Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... ..

yeah my wife complains about the amount of taxes we pay lately. i just tell her that if you dont want us to pay taxes we can always choose to be poor, as we only pay taxes when we make money.

she grudgingly agrees paying it is better.

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[philipma1957]

R.I.P.  Lou Gossett Jr


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Gossett_Jr.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Biodom]

Interrupting Buddy streak.
Where is everyone?

who is your "everyone", lol?

on a more serious note, people are just not being excited at 69-70K anymore.
they need at least a thou/day 

[Gachapin]

welcome to law, pompous rooster 

Craig Wright Assets Frozen by UK Judge to Prevent Him Evading Court Costs
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/29/uk-judge-freezes-craig-wright-assets-to-prevent-him-evading-court-costs/

6 million British pounds

mmh I thought he went 'full billionaire mode' 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Greyhats]

Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...

yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.

I have read your posts on this and others. The problem I have though is assigning any kind of probability to numbers above 250, sure there is a very tiny weeny .% probability and to me they are all like pie in the sky and not realistic. Its easy on one hand to say its only a "3.2x-is difference" but based on market cap your talking about going from ~1.3T and ~70k spot to  13T and ~700k spot. I cant wrap my head around that much capital injection happening this cycle. Dont get me wrong it would be great, and I might be severely underestimating retail fomo and etf + other cap injections along the way during this bull but at the same time lets be realistic.

[Biodom]

Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...

yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.

I have read your posts on this and others. The problem I have though is assigning any kind of probability to numbers above 250, sure there is a very tiny weeny .% probability and to me they are all like pie in the sky and not realistic. Its easy on one hand to say its only a "3.2x-is difference" but based on market cap your talking about going from ~1.3T and ~70k spot to  13T and ~700k spot. I cant wrap my head around that much capital injection happening this cycle. Dont get me wrong it would be great, and I might be severely underestimating retail fomo and etf + other cap injections along the way during this bull but at the same time lets be realistic.

I have a possible solution to your puzzle: this "cycle" will continue for longer than expected.
This way, it could get to 13T in about seven years at about 40% appreciation/year (on average) or roughly 2X of Nasdaq.
Or, get there sooner, say, by 2029 (at 60% a year) and then undergo a long term bear.
Witness a 8 year (about) bull market in Gold after ETF approval, followed by a 3-6 year bear (depending if you count from the lows or from the change in trend) and now 6-9 years of continuing bull.
Imho, we would get something similar, but not exactly, of course.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[sirazimuth]

Well I get a paid holiday today because apparently some religious dude died then came back to life or some such silly supernatural thing.
And then there's those strange giant bunnies prancing around with baskets of colored eggs scaring toddlers.
But I don't get a day off when the Flying Spaghetti Monster was resurrected.
I'm gonna write to my congress person and complain.

Happy Good Friday bros.... 

...and  GO BITCOIN

[NeuroticFish]

Might be a quiet few days on the forum, Good Friday, Easter Weekend etc. At least GBTC can’t sell anything for a few days now, hey.

I’d like to think we could be above $72,000 by Monday.

I was hoping that the ordinals spam would take a break already, at least until Monday evening, but no...
So I don't expect all speculators are on holiday either.
But it doesn't matter. Halving is ~24 days away.

[vapourminer]

[...] some religious dude died then came back to life or some such silly supernatural thing.

thats sunday dude

[philipma1957]

[...] some religious dude died then came back to life or some such silly supernatural thing.

thats sunday dude

well he died on 'good' Friday   he rose on Sunday after or so they say

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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