Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Feri22]

Also, one of the bigger US based online poker sites started accepting bitcoin as a deposit option, and probably a bitcoin withdrawal pretty soon as well.
http://www.parttimepoker.com/winning-poker-network-adds-bitcoin-as-deposit-method

and a little older news, Zynga is accepting bitcoin too..
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/01/06/bitcoin-back-over-1000-thanks-to-online-gaming-company-zynga/

And nobody cares, cause China is about to almost completely ban bitcoin, which will crash price to 300-400

Yeah yeah, nobody cares about China anymore, everybody knows they will unban it later, move on....

Ha ha, ok, we'll se in two weeks

We'll see in two years

You're complaining about lack of interest for Overstock news (extremely short-term) and now talking long term?!
You can't mix apples and oranges and be taken seriously

Yeah yeah bear, whatever 

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[JorgeStolfi]

As others have pointed out, people buying things with bitcoins (whether through Bitpay or similar service, as seems to be generally the case, or by direct barter) is the same thing as selling them.  Besides acting to lower the price of bitcoin, that is the opposite of "hodling", right?

Ordinary people still have no reason to use bitcoins (rather than old money) to buy things on retailers like Overstock.  So that option should not bring more old money (USD etc) to the Bitcoin market.

Speculators and miners who want to leave the Bitcoin game now have the option to cash out in merchandise (at a few merchants) rather than in old money.  That only makes it a bit easier for them to decide to leave, and hence take old money out of the market.

So the Overstock news is "good news" only for True Believers, who did not need it to believe anyway...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vdcc]

As others have pointed out, people buying things with bitcoins (whether through Bitpay or similar service, as seems to be generally the case, or by direct barter) is the same thing as selling them.  Besides acting to lower the price of bitcoin, that is the opposite of "hodling", right?

Ordinary people still have no reason to use bitcoins (rather than old money) to buy things on retailers like Overstock.  So that option should not bring more old money (USD etc) to the Bitcoin market.

Speculators and miners who want to leave the Bitcoin game now have the option to cash out in merchandise (at a few merchants) rather than in old money.  That only makes it a bit easier for them to decide to leave, and hence take old money out of the market.

So the Overstock news is "good news" only for True Believers, who did not need it to believe anyway...

Yep. Although spending coins (selling them for $) through Bitpay or Overstock-Coinbase is better (longterm, for bitcoin as a currency) than hodling.

[hyphymikey]

We have reached the smileys per page threshold on the last page. Prepare for a crash!

 

[Feri22]

Why is nothing happening? Overstock not enough to take us back to >1000? WTF?

Fiat must hit the exchanges first, so give it some time.

I think Overstock news isn't market moving news.
Its been in the works for some time,and the market tends to price things in b4 they happen.
it does give me more confidence to buy more cheap coins ( if coin ever cheap happen... come on poeple SELL MORE COINZ! )
at this point whats really going to move the market into a 10K + bubble is the news of random bank bail-outs or bail-ins or wtv global financial problems. slowly but surely more and more poeple will wake up to whats really going on, get mad, and invest in bitcoin paper wallets.

But why on the other hand every fart from China has bigger effect than these news? I would think that we are already 100% over it, but i have feeling we are not yet...?

PS: How can I help to create some global financial problems?  

1) a lot of market participants are bearish simple because they are holding 1000% or more profits. so any bad news is a good reason to grab profits. ( this profit taking period feels like its almost over... )

you can help  simple by USING bitcoin and not dollars

So you don't believe China will take us again in sub 500 in end of the month how vdcc wrote?

[solex]

Because nobody knows what the price is without China. China is responsible for the entire rise from $110. The silk road crash ended when China started buying. There are people who think even that the silk road crash would have continued lower without China, below $110, maybe all the way back to $60. Then China brought the price all the way up to $1250. For the past 3 months every exchange has simply followed the Chinese price like a slave. Now every time there is bad news the price just drops like a rock without any resistance. Then the price recovers because China started buying again - every time. People think "oh now China news has been factored in" but it hasn't. I STILL observe all exchanges following every movement of China like a salve - it is wired into all the bots and the strategies of all the traders - like an automated process. Anyone who thinks China isn't still leading is fooling themselves. So what happens if China is removed from the equation completely? Nobody knows where the drop would end, where real support on other exchanges would kick in, and what the true value is without China. It is some variable anywhere from $90 to $900. It is a mystery. Sure the news adds value but from what basis? Let's say overstock adds $50. $900 + $50 = $950. But also $90 + $50 = $140. Nobody knows so they are cautious.

A lot of your analysis is very good, but this is seriously off-track.

China was not the primary mover from $110 to $1242, it was SecondMarket and other investor/financial/Wall Street types tailgating on their initiative, plus the Vancouver ATM news. China added fuel to the fire. Say that China was 40% of the rally. Well, China is not going to zero, even after all the controls are in, it may contract 50%. So that leaves 80% of the mega-move intact. Then add Overstock, enthusiasm in LATAM countries, etc. The $800 level looks solid unless there is some seriously bad news like a major Western government trying a dumb "banning" stunt.

[Erdogan]

How long until quintuple digits? I recommend researching villas, private jets and supercars that you would like to buy within the next months so you are ready. Might even get to purchase it with Bitcoin then.

So you don't want to buy a coin now for the common good? Sounds suspiciously selfish. (sarcasm).

[Spaceman_Spiff]

While reddit is panicking about a potential 51% Attack by GHASH... No-one notices that fiat is under a permanent 100% attack!

Haha, nice one !  Paradigm shift bitchez :-).

[JorgeStolfi]

1) a lot of market participants are bearish simple because they are holding 1000% or more profits. so any bad news is a good reason to grab profits. ( this profit taking period feels like its almost over... )

One cannot claim a profit until the bitcoins have been exchanged for old money, merchandise, or services.

Those who profited 1000% are those who bought at 100 USD and sold at 1000 USD. Obviously they do not have the bitcoins any more and cannot "grab profits" again.

Those who have bought at 100 USD and not sold yet may want to cash out with profit at any time, most likely when they suspect that the price will not rise fast enough in the future. 

Those who have bought at 1000 USD will only be able to make a profit if the price rises again above that level.  They may despair and sell at a loss.

you can help  simple by USING bitcoin and not dollars

That is the same as saying "sell your bitcoins".  Good for hoarders, bad for the price...

[windjc]

What is all this nonsense about bitcoin being used as a currency being bad for bitcoins price???  Are we that myopic that we will suggest a few more bitcoins going through coinbase is going to dampen prices??!!  And the people making these suggestions are the SAME who complain about the price going up too fast. What. A. Joke.

So what if it dampens prices short term. Long term we need adoption and this is a big step. One of hundreds that are needed.

Some of you are just trolling out of boredom I suppose.

[solex]

1) a lot of market participants are bearish simple because they are holding 1000% or more profits. so any bad news is a good reason to grab profits. ( this profit taking period feels like its almost over... )

One cannot claim a profit until the bitcoins have been exchanged for old money, merchandise, or services.

Ever heard of "paper profits" and "mark to market". Normal stuff in mainstream finance. Bitcoin is no different.

[adsdas]

Lol that stamp dump

[JorgeStolfi]

China was not the primary mover from $110 to $1242

It is evident that all the markets, including China, have been tied together to this day.  Since its volume is 5x that of any other market, its is a reasonable guess that it is the elephant that is dragging the dog rather than the other way around.

Whoever is the leader, the reaction on the others is very quick. Perhaps one can tell who is the leader by looking at the minute-by-minute trade data. 

(Methinks that it does not matter whether the Huobi volume is due to humans or robots. Manual day traders generally use "dumb" strategies that make them behave like robots, only slower ones.)

[windjc]

China was not the primary mover from $110 to $1242

It is evident that all the markets, including China, have been tied together to this day.  Since its volume is 5x that of any other market, its is a reasonable guess that it is the elephant that is dragging the dog rather than the other way around.

Whoever is the leader, the reaction on the others is very quick. Perhaps one can tell who is the leader by looking at the minute-by-minute trade data. 

(Methinks that it does not matter whether the Huobi volume is due to humans or robots. Manual day traders generally use "dumb" strategies that make them behave like robots, only slower ones.)

Much of chinas exchange volume was non-Chinese.

[samson]

The whole China thing was a complete load of horseshit from the beginning to the end.

[mellowyellow]

Lol that stamp dump

Huobi went the other way

I have no idea which way this will go by tomorrow. Could be anywhere, 50/50 for me for now.

[seleme]

Because nobody knows what the price is without China. China is responsible for the entire rise from $110. The silk road crash ended when China started buying. There are people who think even that the silk road crash would have continued lower without China, below $110, maybe all the way back to $60. Then China brought the price all the way up to $1250. For the past 3 months every exchange has simply followed the Chinese price like a slave. Now every time there is bad news the price just drops like a rock without any resistance. Then the price recovers because China started buying again - every time. People think "oh now China news has been factored in" but it hasn't. I STILL observe all exchanges following every movement of China like a salve - it is wired into all the bots and the strategies of all the traders - like an automated process. Anyone who thinks China isn't still leading is fooling themselves. So what happens if China is removed from the equation completely? Nobody knows where the drop would end, where real support on other exchanges would kick in, and what the true value is without China. It is some variable anywhere from $90 to $900. It is a mystery. Sure the news adds value but from what basis? Let's say overstock adds $50. $900 + $50 = $950. But also $90 + $50 = $140. Nobody knows so they are cautious.

A lot of your analysis is very good, but this is seriously off-track.

China was not the primary mover from $110 to $1242, it was SecondMarket and other investor/financial/Wall Street types tailgating on their initiative, plus the Vancouver ATM news. China added fuel to the fire. Say that China was 40% of the rally. Well, China is not going to zero, even after all the controls are in, it may contract 50%. So that leaves 80% of the mega-move intact. Then add Overstock, enthusiasm in LATAM countries, etc. The $800 level looks solid unless there is some seriously bad news like a major Western government trying a dumb "banning" stunt.

And Silk Road crash went all down to 70$, lasted for few hours only and recovery had heck all to do with China.

[seleme]

China was not the primary mover from $110 to $1242

It is evident that all the markets, including China, have been tied together to this day.  Since its volume is 5x that of any other market, its is a reasonable guess that it is the elephant that is dragging the dog rather than the other way around.

Whoever is the leader, the reaction on the others is very quick. Perhaps one can tell who is the leader by looking at the minute-by-minute trade data. 

(Methinks that it does not matter whether the Huobi volume is due to humans or robots. Manual day traders generally use "dumb" strategies that make them behave like robots, only slower ones.)

Much of chinas exchange volume was non-Chinese.

And much was fake

[bitbrasil]

As others have pointed out, people buying things with bitcoins (whether through Bitpay or similar service, as seems to be generally the case, or by direct barter) is the same thing as selling them.  Besides acting to lower the price of bitcoin, that is the opposite of "hodling", right?

Ordinary people still have no reason to use bitcoins (rather than old money) to buy things on retailers like Overstock.  So that option should not bring more old money (USD etc) to the Bitcoin market.

Speculators and miners who want to leave the Bitcoin game now have the option to cash out in merchandise (at a few merchants) rather than in old money.  That only makes it a bit easier for them to decide to leave, and hence take old money out of the market.

So the Overstock news is "good news" only for True Believers, who did not need it to believe anyway...

A big brand using Bitcoin is good for marketing. More people will hear about it. So this should bring more "old money" to the bitcoin market.