Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ermaios]

I said TOO MUCH back then, but nothing dishonest.

Well, that’s a matter of opinion, isn’t it?
You tried to manipulate sentiment, and actively distorted stats and numbers. What was your job during that time capsie?

To your defence, you were not the only one.

Plus I doubt any bars around me take LBTC...

About that! What’s up with Liquid’s peg-in capacity showing negative numbers on clarkmoody?
I’ve been meaning to ask.

I would love to learn from everybody's opinion but probably I should rather buy a dishwasher and join in that debate

You can’t ask the wolf about the sheep's feelings, can you?
#dishwasher.questions.only

I do remember now!

But i think you don't worry too much anyway about opinions of a few forum members, especially if they suffer from something best described as "account-schizophrenia" 

Good one!
For the record - one at a time, OK?

That said, it’s solid advice in my book, and perhaps capsie should take it. Something tells me we’re going to have new sessions, so …

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

It seems that the issue of attacking Iran is just a matter of days because everything that is happening points to it. An incredible amount of weapons, ammunition and fuel is already near Iran, and satellite images show that a huge amount is still arriving. A large explosion was recorded today near Shiraz, where it is believed that one of the largest warehouses of Iranian missiles is located.

https://x.com/WarMonitoring_x/status/2024089664664310198

 

[Gachapin]

It seems that the issue of attacking Iran is just a matter of days because everything that is happening points to it. An incredible amount of weapons, ammunition and fuel is already near Iran, and satellite images show that a huge amount is still arriving. A large explosion was recorded today near Shiraz, where it is believed that one of the largest warehouses of Iranian missiles is located.

https://x.com/WarMonitoring_x/status/2024089664664310198

 

means another dump is on the way probably

[Ermaios]

means another dump is on the way probably

Buy the rumours, sell the news!

Here, knock yourself out:

https://unlimitedhangout.com/

[Gachapin]

I would love to learn from everybody's opinion but probably I should rather buy a dishwasher and join in that debate

You can’t ask the wolf about the sheep's feelings, can you?
#dishwasher.questions.only

just poking... didn't expect many answers in the first place.

not the first time I asked about the OP-Return changes

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Bigjoe158]

It seems that the issue of attacking Iran is just a matter of days because everything that is happening points to it. An incredible amount of weapons, ammunition and fuel is already near Iran, and satellite images show that a huge amount is still arriving. A large explosion was recorded today near Shiraz, where it is believed that one of the largest warehouses of Iranian missiles is located.

https://x.com/WarMonitoring_x/status/2024089664664310198

 

means another dump is on the way probably

I have said it before and i will repeat it again that Trump is a bigger threat to world peace than Iran. If Iran has nuclear weapons, has Iran attacked the USA? Trump always like showing that American strength against a weaker country. Russia invaded Ukraine yet Trump couldn't talk Russia out of that madness but is quick to mobilize against Iran. Yes i know that the USA is the world power but civility is out of place for Trump. Trump should not lead Americans to war over his high-handedness of things.

[cAPSLOCK]

I would love to learn from everybody's opinion but probably I should rather buy a dishwasher and join in that debate

You can’t ask the wolf about the sheep's feelings, can you?
#dishwasher.questions.only

just poking... didn't expect many answers in the first place.

not the first time I asked about the OP-Return changes

Well, I will just take it one more level ridiculous, but I also have a Bosch and would agree with all the things that were said here. It's reliable and quiet to a point of being almost disturbing, has the little red light and does a decent job on the dishes. So a lot of us here seem to like that line. 

But it does suffer from what a lot of new tech suffers from, which was a desire to make it more efficient by making it more inefficient. 😁 In this trade-off, I believe the amount of time required to complete a wash cycle is ridiculously long, but the amount of water and resources used to do so is very small.  Whatever.

It's a good machine though.

[cAPSLOCK]

The sparkle fairy has been continuing to repair her wand. I don't think she's quite ready to start shooting sparkles around yet, but she knows that in time it's going to be the right moment to sparkle.

At the same time, however, she has been practicing some dance moves, particularly inspired by one of our own members.  She is convinced that he must be a very good dancer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

You sure that you aren't going to get ur lil ass(hole) in trouble for your sybil attack?

Oh, that sounds scary, I couldn’t care less if I was banned from here to Mars, got it?
Actually I would consider it a favour, I *really” don’t want to be posting around here, it’s more of a reaction I can’t help sometimes.

Yes.  I noticed that you seem to have some self-control difficulties.

You may well end up getting ur lil selfie into trouble.

“Trouble” again, my middle name is trouble you punk.

Good one.

Reminds me of this here situation:



And?  Guess who is "the punk" - pushing his forum membership luck.   

Oh perhaps you are referring to (CT) = Cryptotourist?  that little insignificant twat?

Boy, have I damaged you. FYI, it’s crypto-titter.

Finally, you provided some content that has some value.

The sparkle fairy has been continuing to repair her wand. I don't think she's quite ready to start shooting sparkles around yet, but she knows that in time it's going to be the right moment to sparkle.
At the same time, however, she has been practicing some dance moves, particularly inspired by one of our own members.  She is convinced that he must be a very good dancer.

#nohomo

even though, stalking vibe.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Well the price absolutely blows at the moment, four year cycle very much alive. We should bottom before the end of the year, I am thinking there’s a good chance we go below 50k and that should then be the bear market bottom.

I am a big buyer under 55k. If I play it right, I might even get most of the coins back that I sold in the bull market. This game is too easy man, every single time.

TL;DR - My prediction is bottom out in 2026 at sub 50k. Then new bull market begins with a top in 2029 of close to 200k or over 200k if we’re lucky. Hold your ammo though, I think we go lower than 60k. Go all in below 55k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Well the price absolutely blows at the moment, four year cycle very much alive. We should bottom before the end of the year, I am thinking there’s a good chance we go below 50k and that should then be the bear market bottom.

I am a big buyer under 55k. If I play it right, I might even get most of the coins back that I sold in the bull market. This game is too easy man, every single time.

You are being arrogant.  But, hey.. you do you.

I will concede tht sentiment is really in the doldrums which even causes the reaching of a new ATH to be difficult to achieve prior to the 3rd quarter, amongst the better case scenarios.

Of course, there could be some outrageously crazy scenario that causes BTC prices to shoot up, either in the second quarter (perhaps less than 25% odds) or within the next 6-ish weeks of the first quarter (perhaps less than 1.5% odds), so yep.. the good things about bets is that guys put their money where their mouth is.. ..

I do consider that we are currently in a bear market, which largely to me means that the bottom is likely not in, meaning that the odds are greater than 50% that a new low would be touched, yet I have difficulties particularizing those kinds of downity scenarios --- even though lower $50ks and even sub $50k is also not off the table. though I am not sure how great could go in the odds?  50/50?  I hate to be buying at those prices, even though i do have buy orders that go down every $2k down to $57k and then they are every $1,500 down to about $43k, and then they are every $1,200 down a bit below $40k.. . and then I run out of money and would likely have to start DCAing from other sources at that point (meaning injecting new money in)... which surely these are not good feeling times.. for any of us who are holding decent amounts of wealth in bitcoin and did not expect such a seemingly whimpy top.

Of course, many of us likely realize that a lot of this current messed up situation comes from various kinds of paper bitcoin, and it does not help when it seems that guys are getting out of real bitcoin and into the various paper bitcoin products - including holding very many coins on exchanges...

And, by the way, I am not really against holding 10% to 20% of a bitcoin stash on exchanges and/or other third parties.. .yet it seems that so many folks are not really learning how to self-custody, and various disincentives around self-custody continue to exist.. which likely denigrates bitcoin's value proposition.. .. and surely a lot of the fucktwat manipulators would like to severely incapacitate (or impair) aspects of self-custody bitcoin so that the rich and connected can still have bitcoin as their own little play tool, yet to harass and punish any actual normie who is using bitcoin outside of their monitor and control channels.

TL;DR - My prediction is bottom out in 2026 at sub 50k. Then new bull market begins with a top in 2029 of close to 200k or over 200k if we’re lucky. Hold your ammo though, I think we go lower than 60k. Go all in below 55k.

You might be correct this time.. You fuck.  #nohomo 

 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It really was a wimpy top wasn’t it. I didn’t sell anywhere near enough with hindsight but how were we supposed to know.

It is what it is, if we have to wait a few years before moon then so be it. Many of us have been holding bags through multiple, horrible bear markets so we know what to expect.

I just hope the next bull market is better.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Apr 14 2021-btc local high of 64863-peak optimism (better than later in Nov 2021 with a nominal peak slightly higher).
Feb 17 20252026, almost four five full years later, btc is almost at the same spot-67500.
Yes, i picked a local peak and maybe a local bottom, so what?

First, of all FTFY.

Second of all, such BTC price dynamics are not a "so what."

It's a "what," and it is also: "I'm a whiner."

Think about the 200-WMA.  Do you think that the 200-WMA has any meaning in regards to how "we" are currently fewing?

Let's take a look at such 200-WMA on each of the respective dates:

Apr 14 2021 - $11,170

Feb 17 2026  -  $58,229

That is a 5.2x difference (towards the UPpity, of course). Meaningful, no?

Many of us who have been involved with dee cornz for a decent amount of time (perhaps greater than a cycle or a cycle and a half) likely recognize that BTC spot prices tend to go all over the place (including places that "we" might prefer them not to go)... so if we want to maintain some level of sanity, we need to try not to get overly distracted by such great variance in the BTC spot price (and become overly judgmental about it).  Perhaps great levels of volatility are almost in the territory of inevitable (even though we cannot necessarily know the direction of the great levels of BTC spot price volatility).  

Personally, I think that the 200-WMA holds some significance and some gravitation in regards to attempting to measure bitcoin value and even to use such measurements in regards to our own action choices  (do we act or not and how do we "feel" psychologically and/or financially whether "we" might consider ourselves to be in our BTC accumulation stage, maintenance stage and/or in our liquidation (sustainable withdrawal) stage.. .and yeah, the stages might not be exactly strict, either..

Are you going to tell me that the 200-WMA does not count and it has no significance in regards to bitcoin's growth (whether price, network effects or otherwise) in the past nearly 5 years?

Perhaps this indicates bitcoin volatility or overall inability of the populace to grasp it's advantages, which is not logical to me.
Or, maybe people don't want bitcoin since they've got all other shiny toys: 7 fab stocks (not at the moment, though), pump in PM, etc.
All I know is there is nowhere to protect your earned money long term, and it's just sad.

Have you heard of bitcoin?  It has been a great place to store value, at least so far, and for guys who have longer term timelines.  

Remember our recovery since March 2020?

We did not even have to buy in March 2020 (as long as we did not sell), and surely the guys (even mindrust) who had been mostly accumulating bitcoin prior to March 2020 and perhaps even those guys accumulating bitcoin through the end of 2020 (of course mindrust knocked himself out of that grouping) they likely could have had gotten an average cost per coin that was around $10k or even quite a bit below $10k, even though surely I recognize and appreciate that even someone who was gung-ho about bitcoin from January 2016 to December 2020 (4 years), he might still have had challenges accumulating very much BTC if he was ONLY ready, willing and/or able to invest in the ballpark of $30 per week or less, yet it would still been around 4.4 BTC, and a guy investing $100 per week during that time would have had been close to being set for life with around 14.65 BTC accumulated.

There is nothing even really close to beating that (especially if we are talking about assets open to everyone and everyone as long as they had discretionary funds that they could put into bitcoin and stash away for 4-10 years or longer... in the example I gave, 4 years of accumulating and then 6 years of waiting.. .Still not bad, and perhaps even better for the guys who continued to accumulate from January 2021 until now (to supplement their 4 years of accumulating BTC between 2016 and 2020).

Sometimes, i think that the world just become unbalanced-just look at all of the CT and Youtube bruhaha.

I don't know what CT is, but I know that you are a fuddy duddy.  

Oh perhaps you are referring to (CT) = Cryptotourist?  that little attention seeking troll wannabe insignificant twat?

 

I hope you would realize (at some point) that 200wma, 200dma, etc are just mental constructs.
They might indicate something "real" going forward or they might not.

If i recall correctly all cyclists were swearing that 200wma always holds...until it was undercut by about 20-28% in 2022.
Additionally, you buy and sell at spot, not some "average".

My personal conviction did not change and my post mostly indicated the frustration with the world, which, obviously, doesn't get it (bitcoin) at all.
If that sounds like fud, so be it.

[Biodom]

It really was a wimpy top wasn’t it. I didn’t sell anywhere near enough with hindsight but how were we supposed to know.

It is what it is, if we have to wait a few years before moon then so be it. Many of us have been holding bags through multiple, horrible bear markets so we know what to expect.

I just hope the next bull market is better.

According to main cyclists beliefs, each cycle has less upside...so, if cyclists are correct, it won't happen and the top cannot be higher than 126X1.5=189K, then back down to 66K (-65%)...and then it is dead, for real, caused by inability (or close to it) of block producing on an industrial scale...and cyclists would have killed it.

My hope is that this cycle nonsense would stop and we start growing at a semi-steady rate (30-40% declines are acceptable).