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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
Total Voters: 68

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336697 times)
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virtualfaqs
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January 13, 2014, 12:12:33 AM
 #75581


3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.

Stop loss orders work for me.

Doesn't work for me. I'd rather let the market run rather then not making an informed decision while I'm asleep. I think there in lies the problem. I just care too much when my money is in BTC and have to check charts, price, FUD, every minute. I'm not 100% fiat obviously. Just enough that I'm not forced to check 24/7.

Hodling until the days of an extremely high price, or a time when volatility is extremely low, will be well worth the stress involved.

If you are a day trader, then the stress is part of the job with this market.

I might be the first person to go bald due to stress caused by bitcoin lol. I had 95% of my savings in bitcoin by the end of February, so I've been on a hell of a ride since then (currently dissolved).


Days of extremely high price? We hit MtGox $1090 from $450 in the last month. As far as I'm concerned $600 at the time was considered a high price for me. The price right now $940 is considered high. This trend has been incredibly hard to predict as we've pretty much flatlined after every other tremendous drop. I suppose if the market was behaving with my trades it would be less stressful, but so far I've made nothing but incorrect trades since the last drop.

The problem is there just isn't a time with low volatility. With every new merchant, FUD, or news means more research and the process starts over again.

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January 13, 2014, 12:13:13 AM
 #75582

That is one of the things I still don't understand.  Suppose that Bitcoin is used to make payments equivalent to a total of M dollars per day, worldwide.  How does one derive from that number a "base value" (market price apart from speculation) for 1 BTC in dollars?

Supply and demand and what people think it's worth.
Also, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_discovery
That is the market price (currently ~850 dollars per BTC), including the effect of speculation.  

For example, the base price for steel plate (simplifying a lot) is defined by the price/suply curve of steel plate factories and the price/demand curve of the industries that use steel plate.  That base price may be magnified or reduced by speculative trade, to yield the market price.

For bitcoins, if the price of each BTC is P, then obviously to have M dollars of payments per day one must transfer M/P bitcoins per day.  But that volume will include multiple uses of the same bitcoin in the same day.  It will also include "virtual" uses where payments in BTC are made by transfers between bank-like Bitcoin accounts, with only occasional transactions realized in the blockchain (just as today most dollar payments are made without any transfer ofr paper money).

So, a key unknown parameter is the factor F that relates the total payment volume in BTC (M/P) to the number of distinct bitcoins needed to realize that volume.
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January 13, 2014, 12:15:58 AM
 #75583

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.
I am Brazilian. I will spare you the history of Brazilian inflation, suffices to say that the currency was devaluated by a factor of 2.75 quintillion (2.75 x 1018) in my lifetime. So I do know something about the world of "fiat".  Undecided


Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not.  


This is a common misconception. Disregarding the dayly/weekly/monthly swings, the appreciation will continue. It is not over. You have not lost the train. The reason is simple: There is a lot of people that are not currently users, many have heard but do not understand, and most people have not even heard of it. Due to the reservation demand that each user creates, the value per bitcoin will increase with new users. There is still a long, long way to go. Just jump on and you will be good.

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January 13, 2014, 12:19:51 AM
 #75584

http://trading.i286.org/

Who runs this? Is there a way to give suggestions? I'd like a filter to remove from the trade history all trades under 0.1 BTC. Those bots are getting really annoying. Other than that, it works great!  Grin
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January 13, 2014, 12:26:53 AM
 #75585

Huobi approaching earlier low:
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January 13, 2014, 12:32:48 AM
 #75586

I smell 🐳🐋🐳🐋🐳🐋


🚆🚄⬆🌕

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January 13, 2014, 12:38:28 AM
 #75587

What do squares smell of?
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January 13, 2014, 12:48:03 AM
 #75588

What do squares smell of?

I see whales, trains and too the moon.

Well, mb300sd does. I sure do not.
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January 13, 2014, 12:49:20 AM
 #75589

Bizarre story of a penny stock gold company switching to bitcoin mining and to develop an exchange; claim to have 550k bitcoins already!!  Huh

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1074434?ref=feeds/latest


Pump and Dump?  Wink
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January 13, 2014, 12:50:56 AM
 #75590

I was looking through the penny stock forums the other day and saw that too. I thought about making a thread here but didn't bother. What a load of crap. A budding bitcoin exchange doesn't need any help from a public ticker from the caveat emptor pinksheets. It's a shame that penny stock pusher scum are latching to bitcoin popularity/success for their latest scams now. I hope it doesn't give bitcoin a bad name.
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January 13, 2014, 12:54:49 AM
 #75591

I was looking through the penny stock forums the other day and saw that too. I thought about making a thread here but didn't bother. What a load of crap. A budding bitcoin exchange doesn't need any help from a public ticker from the caveat emptor pinksheets. It's a shame that penny stock pusher scum are latching to bitcoin popularity/success for their latest scams now.

It's going to be a theme for the foreseeable future. 
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January 13, 2014, 01:02:34 AM
 #75592


Explanation
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January 13, 2014, 01:04:41 AM
 #75593

A very well known German news site is writing about the FIAT system and how it will crash sooner or later and about that Cryptocoins like Bitcoin is the new gold like how real gold was in the 19xx´s

http://www.welt.de/finanzen/article123780452/Der-Krieg-um-das-sichere-Geld-der-Zukunft.html

Bad translation from me but another good news for Bitcoin Wink

Anyway, hoping for a short crash to buy more coins and get rid of my FIAT on the bank. Only FIAT I need is the FIAT to pay food and stuff.
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January 13, 2014, 01:05:35 AM
 #75594

I noticed there aren't really any details about the exchange or business plans for how it intends to be successful - all you get is a link some static under construction page. All the promoters keep posting is bullish news about bitcoin itself (as if the revenue of overstock is the revenue of BITC.PK). Duh I knew that I already - but why invest in your company? The readers might as well just invest in bitcoin itself.
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January 13, 2014, 01:07:54 AM
 #75595

I noticed there aren't really any details about the exchange or business plans for how it intends to be successful - all you get is a link some static under construction page. All the promoters keep posting is bullish news about bitcoin itself. Duh I knew that I already - but why invest in your company? The readers might as well just invest in bitcoin itself.

Yeah the link I posted is to some cnn user created content, not a real CNN piece. Total pump and dump.
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January 13, 2014, 01:10:57 AM
 #75596



goodbye cruel world!
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January 13, 2014, 01:13:55 AM
 #75597

*chart

goodbye cruel world!

is it going to break down finally?

i wana change the poll...
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January 13, 2014, 01:26:16 AM
 #75598

I opened up my fortune cookie and it read "live by the Huobi die by the Huobi - Chinese proverb".
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January 13, 2014, 01:26:38 AM
 #75599


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January 13, 2014, 01:30:30 AM
 #75600


Cryptocurrencies pay no dividends and have no "destructive" demand. So they have no base price to anchor the speculation, even remotely.


They have a fundamental value which is described by PQ=MV.
Destructive demand in this case means savings.  Dividends in this case means deflation.

Deflation means change in price, so that is not "base value" but the very unknown variable that the market has to define.

Savings is not "destructive" because the bitcoins saved will be traded again depending on expected price.  Indeed every bitcoin is always someone's "savings" except for an instant while it is being traded.

(Perhaps one may consider that bitcoins are "destroyed" temporariliy while a transaction is awaiting confirmation from the net, if they cannot be traded or used for commerce in that interval.  From that "consumption" and predicted volume of commerce one may be able to compute a "base value" that does not depend on speculation, assuming that Bitcoin will be the only cryptocoin in use.  However, the volume of "consumption" depends on the speed of confimation.  Is that predictable?)

Savings which are never dishoarded are effectively destroyed.  This manifests as low velocity relative to the total.  In fact, since transactions are much more efficient, the velocity of non-hoarded coins can be expected to become large relative to inflationary currencies.

Since PQ grows as the economy grows, a productive return is realized, which is analogous to a dividend.  Ownership of a non-inflationary currency is very much like owning the total market, and receiving all of its dividends, in that regard.

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