Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[1715198050]

1715198050

[1715198050]

1715198050

[1715198050]

1715198050

[1715198050]

1715198050

[JayJuanGee]

It also looks like this charge downward is being led by bitfinex, which makes me think that it's a lot of people putting in shorts in an attempt to profit from a falling price...  This might end up being dangerous for them as another move up and more liquidations near the all time high can cause a short squeeze pretty easily.  Ultimately, it's squeezing the shorts that will make this market go parabolic now.  The ETFs make it so easy for anyone to short BTC, the market building up a lot of shorts is inevitable.  I think their timing is off though and it could sting them...  Imagine going short right before supply is cut in half.  That can't be a winning bet.

hahahahaha

And some of these guys who are shorting might not realize that we are still in no man's land, so the odds are not exactly in their favor to be shorting.. including that when we go through no man's land, yeah maybe we could get various corrections, but they are likely not going to be meaningful, and even if we make it through no man's land, there are limitations to the corrections that are available, and sure they might happen, but it is better to probably go with the trend rather than against it and perhaps start to think more seriously about shorts once we get into the $140k to $180k territory.. whether that is within a few weeks or a few months.. .. but yeah, they get anxious and they don't want to wait that long... and they want to gamble.. and so yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't.. I am leaning towards the won't side.. at least until we get a bit above $120k.

Even the dumps/dips are short lived and quite pathetic at the moment. Halving getting close, these Spot ETFs are really doing wonders for the price. Just wait for the supply shock post halving.

Maybe this time really is different and we are going to go seriously parabolic.

Maybe?

I am still thinking that it is pretty much the same.. 3 ups and a down, and so we will just look at how high it goes as we go and at some point it is likely to become unsustainable and we will need a lengthy correction.. but this time with BIGGER players engaged in some of the shenanigans and/or rug pulls or whatever other dramatic news ends up playing out.. when the longer term correction finally comes, and yeah, maybe the longer term correction does not end up going below $120k-ish.. who knows?  It partly depends upon where the top ends up being and how long it might take to get there.. whether it is a medium top in the $240 to $540 range.. or maybe it ends up slightly more bullish in the $540k to $1 million territory or maybe if it gets into the most extreme of the scenarios into the $1 million or more territories, then you know we gotta get some crashing back down from those kinds of price points... especially if it goes up too quickly at some point.. maybe even crashing back down 70% or more from the top to sub $500ks. to sub $300ks or even lower.. which also partially depends on where the top ends up being and how we ended up getting to such top.. in terms of both time and if there might have been some shenanigans on the way up. as well as shenanigans on the way down.. and if we are dealing with money, there are always going to be shenanigans.

I am starting to think $120k to $180k for 2024 - based on currently known dynamics and trends from ongoing ETF demand coupled with the halvening. (which is 2x to 3x) from $60k

Thus perhaps another 2x to 3x from the 2024 numbers for 2025 based on sheer momentum that has historically tended to go along with the cycles - which gives us $240k to $540k for 2025. 

Am I going too far?

I know my personal finances don't really rely on such or even give too many shits, but it is kind of difficult to ignore the outrageously limitations in supply in light of our current happenings.

Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... .. so I hate to pin myself down too much, even in what I had been describing what seems to be a kind of base case based on current circumstances and knowns... and I am not buying more BTC.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too... and who knows how many coins we are going to be releasing along the way. .some of us are gong to be releasing our coins, and I already pretty much have my release schedule already outlined . which does not even end up being very many coins sold.. but still lots of ongoing improvement in the needs to spend more..

~snip
Oh gawd... 

Now we are talking about which shitcoin happens to be less shitty.

Give me a break.   

https://twitter.com/WholesomeMeme/status/1767748675550220597

Ok.   Hint taken.  I will have to go look for my duck suit equivalent.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitebits]

[...]
Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... ..

It is already very visually happening on the blockchain:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/

I am not buying more BTC

HFSP

.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too

You got multiple? Damn. Withdrawing the above comment, congrats.

[JayJuanGee]

[...]
Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... ..

It is already very visually happening on the blockchain:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/

I am not buying more BTC

HFSP

.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too

You got multiple? Damn. Withdrawing the above comment, congrats.

I probably was overstating my position, and to attempt to explain, since 2015, I largely had assessed myself to have had been in a state of over-accumulation, which allowed me to feel comfortable selling coins without worrying about whether I had enough, yet part of my ongoing problem had been that much of the time I kept the money available for rebuying coins, so largely I had been of the position that I had no treally been injecting new money into bitcoin since 2015 - even though the records are not really clear about whether new money had been coming in, and many times, it is my impression that I have not been injecting new money into my investment, but then in late 2022, my cash reserves had gotten so low that I did end up injecting more money into my cash reserves that were authorized for bitcoin sales.. - especially during that period in which the BTC price was below $20k for several months, yet at the same time when the BTC price returned in to the upper $20k and then even more assurance after October 2023 that our November 2022 bottom of $15,479 was in.. There was going to be no more bottom, so there could be some assurance to pull out the extra money that had gotten inserted into the system on a seemingly temporary emergency basis.

So technically there is still buying with money that is already in the system. .and that would be how it should be preferred, and my net selling of BTC should be greater than my net buying of BTC - even though several run throughs of my sustainable withdrawal system, as shown through bitmover's rendition of it, shows a kind of back testing through the simulation tool that even really aggressive levels of BTC withdrawal is likely going to end up with the dollar values continuing to grow, especially if we measure BTC's value from the 200-WMA.. and that even works through back testing of more recent periods especially something spanning over the last 5 years and a 30% per year withdrawal rate. I could not even come close to those levels of withdrawal which is largely showing that my withdrawal rate that is much smaller than even the more conservative levels... and I have been more into following the rake tool instead of the above linked monthly sustainable withdrawal tool.

Oh, and yeah, thanks for pointing out the glassnode data, and surely we have ideas how people act in theory and maybe sometimes we can see what they are doing in terms of the data that is available, so surely if a lot of guys start to release their coins between $73k and $120k I would be very surprised if enough coins were to be released in order to keep up with the seemingly increased demand that is coming through current BTC spot ETF inflows and the additional ETF inflows that are expected to continue to increase through 2024 and 2025  - and yeah, we could end up being surprised if such BTC spot ETF inflows do not continue to increase and put demand on BTC, so in some sense, we cannot necessarily take the inflows for granted... or even take for granted regarding how many current BTC HODLers are going to be willing to take some or all of their coins out of cold storage in order to sell to Blackrock, et al.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy

[fillippone]

Observing 73,127@Stamp




New ATH

Wen is chopper?
Wen  grim reaper?

CCMF




Old image with close enough number.

Not exact number, sorry

[Toxic2040]

$73,185 observed       

another record day of inflows....14.7k

there seems to be some demand

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

So the heavenly hodlsleep did stamp an ATH on the boards

[Paashaas]

Goodmorning to another ATH!

[El duderino_]

Goodmorning to another ATH!

Getting ready for the morning WOD

[strawbs]

Well that really was a fine sleep hodl. And a fine waking hodl. Bitcoin - the gift that keeps on giving (even if it was a gift to myself).

I'm also really loving seeing what Saylor is doing with MSTR and surely it's only a matter of time before others start to follow his playbook. Pioneering the route towards de-dollarization.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Woke up to pee. New high  maybe we do another as I am going back to bed.

El duderino_


you got your wish bro nice

[d_eddie]

401k is worth around $750k.. so then that would generate about $3k per income per month in terms of a 4% withdrawal rate.

More like $2.5k/mo, actually.



Fixing the numbers
There's no party going on
I'm no party poop





#haiku

[BitcoinBunny]

So the heavenly hodlsleep did stamp an ATH on the boards

The Bitcoin Genie never lies.

The Dude would enjoy.
An overnight ATH…

Increasing while sleeping.
Sounds heavenly.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

75K soon surely.