It really was a wimpy top wasn’t it. I didn’t sell anywhere near enough with hindsight but how were we supposed to know.
It is hard to know. In my own ladders I did have some additional sales that were largely structured between around $115k and $150k-ish.. in the event that we were to end up getting a whimpy top, yet it was hard to imagine a top that ended up being below $130k and even $150k seemed like it would have had been fairly whimpy.. and yeah, we got what we got, and even with my additional sales between $115k-ish and $126k-ish, I think the highest I sold was around $124.5k-ish.. and anyhow most of those extra funds resulted in buy backs for me between around $92k and $108k, so I mostly used up any of the extra generated funds by $92k.. which largely is within the bounds of my set up in which I am ongoingly trying to have some balance in my own preparations for either direction - even what we consider to be extremes (and our level of this particular whimpy top could also be considered as a kind of extreme - a scenario that was not expected).
It is what it is, if we have to wait a few years before moon then so be it.
Even though it can sometimes be unclear regarding whether there is a desire to merely cripple the golden goose or to kill it, and surely, those who appear to be in charge are likely not as much in charge as we might consider them to be, since sometimes momentum can end up getting created that even the initial manipulator(s) did not necessarily expect the consequences that ended up playing out.
Many of us have been holding bags through multiple, horrible bear markets so we know what to expect.
Even though you have been largely correct, I have been bothered by the extent of your cycle rigidity, since about 2019 or so? I cannot remember exactly when you became so rigid about cycles, even though you surely have become more rigid, perhaps partly due to them working out for you (so far). I do recall around 2018 or maybe 2019 that you were whining about not having had sold enough in 2017, so you were saying that you were not going to let that happen to you, so in that regard, you said that you were going to sell everything around $50k or maybe it was even at some lower prices that you said that you were planning to sell everything... yet then at the same time, you ended up modifying some aspect of your perspective on bitcoin in terms of recognizing and appreciating the long term aspect of bitcoin (rather than just seeing it as a trade).
Of course, even if you seemed to modify some aspects of your thinking and your perspectives in regards to bitcoin (over the years), you still have some portion of those trader inclinations in your personality, and surely there is nothing wrong with our own grapplings with our own personality and fitting our personality into what we do and how we approach our various life balances.
I just hope the next bull market is better.
There has been so much paper bitcoin and attempts to tame and manipulate bitcoin through these various traditional financial players, so it is hard to really gauge how the various changes are going to play out. For sure, there are various traditional financial players who are trying to profit from bitcoin as much as they can, and they are likely fairly neutral in regards to bitcoin bullish scenarios since they can make money whether bitcoin is going up, down or sideways as long as their is action in the market... .. and so some of them could switch over to something else if they see that being able to suck value out of bitcoin is drying up, so they are like going to continue to try to profit from bitcoin in whatever ways that they are able to, and perhaps attempting to control pumps to the extent that they are able to keep bitcoin corralled.. which it can be difficult to know about future success and even how the various markets play off of each other, whether we are referring to gold and/or silver and/or other world battles around money, monetary controls, people control, monitoring and other evolving happenings - including how AI (and//or data centers) may or may not fit into the picture.
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I hope you would realize (at some point) that 200wma, 200dma, etc are just mental constructs.
They might indicate something "real" going forward or they might not.
Whether you call them mental constructs or not, they are averages of the trade-weighted price, and can be used to help from getting too distracted by short term (such as spot price) fluctuations.
Just like your recognizing that you had measured from the 2021 tops... to make your points, I was largely responding to your own problematic construct to choose to measure and make your seemingly "whiny" point(s) from our 2021 tops.
If i recall correctly all cyclists were swearing that 200wma always holds...
Don't overly generalize, since it is not good to proclaim "all" even though surely prior to 2022, there was a lot of agreement that the 200-WMA represented the bottom.. .and so yeah, we had right around 16 months between June 2022 and October 2023 in which the BTC price was mostly below the 200-WMA, and got as low as 35% below the 200-WMA.
until it was undercut by about 20-28% in 2022.
Additionally, you buy and sell at spot, not some "average".
Of course, buys and sells are done at spot price... yet you can valuate your holdings based on averages in order to help to temper your wee widdo selfie from getting too overly jerked around by BTC spot prices.
My personal conviction did not change and my post mostly indicated the frustration with the world, which, obviously, doesn't get it (bitcoin) at all.
If that sounds like fud, so be it.
As a fellow HODLer (or HODLer wannabe) I can agree with you on the currently existing frustrations that are present in this here cat.
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