TL/DR
It may look like a peak when BTC and the noise around it is too heavily in the mainstream but one day that might just be Bitcoin itself becoming the mainstream, due to adoption like cars, electricity or the internet.
Comparison check as around a decade back I don't think I heard people talking about bitcoin on the street the way they do now, not even on the internet did it had the volume of discussion and engagements it does have now on all social platforms. Bitcoin to me is already a mainstream in the pipeline and unlike cars , electricity and the internet, the speed of bitcoin adoption is rapid than those even despite not having the government backing as the latter examples you had given. Within this circle able to break above a $100k price mark I am having that conviction that bitcoin will be gaining a 3x adoption that it's currently enjoying in another decade from now.
What you are saying is strange.. and even somewhat incoherent..
Yet one point that I would like to make is that even if you believe that a lot of people know what bitcoin is because they heard it's name, it is barely in its earliest stages of actual adoption, even though some rich people are front-loading their stacking and/or hoarding of it... so yeah, the front loading is going to cause the price to go up, yet mainstream will still have to come into it, sooner or later, and the BTC price is not going to necessarily correct down in order to accommodate their wishes to buy cheaper corn.
So good luck with any of those frameworks that consider bitcoin to either be a mature asset or to cap its growth at anything less than 20x to 50x before it might start to dampen in some of it volatility and violence during this period of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind that you seem to be downplaying, even if there might be periods in which you feel that you are right because of correlation to stocks or short period ups and downs along the way, while you are continuing to miss some of the BIGGER picture ideas..around the value proposition of my lil precious.
"Ultra Bullish: 250k" ?? I don't think you know what the badger is capable of
Haha I probably dont, I'm entering this cycle as my 2nd cycle. You could classify me as a bit conservative and I get that, but I'm also trying to be realistic too. Honestly if Ultra Bullish PT will be 400K+ then dont you worry:
My exuberance with BTC @ 400k > My anguish at being wrong
You don't have to worry about if you are right or you are wrong, since you are likely NOT selling anyhow.. or you are not trying to time the top, so who cares. Sure, you might shave some off along the way, in the even that you believe that you have enough or more than enough.. but that still does not mean that you have to be correct about scenarios that might happen, but do not end up playing out..
And surely ultra bullish (at $800k plus) is likely more than 3.2x your original number and at least 2x your amended number..
so then what problem should you have describing ultra bullish that does not end up happening.. part of the reason that it is "ultra bullish" is that it has lower odds of happening, and yeah, base case scenarios are in the ball park of $240k to $540k.. .. but even base case scenarios are not guaranteed to happen, so maybe they will or maybe they won't yet part of the reason that we might go through some of these scenarios is to help us to prepare financially and psychologically for both the more likely and the less likely scenario and maybe in your finances, you are even more conservative.. but yeah it would kind of suck for you to spend 4-6-ish years or maybe even more stacking up BTC and then blowing your whole wadd at $258k, and then if the BTC price continues to go up and you have little to no corns.. and at the same time, it may not end up correcting back down to either your sell price or to a price that you consider that it is "supposed to" correct down to in order that you would feel comfortable buying back to the extent that you are even psychologically fit by the time we get to that point.
My take on price targets, etc..longer term view...snip..
4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned by buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.
This one point is definitely important to make, will it smooth some of the rough edges of current cycle. I'm still much more aligned to the 4 year cycle, and its probably going to take a change in that to at first make me consider that there is change in it. It would certainly increase the % acceptance that the cycle has changed and will continue to change.
Some of the things that have changed, or at least different is all this movement pre halving. I expected a little bit of it but the prices is about 25-30% higher than I thought it would this early. That ETF volume is a monster, when Fink said earlier that "we see this kind of retail demand". Is retail the bulk of the buying? Have the institutions not really started yet. That was interesting way to say it, or does Fink consider everyone to be retail? If that the truth, we are in for wild ride of uppity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LssQegEHMgNope.. institutions have not started buying BTC yet... it takes a while to get institutions into the picture.. they are way less mobile than retail, even though the profile of retail can be quite varied in terms of kind and size of investor.. maybe consider it to be a kind of retail demand that was not captured by the buying BTC directly market.. a kind of retail that loves the ETF wrapper, but detests the idea of directly holding BTC or buying BTC through exchanges that may or may not be as trustworthy as their broker.
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..
Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.
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