Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Fck those bulltards on X.

There is currently no such thing as a bull market.

so when does the bull market starts for you this cycle?

I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it started when BTC fell below $20K. Since the bottom we’ve quadrupled the market cap and we’re still early enough in the cycle where another double from here seems more likely than not. However, this is the point where you start making sure your off-ramps are set and ready to go for when the time arrives.

For sure it does not hurt to cash out some BTC along the way, but your describing having "off-ramps" ready sounds as if you are planning and/or recommending to sell large portions of your BTC holdings, which truly does not seem to be a long term investor play (or plan), and it especially does not seem to be a smart idea for an overwhelming quantity of the worlds population that has little to no BTC... so maybe something close to 99% of the world's population has no bitcoin or hardly any bitcoin, so those folks should not be planning on selling shit during this cycle.. and so in that regard, you are addressing your post to a very small niche of folks who might even be in a position to sell any BTC, let alone large portions of their BTC..

is the cat bouncing up? 🆙

I think this is just pre fed jitters.

tomorrow the feds will stay put and we will go back over 70k

or not.

Sure, this could have had been a fake out.. or not.  It would not have had been the first time to experience a fake out, or not.

[philipma1957]

Fck those bulltards on X.

There is currently no such thing as a bull market.

so when does the bull market starts for you this cycle?

I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it started when BTC fell below $20K. Since the bottom we’ve quadrupled the market cap and we’re still early enough in the cycle where another double from here seems more likely than not. However, this is the point where you start making sure your off-ramps are set and ready to go for when the time arrives.

For sure it does not hurt to cash out some BTC along the way, but your describing having "off-ramps" ready sounds as if you are planning and/or recommending to sell large portions of your BTC holdings, which truly does not seem to be a long term investor play (or plan), and it especially does not seem to be a smart idea for an overwhelming quantity of the worlds population that has little to no BTC... so maybe something close to 99% of the world's population has no bitcoin or hardly any bitcoin, so those folks should not be planning on selling shit during this cycle.. and so in that regard, you are addressing your post to a very small niche of folks who might even be in a position to sell any BTC, let alone large portions of their BTC..

is the cat bouncing up? 🆙

I think this is just pre fed jitters.

tomorrow the feds will stay put and we will go back over 70k

or not.

Sure, this could have had been a fake out.. or not.  It would not have had been the first time to experience a fake out, or not.

well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while.

[ChartBuddy]

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[El duderino_]

I only know I drunk some red wine this evening ….
Had a good dinner
One to treasure and only hope more to come …

Cheers

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while.

I am pretty sure that if each of us is largely saying that the BTC price could go up, down, sideways or maybe it won't, then it is likely that both of us are going to end up being correct.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[philipma1957]

[edited out]

well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while.

I am pretty sure that if each of us is largely saying that the BTC price could go up, down, sideways or maybe it won't, then it is likely that both of us are going to end up being correct.

Brief and funny

[goldkingcoiner]

btc on exchanges at an all time low
I guess someone wants to buy / is buying cheap...

That is a bit terrifying if you hold your Bitcoin on an exchange... Imagine they refuse to give you your Bitcoin back because they don't have any?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

well one of us could be correct. or maybe it just goes sideways in the 66-68 slot for a while.

I am pretty sure that if each of us is largely saying that the BTC price could go up, down, sideways or maybe it won't, then it is likely that both of us are going to end up being correct.

Brief and funny

We are supposed to be mad at each other.

Don't you remember?

btc on exchanges at an all time low
I guess someone wants to buy / is buying cheap...

That is a bit terrifying if you hold your Bitcoin on an exchange... Imagine they refuse to give you your Bitcoin back because they don't have any?

There has been a trend of lower and lower supply of bitcoin being held on exchanges - so what else is new?

We already know that there is a risk in holding bitcoin on exchanges, yet I doubt that the longer term bitcoiners are holding very large portions of their coins on exchanges.

Mine are not exact numbers, but I recall having something like 50% of my BTC on exchanges in 2016-ish, and then in 2017, I reduced that down to 15-18%.  Then about between about 2018 and 2020,  I reduced to about 10-12%.. somewhere between 2021 and 2022 I got down to  8%, and even now there can be a bit of variance, but usually I will have between 3% to 5% of my bitcoin investment portfolio value on exchanges (or somehow held with third parties)..   

I consider these to not be unreasonable risks - including that I have always engaged in some levels of interactions with exchanges, and yeah, sure most of my losses in bitcoin do relate to issues with exchanges and even sim swap matters, so I can also understand that some bitcoiners are not going to want to engage in bitcoin through third parties - yet at the same time, our more major problem seems to be ongoing abilities to communicate with one another directly and to be able to buy, sell and transact peer to peer.

I continue to wish there were more ways to interact with BTC.. so yeah, these matters are taking time.,, If I go to a store and I want to buy something that is one thing, but another thing is if I go to a garage sale and I want to buy a desk or some furniture or maybe I want to buy my neighbor's car.. The state is so vindictive in various kinds of private transactions, including that we used to be able to self-report various kinds of transactions or not even report them, so yeah bitcoin is going to continue to play a role in these matters, and it is not going to necessarily be straight-forward when we might be asked to report transactions that we might consider to not need to be reported... Of course, the powers that be might want to know if I go to my local farmer to buy some chicken, milk, beef and some  vegetables... Many people are forcecd into using third party services for accounting conveniences, which truly might not be the better way to transact, even though the farmers might not even know and/or realize about bitcoin as one of their transaction possibilities.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[JimboToronto]

btc on exchanges at an all time low
I guess someone wants to buy / is buying cheap...

That is a bit terrifying if you hold your Bitcoin on an exchange... Imagine they refuse to give you your Bitcoin back because they don't have any?

Hopefully no one here is foolish enough to keep coins on an exchange. NYKNYC.

[goldkingcoiner]

I continue to wish there were more ways to interact with BTC.. so yeah, these matters are taking time.,, If I go to a store and I want to buy something that is one thing, but another thing is if I go to a garage sale and I want to buy a desk or some furniture or maybe I want to buy my neighbor's car..

Yeah I get the feeling. But I think the problem is that people would rather keep their Bitcoin as a store of value. And I get it. If I can spend whatever fiat that I have for any of my purchases, then I am going to use fiat. I know I don't want to part with some of my Bitcoin for at LEAST the next 10-20 years.

btc on exchanges at an all time low
I guess someone wants to buy / is buying cheap...

That is a bit terrifying if you hold your Bitcoin on an exchange... Imagine they refuse to give you your Bitcoin back because they don't have any?

Hopefully no one here is foolish enough to keep coins on an exchange. NYKNYC.

Well, not all of it. Gotta have a little. Just to make the government nervous.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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