A nice price action...
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
I appreciate most of your post, but still:
1) no link for the Ben Cowen charts? You must be slacking. You expect us to have to Google search for that charts / presentation that you could have had easily provided?
2) Why are we talking about 2028? don't we have to go one cycle at a time? Wouldn't you consider that we are still in the midst of a cycle? So you are suggeting that from here we get something in the ballpark of 3-3.5x (which yeah is $180k to $230k-ish) and then we correct back down to some place (maybe $70-$90k or perhaps we don't break back below $100k, yet that would be difficult to believe if we ONLY get up to upper $100ks or lower $200ks.. or maybe some other place? and then after we spend a bit of time consolidating in the sub $100ks and perhaps evenin the supra $100ks (but lower end), then we make another run for UPpity that would bring us up into the $360k to $500k price territory by 2028-ish? Maybe 2029? Those are somewhat bearish scenarios that seem to presume the disappearance of blow off tops, and surely we seem to have had experienced a somewhat stifled blow off top in 2021, yet does that really justify the disappearance of blow off tops in bitcoinlandia?
Are you really buying the mainstream media and/or perhaps the status quo financial pundits proclaiming that the various tools that they are putting into place - connected to bitcoin are going to be successful in terms of "taming" our lillie fiend? I am not opposed to the idea that such a thing could happen, yet I am not going to buy tame/stable as if it were a base case scenario and that blow off tops have disappeared (gone extinct) in this here asset class, which I remind you is not like any other asset class known to man, and likely is still in relatively early stages of adoption, which suggests that dee cornz is still a very immature asset class, even though from my perspective (for whatever that is worth?) you seem to be presuming some level of maturity within it.
Sure you might end up being correct, yet I would prefer you wipe that smugness off your face.. hahahahhahaha.. and get serious about dee cornz.
Look in the mirror at least 5 times per day, and repeat some kind of mantra: "I am going to stop being whimpy in regards to my bitcoin assessments and my bitcoin-related actions." Then try to do what you say and say what you do. You will thank me later.
If you had not noticed, that is a protip. ...and who is being 'lazy' here, huh?
But....here it is:
https://youtu.be/_aRjoXDneBw?t=52Was that so difficult? I took a quick look at it, and yeah the presentation is around 30 minutes.
By the way, you likely already know that Ben Cowen comes off as a bit of a shitcoiner in terms of his talking about bitcoin dominance as bitcoin dominance was some kind of a meaningful consideration, and then hedging with Ethereum.. which I was trying NOT to pay too much attention to the ethereum discussion while the video was playing in the background.
"smugness off my face"...that's personal, lol
I was probably subliminally just trying to provoke you a wee bit.
that said...it was funny..
I am not being anything about bitcoin, but just hodling and if that indicates some wimpiness, so be it.
Hey, to perhaps attempt to defend you, the whimpy ones have done way better than the no coiners and the ones who failed/refused to get involved in bitcoin.
Many times, including in bitcoin, it is way better to get involved in bitcoin and to get off of zero rather than to not get in, which truly over the years there have been a lot of folks who have been failing/refusing to get into bitcoin.
Surely, whimpy versus aggressive are relative concepts, and many of the aggressive investors into bitcoin have done way better than the whimpy ones, so long as they did not end up overdoing their level of aggressiveness and end up recking themselves. You have even pointed out (or emphasized) some of my own self-admissions of losing some coins in various exchanges and other kinds of more aggressiveness that I have practiced through the years, even though surely I consider myself to be somewhat conservative, but it still can be difficult to really compare with any kind of concrete comparison points, and not even that we need to go there in terms of potential OPsec jeopardizing specifics.
Not going to be doing in-out (with bitcoin, haha).
You are not going to get any disagreement with me about that. I have never criticized you for getting in and out and/or trading of bitcoin. My assertion has frequently been that you have likely ongoingly been taking too little of a position in bitcoin and getting distracted into various other kinds of investments... .. but yeah, surely guys are going to invest into what they are used to, especially if they had already gotten used to some other non-bitcoin investment prior to getting into bitcoin.
Personally, I would be quite satisfied with btc at 200K.
Wouldn't we all? Any of who have largely accumulated are not going to be complaining about BTC prices around 3.5x higher than they are now. Of course, for any guys who had not yet accumulated enough BTC, they are going to be paying higher prices for their BTC, even though their already established holdings will also go up in value, yet if they are still accumulating, they might still need to keep buying on the way up just to ensure that they are going to be able to keep accumulating BTC rather than gambling on dips that might not end up happening... and surely that might be one of my other dispute areas with you in regards to waiting for dips versus ongoingly buying.. so there can be a bit of a dilemma regarding the extent to which waiting for BTC price dips might be better than just ongoingly buying.
In this sense, I am longing for $1 mil btc as anyone else might,
Yes. .yet I thought that you were waiting for $10 million so that your 20-ish BTC will be worth $200 million... . .as if $20 million is not enough.
but realize that I might not have enough time to observe btc reaching those hefty goals.
Hence the possible conundrum between wants and means.
$1 million is not that far off... only about 15x higher prices from today's prices... doesn't really seem very unrealistic to be expecting this cycle or next cycle or perhaps no later the cycle after..
...... i am doing great with new chapters in life opening and old doors closing softly ....
Nice to see you toxicmoxic. "We" surely cannot rest upon all things staying the same, even if we might try to keep some consistency in our daily activities.. and even our abilities to carry them out.
What is the difference between a Godzilla candle and a gamma squeeze?
Someone squeezes wax
(Maybe Godzilla himself)
Godzilla candle!
#haikuOk.. I was thinking something similar.
NOT!!!!
~snipWell.. now you disclose.
Isn't that cheating?
Personally, I would prefer to here what dee homers gots to say.
I have not checked for accuracy but as JJG only gets two entries, I'm going to assume the entire table is BS.
You are going to have to get busy then if you want to make up for the misinformation that "we" ended up receiving.
I was on the fringes of sending uie pooie an s-merit for all of your seeming analytical work, even though it came off as wrong, yet when I heard that a botty potty did most (if not all) of the actual grunt work, my smerit-pushing stiffler se convertio its lil selfie into a noodle... which means that a noodle no doesn't work too well and ends up taking away most, if not all, of the pleasures and:
CCCCCCCCCIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, 
~snip Yeah, I meant to put a reference mark and a footnote but BBcode and tables suck so badly that I gave up trying and then totally forgot about it until I had posted. I just knew somebody was going to call me out on that! You can't get away with anything here
I ONLY "called you out" on it or mentioned it because you mentioned it. Otherwise I might not have had known because I was also a wee bit too lazy to completely go back and read what I wrote, so I just responded from memory.
As for what I gots to say, I can't even speak intelligently about the weather. People will say to me, "What a miserable day!" and I'll be like, "Yeah I wish a nice thick fog would roll in! What good is a drizzly day without a nice thick fog you can cut with a knife?! It's like a cake without the icing." and then they'll look at me sideways like I said something wrong and hurry away without another word.
I suppose each of us have our special areas of interest, and so part of the advantage of a thread like this is being able to hear some variance in perspectives, and maybe if we can get some arguments going from time to time, that might also be good to spicen things up... but yeah, it can also be a bit stressful to be arguing too much too.... so who's got time for that?
Lots of action today and I couldn't follow one bit as I'm in training all week (trying to get a Cisco CCNA certification).
Are we getting rich or not ?
I think the answer is largely yes for those of us who are mostly erroring on the side of accumulating of the cornz and/or holding... .which I mostly consider myself to remain in that camp.
Looks like Tesla just made their first Bitcoin transaction in 2 years. Speculation that they’re testing their wallet and software for accepting Bitcoin again in their shop. That would be a pretty big deal, but I’d really like to see them start accepting Bitcoin for vehicles again. This could spur adoption and send BTC back into price discovery.
Edit: Wow. They just moved a couple hundred million dollars to new addresses now. Something is definitely happening.
Let's keep an eye out and try to figure out whether they are the selling? Like lettuce hands?
Poll
