <10 years.

And if BTC breaks $100k then crossing $1M is just 10x

Regarding the poll I think we have seen this or similar poll before.

Damn this imgur sh*t can’t see infofront’s old poll results.

After further reflection.. I think that AlcoHoDL's dates are mixed up.. and we should be trying to capture the cycles rather than mid-cycle, so it is problematic to state "before 2025
" for the first category and it would be better to say "before 2026" by "by 2025"

then the next categories would be
"2026-2029"
then
"2030-2033"
"After 2033"
"never"
[...]

My thinking in posting these ranges was using t+1 years, where t = Halving, as follows:
2024 [H] + 1 = 2025
2028 [H] + 1 = 2029
2032 [H] + 1 = 2033

My ranges are still cycles, just shifted 1 year into the future, in order to allow 1 year post-halving for price to catch up. Of course, all this is SOMA and suggestions are welcome, but I would insist that each range should span 4 years. I'm considering mid-year-to-mid-year ranges, you're taking whole years, and that's just semantics in my book, both are fine. Strictly speaking, you have a point in that, considering mid-year numbers, the first and last options should be "By 2025" and "From 2033 onwards". You are astute!

I guess that we are largely saying the same thing - especially since I was initially triggered with the same date being in each of the categories, and I had been considering them to each be 4 year periods too, so I had thought that you had intended them to be 4 year periods, as well, even though it can be a bit ambiguous if the same date overlaps in each of the categories.

I hate to have future expectations to be a lock-in based on what has happened in the past.. but it does seem to be a bit of an inconsistency to deviate from the past when there is no other model saying otherwise for the future - even though we might be able to anticipate that cycles are likely going to change somewhat in the future, but until they actually change, we don't really have any examples of them changing - yet...

So if we are talking about potential top prices for any cycle, the price dynamics of bitcoin has so far been very consistent based on calendar years, and it is so consistent that it is likely going to break.  We have so far ONLY had three tops and each of the tops are closer to 18 months after the halvening rather than 12 months after the halvening, so if historically you had been using 12 months in order to give you some kind of a rough guidance for BTC price peaks for the cycle, you would have been right around 6 months premature ejaculation for each of those three already happened cycles... In 2013, the cycle top was the beginning of December, and then in 2017 and in 2021, the cycle top was right around 17th of December for each of those two years.

Accordingly, even though we should not be wanting to lock ourselves into any timeframe that the peak should happen (like LFC likes to do and he has so far been right each time.. hahahahaha), it just seems way more straight forward to go towards the end of the calendar year for each of those future anticipated cycles (even though the halvening is also happening less than exactly 4 years too.. so has been moving to be sooner and sooner and sooner in the calendar year.. at least so far.... so therefore the end of the peak seems more logically to be the calendar year for each of those years (2025, 2029, 2033). Alternatively, if you don't want to do that, then you probably should specify the month that you would want to use for each of those years.. so that the categories are not overlapping.

tl;dr: I have a feeling that $1M/BTC will come around the 2030 mark. Feelings are not math & science, and I'm certainly not Merlin the magician, so that's that. Still, 2030 is not a long way to go, considering many of us are already a decade into this. All is fine. Slow & steady.

And 2030 would either be earlier in that particular cycle or just that the 2026-2029 cycle would end up extending out further.. which I guess I don't have any problems with those ideas, and surely we are just kind of guessing anyhow.

The more I think about the matter, it just seems that $1 million might be one of those "don't stop here it is bat country" kinds of zones - like $100, $1,000, $10k and what $100k is likely going to be.. . at least the first pass through seems more likely to be a kind of "don't stop here it is bat country"... yet again caveats should be thrown out there.. because it is difficult to really know how dynamics are going to actually end up playing out.. and sometimes reversals do end up happening right in the middle of what should have had been pass through zones, and even though I talk about them a lot, I mostly don't change much substantively about my buy/sell orders in such zones - except a wee bit on the margins.. 

[JimboToronto]

coffee good

 Mine's just okay this morning... I usually take my first coffee with Preev but we're out of Preev so I used ChartBuddy and it just doesn't taste the same.  Anybody know where I can get some Preev?

I prefer Bitcoinwisdom. Full-flavored, rich and satisfying.

[Greyhats]

Is the poll still a thing?

Suggestion:

When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?

   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- After 2033
   -- Never

Ah yes typical, take a great poll and argue about the options and their meanings. Since we are all torn trying to specualate on when the top is after a having cycle should we just go with a range as per OP?

In my own calculations, and forecasting I use the halving year as its the only constant cycle in cycle out. But then again my speculations dont need to be particular accurate based on time, +1/+2 years variances is ok. Gen Zoomer Outer here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:

When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

I know you guys are trying to be funny, but surely there is a serious point here too.

I know that some people suggest that you can never have enough bitcoin, but that truly does not really seem to be true.

So let's say that in 2016/2017 your entry-level fuck you status is $1 million, and so by 2017, you had already accumulated 500 BTC, so when BTC price crosses over $2k, you already have reached your entry-level fuck you status based on then BTC prices, but  you are still worried about using spot price as any kind of indicator, but since BTC prices went all the way up to nearly $20k in 2017 and dropped back down to nearly $3k at its lowest in 2018, but you had already had gone from your entry-level fuck you status all the way up to 10x your entry-level fuck you status and at most dropped down to 1.5x your entry level fuck you status.

To me it seem that largely you can just be selling coins whenever you like, as long as you are kind of attempting to maintain some kind of a stash, so even if you shaved off 10 BTC at $10k in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, you still have 460 BTC, and let's say in March 2020 you become a bit jaded about how much you need for entry level fuck you status, so you move up your consideration of entry-level fuck you status from $1 million to $2 million, you still may well have continued to have been o.k. shaving off 10 BTC for each of the years of 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and maybe you shaved 10 for each of those years off at $20k.. .so then now you are down to 430BTC.. and do you think that you might need to start to be a bit more frugal.. even assuming that 10 BTC per year is not really very sustainable. so you start to feel that you need to reign yourself in a bit better....

I guess my point is that there are quantities of BTC that are enough, and you may well not feel any kind of regrets for selling some of them from time to time, and probably my example of selling is not the greatest.. but it still does seem to show that some people might be in positions in which they likely have enough BTC...

Even right now using the 200-week moving average as the value determination price for a $2million entry level fuck you status, our current price is largely at the 200-week moving average (at $28k), so we are seeing that there is ONLY a need for 71.42857143 BTC in order to be at entry-level fuck you status, so if you have more than that amount, then you should be able to shave them off at your own discretion while keeping in mind that you might want to be careful not to go below that amount, but our guy who has 430BC likely has quite a bit of enough of a cushion to feel comfortable shaving off 5-10 BTC or more per year for several years.. but maybe someone who ONLY has around 100 BTC might want to be more careful in terms of budgeting how many BTC to shave off each year or even each quarter or month depending on how frequently s/he is shaving off coins. and/or the extent to which s/he is trying to be strategic in regards to such BTC shavings.

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

Yes, as long as that bitcoin stayed sold 

Trading and/or maintaining your stash through selling and buying back is another kind of story.

Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
   -- Before 2025
   -- 2025 ~ 2029
   -- 2029 ~ 2033   <--- My vote
   -- The Day after I die.
   -- Never

FTFY

It's OK. Anyone who has sold BTC will live to regret it. Sort of.

Nope, I don't think so and by the way lots of people sold off their BTC when the price was at the f*cking lowest but I don't think they are regretting although the regret is those that don't meet buying more.
Laszlo for example am sure isn't regretting buying a pizza with his mind blowing amount of BTC worth tons of cash in today and that's same occurrence that's going to be happening even when BTC reaches a million bucks because people will continue using their crypto currency @BTC

I was with you all the way until the end, Mr.suevie, when you used that dumbass term cryptocurrency and then suggesting that you are using that term but you really mean BTC.. so why the fuck use that term?  why not just say BTC?  Are you trying to sound smarter? and more objective? or like you have identified a category that has meaning?  and you are so brave because you specified BTC as being the thrust of your point. 

To me, it does not seem necessary to use the term cryptocurrency unless you might be talking about shitcoins or including shitcoins into your discussion, including if you might be talking about bitcoin too.. but as long as you are mostly wanting to talk about bitcoin, then you probably should say bitcoin. .. but there might be some points in which you might say.. this includes shitcoins too.. are you  pumping them or denigrating them might be optional...so mentioning shitcoins still might be topical, even in a thread that has bitcoin as its topic.

fuck shitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

^^^
Adding to AlcoHoDL‘s discussion

It’s not only us discussing $1M BTC this dude also thinks BTC can be  > $750K by 2026


https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1709886903338549499?s=46

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DireWolfM14]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[adultcrypto]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough for a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weakened dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

[coolcoinz]

Love how credible these guys are and it takes just a minute to verify them, so I'll leave this here:

"co-founder and chief executive of crypto exchange BitMEX who had projected that the price of bitcoin would skyrocket to US$50,000 in 2018."
https://www.ccn.com/top-5-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions-of-2018/

Also, in September of 2020 Hayes predicted that YFI (at 40k at that time) could reach $100k. A month after his prediction it was already below 30k and now going for only 5k. If you bought that when Hayes talked about it, you'd go bankrupt

[JayJuanGee]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough to a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weekend dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

Even though a weakening dollar may well end up contributing to bitcoin getting to $1million faster, it seems safer to be making predictions in terms of today's dollars, and yeah, it ends up screwing up some of your later predictions, so for example, if the dollar is normally cut in half every 10 years, but such cutting in half is accelerated, then it may well ONLY be worth 10-20% of its current value in 10 years, so an evaluation of $1 million is only worth $100k to $200k in today's dollars.. .. which is more bullish for the BTC price, but we should still be careful in terms of determining how we are thinking about  reaching our own entry-level fuck you status.., and how much BTC and/or anything else that we might need to be invested into based on such calculation attempts..

Love how credible these guys are and it takes just a minute to verify them, so I'll leave this here:

"co-founder and chief executive of crypto exchange BitMEX who had projected that the price of bitcoin would skyrocket to US$50,000 in 2018."
https://www.ccn.com/top-5-worst-bitcoin-price-predictions-of-2018/
Also, in September of 2020 Hayes predicted that YFI (at 40k at that time) could reach $100k. A month after his prediction it was already below 30k and now going for only 5k. If you bought that when Hayes talked about it, you'd go bankrupt

Bitcoin was not $40k in September 2020... maybe in September 2021.

Hopefully no one is going bancrupt from being bullish on bitcoin, especially since bitcoin is more of a longer term play rather than something that you fuck around in the short term... so anyone dollar cost averaging into bitcoin for the last 3 years, since September 2020, may be right around break even prices, but it should be a better position to be to have had been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin rather than not getting into it or just starting out right now...

So far in bitcoin, time in the market has tended to pay off better than attempting to time the market, so surely that means that the longer that you have been in bitcoin, then the more likely that you are in a better place than if you had not gotten into bitcoin.

You have been registered on the forum since April 2015 coolcoinz.. so if you had been buying $100 per week worth of bitcoin you would have invested $44,200 and you would currently have around 29 BTC... so hopefully whatever you have been doing in the past 8.5 years in regards to bitcoin or not has been able to at least match those kinds of levels of returns.

[OutOfMemory]

Memento?
Really great movie, most likely in my top 10 (if i had a toplist).
I would never have thought that i will end up like the protagonist.
OK, it's really not the same magnitude of memory loss, but i can quite feel the main character.

[adultcrypto]

i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

You think that's enough to a Bitcoin equal to $1m ? Well, I don't know the correlation, maybe a weekend dollar will be a stronger Bitcoin. It is actually possible that investors might look the way of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar.

Even though a weakening dollar may well end up contributing to bitcoin getting to $1million faster, it seems safer to be making predictions in terms of today's dollars, and yeah, it ends up screwing up some of your later predictions, so for example, if the dollar is normally cut in half every 10 years, but such cutting in half is accelerated, then it may well ONLY be worth 10-20% of its current value in 10 years, so an evaluation of $1 million is only worth $100k to $200k in today's dollars.. .. which is more bullish for the BTC price, but we should still be careful in terms of determining how we are thinking about  reaching our own entry-level fuck you status.., and how much BTC and/or anything else that we might need to be invested into based on such calculation attempts..

Happy you understood my point with the numerous typo errors which I have now corrected. One thing that is certain is that the dollar will always have inflation to contend with and that is to the advantage of Bitcoin. 
Personally, I have not been able to place an exact future price on Bitcoin as I feel that is somehow unnecessary. Rather I work with the mindset that Bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value over a time range like couple of years... this alone is enough motivation for me to buy and hold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com